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Statistically Generated County Rankings
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2008-10-15


**FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY**

Mocorunning is again attempting to do the absurd: predict times and places for the top ~60 public school athletes in the upcoming county championship. These rankings and times are based on the statistical individual rankings that have been published on this site for three years.

Read about this ranking system before questioning it. No opinion or thought goes into this. It is simply a fun and easy way to track and objectively rank a large number of athletes. The actual county championship results may not look anything like this, but the system tends to be reasonably accurate when it comes to statistical models predicting human performance.

Teams with five or more ranked runners are scored at the bottom. Again, this is based on stats, not opinions.


Week 6 Public School Ranking Athlete School Year Points Projected Preseason Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Overall Ranking
1 Solomon Haile Sherwood 2009 245.1 15:27.4 1 1 1 1 1
2 Andrew Palmer Whitman 2010 212.6 15:43.7 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
3 Sean King Churchill 2009 149.8 16:15.1 11 8 7 7 5 4 4
4 Nicolas Escobar Magruder 2010 145.7 16:17.1 5 6 12 9 10 9 5
5 Kyle Balderson Sherwood 2009 138.9 16:20.5 4 4 5 6 6 7 7
6 Sean O'Leary Walter Johnson 2010 138.0 16:21.0 29 33 23 12 8 8 8
7 Antonio Palmer Gaithersburg 2009 125.3 16:27.3 2 2 3 5 4 5 9
8 Chris Gregorski Magruder 2009 119.5 16:30.2 12 11 16 16 13 13 10
9 Roni Teich Walter Johnson 2009 115.1 16:32.4 16 18 14 15 11 12 12
10 Matthew Davey-Karlson B-CC 2009 110.2 16:34.9 15 14 11 13 14 15 13
11 Vikas Bhatia Gaithersburg 2009 106.1 16:36.9 6 5 9 10 9 11 14
12 Chris Miller Northwest 2011 105.3 16:37.4 9 13 13 14 12 14 15
13 Wayne Bartholomew Quince Orchard 2010 104.5 16:37.7 19 16 26 29 27 20 16
14 Matt Bernstein Churchill 2009 91.1 16:44.4 25 23 19 23 23 22 18
15 Rutvij Pandya Blair 2009 89.5 16:45.2 17 17 21 21 17 18 19
16 Alex Willett Walter Johnson 2011 88.2 16:45.9 24 20 20 16 20
17 Thomas Arias Damascus 2010 86.6 16:46.7 33 29 27 25 21 23 21
18 Bobby Sonken Northwest 2011 80.5 16:49.7 27 21 18 22 19 19 22
19 Ishan Dey Walter Johnson 2010 76.1 16:52.0 28 31 40 43 30 27 23
20 Conor Spaulding Quince Orchard 2011 74.1 16:53.0 28 44 37 34 31 24
21 Shane Stepek Gaithersburg 2011 71.3 16:54.4 24 22 19 24 25 26
22 Brandt Silver-Korn Whitman 2010 67.9 16:56.1 3 3 8 8 40 27
23 John DiNardo Northwest 2009 67.8 16:56.1 13 12 20 32 26 28 28
24 Jatin Narang Clarksburg 2010 66.2 16:56.9 26 29
25 Enricco Reumante Northwood 2011 66.0 16:57.0 38 37 24 30
26 Greg Vogel Blair 2009 63.8 16:58.1 30 37 41 38 30 31
27 Jacob Lowe Sherwood 2009 56.5 17:01.7 43 52 43 36 32
28 James McNamara Richard Montgomery 2010 53.8 17:03.1 36 36 32 34 33
29 Cecil Jonas Damascus 2010 51.4 17:04.3 47 48 39 37 35
30 Eliot Gerson B-CC 2011 51.1 17:04.5 29 30 35 39 36
31 Nicholas Regan Walter Johnson 2011 51.0 17:04.5 38 37
32 Ben Constantinides Damascus 2010 50.7 17:04.6 34 40 46 47 45 43 38
33 William Draffin Churchill 2009 48.0 17:06.0 26 26 31 28 28 42 40
34 Justin Rheingold Churchill 2011 46.6 17:06.7 35 33 36 44 41
35 Josh Ellis Walter Johnson 2012 45.3 17:07.4 47 50 42
36 John Ingraham Northwest 2009 44.2 17:07.9 20 20 39 46 42 45 43
37 Drew Katz Whitman 2010 43.8 17:08.1 39 40 46 44
38 Jackson Reams Sherwood 2012 43.0 17:08.5 45
39 Nick Gummo Northwest 2009 41.3 17:09.4 14 15 25 35 31 35 46
40 David Wilson Poolesville 2010 40.5 17:09.8 30 34 41 42 51 48 47
41 Willy Wise Springbrook 2011 36.2 17:11.9 33 34 44 51 49
42 Jeremy Batt Richard Montgomery 2010 34.9 17:12.6 56 54 50
43 Alex Arias Damascus 2011 34.6 17:12.7 41 45 45 41 41 51
44 Jacob Cantor Richard Montgomery 2011 34.0 17:13.0 52
45 Jack McCullough Richard Montgomery 2010 34.0 17:13.0 53
46 Charlie Ramirez Damascus 2011 32.8 17:13.6 42 44 53 62 54
47 Nate Toll Sherwood 2009 32.6 17:13.7 49 50 58 55
48 Dawit Zewede Einstein 2009 29.8 17:15.1 55 46 47 56
49 Sam Martin Richard Montgomery 2011 29.2 17:15.4 53 49 49 57
50 Tarek Elhage Churchill 2010 29.1 17:15.4 42 54 64 59 58
51 Andrew Finkelstein B-CC 2009 28.4 17:15.8 49 56 57 53 59
52 Thomas McNamara Quince Orchard 2010 27.3 17:16.4 32 52 54 55 65 60
53 Jon Constantinides Damascus 2010 26.0 17:17.0 35 45 55 61
54 Hayder Cherinet Paint Branch 2011 22.7 17:18.7 50 60 68 62
55 Eric Damtoft B-CC 2010 22.2 17:18.9 56 57 58 67 63
56 Olivier Poulain Northwest 2010 21.0 17:19.5 36 48 59 62 64 65
57 David Gaynor Watkins Mill 2009 20.2 17:19.9 32 37 57 62 59 60 66
58 Phillip Shriver Walter Johnson 2009 16.6 17:21.7 61 61 68
59 Jonathan Loewy Wootton 2009 14.2 17:22.9 69
60 Mark Mechak Magruder 2010 10.8 17:24.6 52 70
61 Sei Masuoka Churchill 2010 6.4 17:26.8 60 63 57 71
Walter Johnson 81
Sherwood 118
Churchill 134
Northwest 145
Damascus 167
Richard Montgomery 208


Week 6 Public School Ranking Athlete School Year Points Projected Preseason Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Overall
1 Jessie Rubin Wootton 2010 313.8 18:53.1 4 4 5 5 3 2 1
2 Abby Spitler Gaithersburg 2010 274.6 19:12.7 3 2 2 3 2 1 2
3 Britt Eckerstrom Northwest 2011 270.0 19:15.0 1 1 1 1 1 6 3
4 Aimee Moores Quince Orchard 2009 261.9 19:19.0 2 3 4 4 5 3 4
5 Alyssa Henshaw Northwest 2010 260.4 19:19.8 13 11 9 11 9 9 5
6 Anna Bosse Walter Johnson 2011 258.3 19:20.8 11 10 10 10 6 5 6
7 Anna Ryba Whitman 2012 252.9 19:23.5 3 2 4 4 7
8 Addie Tousley BCC 2009 241.2 19:29.4 5 5 6 6 10 7 9
9 Maryam Fikri Churchill 2010 233.7 19:33.1 9 6 7 8 11 10 10
10 Shayna Barbash Whitman 2010 219.2 19:40.4 10 9 11 7 7 11 11
11 Alex Giedd Churchill 2010 199.1 19:50.4 6 7 8 12 12 12 12
12 Stephanie Joson Quince Orchard 2010 193.7 19:53.1 8 12 14 14 14 14 13
13 Amy Ferro Rockville 2010 162.0 20:09.0 15
14 Lauren Sumner Clarksburg 2010 152.3 20:13.8 15 16
15 Madeline Kelly Quince Orchard 2009 145.4 20:17.3 31 19 19 20 18 18
16 Janna Domico Damascus 2009 137.2 20:21.4 23 20 16 17 18 19 19
17 Andrea Maxwell Wootton 2010 132.1 20:23.9 23 24 24 25 21
18 Alexandra Phillips Whitman 2012 131.0 20:24.5 32 32 27 21 22
19 Taylor Colbert Damascus 2009 120.9 20:29.5 12 13 15 21 19 20 23
20 Jenny Reid Poolesville 2009 116.8 20:31.6 16 16 23 24
21 Olivia Mahlmann Sherwood 2011 107.6 20:36.2 25 34 30 31 26
22 Jenna Willett Walter Johnson 2010 104.5 20:37.7 31 30 28 26 27
23 Sarah Sekscienski Northwest 2011 100.0 20:40.0 19 22 24 26 23 27 28
24 Caroline Guiot Whitman 2012 99.0 20:40.5 20 21 24 29
25 Alana Moore Richard Montgomery 2009 91.5 20:44.2 15 16 20 25 26 32 30
26 Emily McIlvried Damascus 2010 86.9 20:46.5 26 26 27 29 34 31
27 Kai Santangelo Northwest 2011 84.5 20:47.7 19 18 22 25 28 32
28 Roxanne Oroxom Blair 2010 81.6 20:49.2 33 33
29 Alex Carroll Damascus 2011 81.2 20:49.4 38 33 35 35 34
30 Jenna Smith Clarksburg 2009 79.1 20:50.4 31 37 29 35
31 Theresa Cronin Sherwood 2010 68.2 20:55.9 34 34 44 46 49 55 37
32 Elaine Chung Blair 2009 64.1 20:57.9 48 42 38
33 Kate Bouvatte B-CC 2009 62.6 20:58.7 36 39 41 38 39
34 Sophie Jacobson Churchill 2010 62.1 20:58.9 26 27 33 41 38 39 40
35 Vera Johne Churchill 2011 58.2 21:00.9 27 29 27 29 32 37 41
36 Emily Balcombe Northwest 2012 57.8 21:01.1 43
37 Ariam Solomon Einstein 2011 57.0 21:01.5 44
38 Yodit Solomon Einstein 2011 57.0 21:01.5 45
39 Julia Mertz Richard Montgomery 2009 52.8 21:03.6 32 32 35 49 52 49 46
40 Shannon Wagner Quince Orchard 2011 43.8 21:08.1 49
41 India Knight Northwest 2012 43.0 21:08.5 50
42 Christine Chang Wootton 2012 43.0 21:08.5 33 36 51
43 Karly Najaka Damascus 2012 42.0 21:09.0 52
44 Megan Patton Damascus 2009 40.1 21:09.9 37 44 42 43 53
45 Alexis Widmayer Northwest 2012 40.0 21:10.0 54
46 Amy Levine Wootton 2010 37.2 21:11.4 30 36 43 47 55
47 Paula Fuenzalida Northwest 2010 35.0 21:12.5 28 35 43 53 51 52 57
48 Kate Leuba B-CC 2010 35.0 21:12.5 39 43 39 40 58
49 Gwynedd Arbury B-CC 2010 34.0 21:13.0 53 59
50 Kate Allaway Northwest 2010 34.0 21:13.0 20 21 48 60
51 Ava Farrell B-CC 2012 30.7 21:14.6 54 61
52 Naomi Roochnik B-CC 2009 30.0 21:15.0 29 37 44 44 62
53 Phoebe Palmer Churchill 2010 29.6 21:15.2 40 45 54 58 63
54 Hillary Siegall Northwest 2010 28.0 21:16.0 21 25 42 51 53 61 64
55 Myla Sapp Blair 2012 26.0 21:17.0 65
56 Maria Moersen Walter Johnson 2011 25.2 21:17.4 33 33 45 38 34 48 66
57 Camille Bouvet Walter Johnson 2011 20.0 21:20.0 57 67
58 Julia Shapiro Quince Orchard 2012 18.0 21:21.0 70
59 Theresa Regan Blair 2011 15.1 21:22.4 56 71
60 Abby Iacangelo Sherwood 2011 14.7 21:22.6 40 47 62 72
61 Johna Applestein Walter Johnson 2010 12.3 21:23.8 52 46 51 73
Northwest 94
Quince Orchard 126
Damascus 133
Churchill 140
B-CC 185
Walter Johnson 193





Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

SBtrack
2008-10-15 19:20:13

Interesting Idea, but unfortunately your comp can't predict who has the most heart.

Anonymous
2008-10-15 19:49:17

wayne bartholomew is way too low!!! he'll get in the top ten fo sho.

Kevin
2008-10-15 20:06:51

If they run with heart in every race, then the system has that covered!

The system didn't like how Wayne was running in September but most people including me would agree he should be higher based on October. Also check the projected times. He is about 7 seconds ahead of the next guy, but also 7 seconds behind the guy five places in front of him. It's a really narrow margin between those guys ranked 7 - 13.

SBtrack
2008-10-15 20:33:19

We all know that athletes will but more on the line in the post season then in dual meets

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