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Divisional Analysis Week 3
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2008-09-22


Girls Standings

Northwest

2-0

Churchill

1-0

Walt Whitman

2-1

B-CC

1-1

Quince Orchard

1-2

Walter Johnson

0-3

Damascus

2-0

Wootton

1-0

Sherwood

1-1

R. Montgomery

0-1

Magruder

0-1

Gaithersburg

0-1

Clarksburg

2-0

Blair

1-0

Springbrook

1-1

Paint Branch

0-1

Poolesville

0-1

Einstein

0-1

Seneca Valley

3-0

Rockville

3-1

Blake

2-2

Northwood

1-1

Kennedy

0-1

Watkins Mill

0-2

Wheaton

0-2

Boys Standings

Walter Johnson

3-0

Churchill

1-0

Northwest

1-1

B-CC

1-1

Walt Whitman

1-2

Quince Orchard

0-3

Sherwood

2-0

Gaithersburg

1-0

Damascus

1-1

R. Montgomery

0-1

Wootton

0-1

Magruder

0-1

Clarksburg

2-0

Blair

1-0

Springbrook

1-1

Paint Branch

0-1

Poolesville

0-1

Einstein

0-1

Northwood

2-0

Blake

3-1

Seneca Valley

2-1

Rockville

2-2

Kennedy

0-1

Wheaton

0-2

Watkins Mill

0-2

Boys Predictions
Northwest over Whitman 
Northwest over Landon 
Landon over Whitman 
Einstein over Clarksburg 
Einstein over Paint Branch 
Clarksburg over Paint Branch 
Sherwood over Wootton 
Sherwood over RM 
RM over Wootton 
Rockville over Wheaton 
Churchill over WJ 
Churchill over B-CC 
WJ over B-CC 
Northwood over Blake 
Northwood over Watkins Mill 
Northwood over Kennedy 
Blake over Watkins Mill 
Blake over Kennedy 
Kennedy over Watkins Mill 
Gaithersburg over Damascus
Blair over Springbrook 
Girls Predictions
Northwest over Whitman 
Northwest over Stone Ridge 
Whitman over Stone Ridge 
Clarksburg over Einstein 
Einstein over Paint Branch 
Clarksburg over Paint Branch 
Wootton over Sherwood 
Sherwood over RM 
Wootton over RM 
Rockville over Wheaton 
Churchill over WJ 
Churchill over B-CC 
WJ over B-CC 
Blake over Northwood 
Watkins Mill over Northwood 
Northwood over Kennedy 
Blake over Watkins Mill 
Blake over Kennedy 
Watkins Mill over Kennedy 
Damascus over Gaithersburg 
Blair over Springbrook


Division I

The division I boys title comes down to the hilly, narrow trails of Cabin John Park. Walter Johnson is coming into the matchup 3-0, recently taking down Northwest in a dual meet and Mount Hebron at the South Carroll Invitational. They are hot, but the last time they met Churchill in a scrimmage, Churchill murdered them with depth. WJ certainly will not be able to sweep the top three spots with Churchill's Sean King in the race. Churchill has not been too shabby lately, recently finishing as the top Maryland team at the Oatlands Invitational. They should be able to end WJ's winning streak as long as they don't get confused which course they are running.

Up front should be the battle for the best Sean in MoCo as Sean King and Sean O'Leary have their rematch from the earlier scrimmage. Matt DK of B-CC will also be the mix.

The Walter Johnson girls enter this meet 0-3 in divisional meets, but their winning percentage is deceptive. They raced Northwest tight last week and should be able to mix it up with Churchill just as well. Churchill is 1-0 in divisional match ups, but coming off of a lackluster performance at the Oatlands Invitational, they will need to be prepared for a tough race. B-CC got past Quince Orchard last week with surprising depth and should be expected to contend in this tri meet as well.

The Northwest boys' only hope for the divisional title is if Churchill beats WJ and they can beat Churchill in their final dual meet. Even then it is still uncertain. Of course they also need to get past Whitman in the Landon tri meet. With Brandt Silver-Korn not running a race yet this season and Andrew Palmer not taking dual meets too seriously, this should be a great opportunity for Northwest to race hard as a pack and easily take down a weaker opponent. Their third place finish in the Varsity B race at the Oatlands Invitational on Saturday was a step back in the right direction and this will be a race to keep that momentum going.

If you asked me three weeks ago who would win a dual meet between the Northwest and Whitman girls, I would have said it wouldn't even be close, but a new talented freshman pops up at Whitman each week. One of these freshmen, Anna Ryba, is so talented that she posted the 13th fastest overall time at the Oatlands Invitational and took down several of the area's top runners. She was still 11 seconds behind Northwest's Britt Eckerstrom, so a one-on-one rematch between the two will be intense. This team battle is going to be close, too, but I believe Northwest will hold off Whitman to remain undefeated.

Division II

The one and only question to be answered in Division II this week: Will the Damascus boys suffer the same fate as Wootton? Last week, Gaithersburg swept the top three spots against Wootton only to be swarmed by a pack of Patriots. Unfortunately, the damage was done and Gaithersburg got the win thanks to their top-3 sweep. Damascus is clearly the better all-around team, but this matchup is not about which team is better. Simply put, this matchup is about whether Thomas Arias can beat any one of Gaithersburg's top three. Thomas Arias ran 3 seconds faster than Gaithersburg's Shane Stepek at the William and Mary Invitational this weekend, albeit in separate races. On the Gaithersburg home course, you can throw those three seconds out the window. All the pressure lies on the shoulders of young Mr. Arias.

Division III

Last week I claimed that the Clarksburg boys would really have their work cut out for them. This week I really mean it. I can't imagine a much closer matchup than the Clarksburg vs. Einstein boys teams. Einstein ran Blair down to the wire last week, but call it youth or inexperience, they could not hold off the charging Blazers in the end. They will get a chance to redeem themselves against a Clarksburg team that they beat earlier in the year at the Magruder Invitational. Clarksburg, however, is 2-0 in divisional meets this year and always tough head-to-head.

Division IV

I still blew all of my division IV predictions last week, but after dropping in on the Rockville quad meet, I have a much better idea of what is going on in this division. Every team in the division looks bigger and faster than they have the last few years. Wheaton supposedly added one more girl to their squad, making every public school girls team in the county a full 5-person team. When was the last time that happened?

So now that we actually have real teams, who is going to win this thing?

It seems that Seneca Valley can run a little bit, taking down each team at the Rockville quad. Although SV is off this week, their girls should not face any more challenges the rest of the way.

After the SV boys lost to Northwood in the opening week, Northwood is the boys team to beat. And did you see Northwood's Enricco Reumante running 17:36 at Oatlands last weekend? Holy smokes. He will give WM's David Gaynor all that he can handle in this one. Blake will challenge Northwood with Kennedy and Watkins Mill in on the fun this week at Blake.





Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

Anonymous
2008-09-26 14:56:09

The Division 1 race at Cabin John Park was not a true reflection of abilities. A terrible course could be blamed for part of the results; several participants got lost, there were hikers and bikers on the path, and part of the race traversed the parking lot, where moving buses and cars needed to be avoided. In every 10k I have ever participated, there were always course marshalls to make sure that participants knew where to go and to make sure that nonparticipants stayed off the course for the time of the race. In the future, some better planning on WJ's part is in order!

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