|
Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 8 (10/25/2021). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
========================================================================================================
Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
========================================================================================================
1 Andrew Schell Walter Johnson 2022 15:42.4 1
2 Jackson Megary Walt Whitman 2022 15:56.0 2
3 Sebastien Breton Winston Churchill 2022 16:03.5 3
4 Edward Lyness Montgomery Blair 2022 16:04.0 4
5 Sadou Sow Gaithersburg 2022 16:08.2 5
6 Michael Ward Walt Whitman 2022 16:20.0 6
7 Lamar Wilson Northwood 2022 16:20.1 7
8 Nathaniel Encinas Winston Churchill 2023 16:24.0 8
9 Lucas Corea Richard Montgomery 2022 16:25.5 9
10 Frederick Alfonso-Frank Montgomery Blair 2023 16:29.1 10
11 Julien Higgins Winston Churchill 2022 16:30.5 11
12 Kieran Fitzgerald Bethesda Chevy Chase 2022 16:32.9 12
13 Griffin Beckley Walt Whitman 2022 16:34.3 13
14 Gage Osborne Northwest 2023 16:35.7 14
15 Noah Fisher Richard Montgomery 2023 16:37.1 15
16 Colin La Winston Churchill 2023 16:37.8 16
17 Henry Burd Winston Churchill 2022 16:38.2 17
18 Nathaniel Davis Northwood 2022 16:41.5 18
19 Nathaniel Riker Thomas S. Wootton 2024 16:45.3 19
20 Caleb Dastrup Poolesville 2023 16:46.2 20
21 Jeriel Williams Springbrook 2022 16:48.5 21
22 Yarhiv Simhony Walter Johnson 2022 16:50.3 22
23 Sean Cunniff Walt Whitman 2023 16:51.4 23
24 Ibrahima Cisse Albert Einstein 2023 16:52.7 24
25 Henry Kaye Richard Montgomery 2022 16:53.3 25
26 Jonah Pachman Bethesda Chevy Chase 2022 16:58.1 26
27 Mateo Gros-Slovinska Walt Whitman 2025 17:00.1 27
28 Jonah Plotkin Walt Whitman 2023 17:00.2 28
29 Jose Ramirez Gaithersburg 2022 17:00.6 29
30 Calix McCormick Walter Johnson 2024 17:00.7 30
31 Matias Ketema Wheaton 2023 17:02.6 31
32 Alexander Risso Montgomery Blair 2024 17:02.8 32
33 Joshua Lopez Magruder 2023 17:03.9 33
34 Aaron Longbrake Poolesville 2023 17:04.6 34
35 Ben Dutko Walter Johnson 2023 17:08.6 35
36 Andrew Sidawy Winston Churchill 2022 17:10.0 36
37 Ben Waterman Walt Whitman 2023 17:11.5 37
38 Pablo Roig Walt Whitman 2022 17:12.0
39 Braden Welby Winston Churchill 2023 17:13.7 38
40 Jason Wang Thomas S. Wootton 2022 17:13.7 39
41 Matthew Chou Winston Churchill 2022 17:14.6
42 Hunter Whitten Bethesda Chevy Chase 2024 17:15.0 40
43 Sofiane Compaore Springbrook 2023 17:15.2 41
44 Clark Didavi Gaithersburg 2022 17:15.7 42
45 Patrick Mozden Albert Einstein 2024 17:16.3 43
46 Jeremy Simon Bethesda Chevy Chase 2022 17:16.3 44
47 Etana Heda Springbrook 2023 17:16.6 45
48 Kenny Monroe Clarksburg 2022 17:17.0 46
49 Philip Kwan Walt Whitman 2023 17:17.0
50 Adam Brodsky Walter Johnson 2022 17:18.3 47
51 Josiah Lim Damascus 2023 17:19.0 48
52 William Beane Poolesville 2023 17:20.7 49
53 Gruem Kuney Northwood 2022 17:21.4 50
54 Ajibu Pascali Northwood 2023 17:21.7 51
55 Samuile Kuney Northwood 2022 17:22.0 52
56 Zain Ahmad Richard Montgomery 2022 17:22.5 53
57 Mark Cunniff Walt Whitman 2022 17:22.5
58 Phillip Golotyuk Richard Montgomery 2024 17:24.1 54
59 Tyler Sauvajot Thomas S. Wootton 2023 17:24.9 55
60 Matt Uhl Walter Johnson 2023 17:25.1 56
JVU1 Ryan Day Walt Whitman 2022 17:25.6
61 Ezra Gashaw Wheaton 2023 17:26.0 57
62 Alexander Fitenko Walter Johnson 2022 17:26.4 58
63 Noam Tuchman Sherwood 2023 17:27.3 59
64 Lucian Cook Springbrook 2022 17:27.6 60
65 Dylan Schmidt Walter Johnson 2023 17:28.3
66 James Mozden Albert Einstein 2023 17:28.4 61
67 Nolan Brenowitz Richard Montgomery 2022 17:29.0 62
68 Quinn Renaghan Bethesda Chevy Chase 2022 17:29.5 63
69 Kehan Bhati Quince Orchard 2023 17:32.0 64
70 Daniel Chin Winston Churchill 2023 17:32.4
Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
=================================================
Schoole Projected Points
=================================================
1. Winston Churchill 55
2. Walt Whitman 71
3. Walter Johnson 135
4. Richard Montgomery 156
5. Northwood 178
6. Bethesda Chevy Chase 185
Four Ranked Runners: Springbrook
Three Ranked Runners: Albert Einstein, Gaithersburg, Montgomery Blair, Poolesville, Wootton
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 8 ranking published on 10/25/2021 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year. Weather can also be a major factor.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. In the past, I omitted 2018 as an outlier due to heavy rains leading up to the meet. 2018 is represented by the gray dots highest on the chart. All other years were dry with ideal conditions. This year, the five day forecast is showing more rain leading up to the meet on Saturday. I don't expect the meet to be a mudfest like 2018, but I chose to include all years in the average line including slower years like 2011 and 2018. This balances out the ultra fast years like 2017 and 2015. If the weather makes a turn for the worst on Friday into Saturday, just look at the gray dots representing 2018 to see how much a rain-soaked course impacts times. Male runners in 2018 were on average 23 seconds slower than the average line.
Under the assumption that 2021 will be an average year, meaning that this year's middle tier "top 100" varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red dot curve. The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I adjusted all times up and down until I felt that I had the best overlay with the 9-year average. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average line, paying little attention to the top ranked runners. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
 |
