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Divisional Analysis Week 3
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2009-09-29


My predictions were a little dicey in division three last week as I continued my trend from last year of underestimating Rockville. The Rockville girls remain undefeated after a tri meet against Poolesville and Springbrook, while the Rockville boys came away 1-1 with a win over Springbrook. Meanwhile in Kensington, the Einstein boys took down Magruder convincingly to remain undefeated. There were a few close calls, but otherwise I picked 37 for 40 last week after picking 23 for 24 the first week, not that anyone is keeping score. 32 matchups in 7 meets are all scheduled on Wednesday this week.

As always, please email results to webmaster@mocorunning.com following your meets so I can keep the standings updated.

Girls Standings

Northwest

3-0

Walter Johnson

2-1

Churchill

1-1

Walt Whitman

1-2

Damascus

0-1

Sherwood

0-2

Wootton

3-0

B-CC

2-1

Quince Orchard

1-1

Blair

1-1

R. Montgomery

0-1

Gaithersburg

0-3

Rockville

3-0

Magruder

2-0

Clarksburg

1-0

Poolesville

1-2

Einstein

0-2

Springbrook

0-3

Northwood

4-0

Kennedy

2-0

Seneca Valley

2-1

Blake

1-1

Paint Branch

1-3

Watkins Mill

0-1

Wheaton

0-4

Boys Standings

Walter Johnson

3-0

Churchill

2-0

Northwest

2-1

Damascus

0-1

Sherwood

0-2

Walt Whitman

0-3

Quince Orchard

2-0

R. Montgomery

1-0

Wootton

2-1

B-CC

1-2

Gaithersburg

1-2

Blair

0-2

Poolesville

3-0

Einstein

2-0

Clarksburg

1-0

Rockville

1-2

Magruder

0-2

Springbrook

0-3

Northwood

4-0

Blake

2-0

Paint Branch

3-1

Wheaton

1-3

Seneca Valley

0-3

Watkins Mill

0-1

Kennedy

0-2



Boys Predictions
Northwood over Kennedy
Whitman over Sherwood
Whitman over Damascus
Sherwood over Damascus
Wootton over Blair
Walter Johnson over Churchill
Clarksburg over Rockville
Clarksburg over Magruder
Magruder over Rockville
Einstein over Springbrook
Blake over Paint Branch
Blake over Seneca Valley
Blake over Watkins Mill
Paint Branch over Seneca Valley
Paint Branch over Watkins Mill
Seneca Valley over Watkins Mill

Girls Predictions
Northwood over Kennedy
Whitman over Sherwood
Whitman over Damascus
Sherwood over Damascus
Wootton over Blair
Walter Johnson over Churchill
Clarksburg over Rockville
Magruder over Clarksburg
Magruder over Rockville
Springbrook over Einstein
Blake over Paint Branch
Seneca Valley over Blake
Blake over Watkins Mill
Seneca Valley over Paint Branch
Paint Branch over Watkins Mill
Seneca Valley over Watkins Mill



Division I

Walter Johnson will host Churchill in what should be the deciding matchup for the boys division title. Churchill has been running far better than preseason expectations and is coming back from Carlisle battle-tested after competing with some of the best teams in PA. Walter Johnson is thought of by most as the very best team in Maryland and should still be able to win this race against a younger, more inexperienced Churchill team on their home course.

The tri-meet at Sherwood could turn into a sweep by Damascus, but Damascus has scheduled a race in Salisbury at the same time so I don't expect their varsity runners to show up. Whitman vs. Sherwood is a difficult boys matchup to predict as both teams have struggled with injury and illness this year, but I think after Jackson Reams, Sherwood does not have the depth to compete with any division I teams at this point.

Division II

Wootton boys and girls swept B-CC and Gaithersburg last week. It's been a long time since I've been able to write something like that. This week, the only division two matchup is Blair vs. Wootton which Wootton should be able to win easily.

Division III

Predicting division III caused me trouble last week and it is causing me trouble again. Clarksburg vs. Magruder is difficult enough to breakdown, but Rockville continues to improve as well. All three girls teams are very different. Clarksburg is strong up front but drops off greatly after their fourth runner. Magruder has a group of girls that are all pretty even and have swapped around their order in every race. Rockville seems to be too spread out to compete with these teams. I think Clarksburg's lack of depth will be their downfall so I give Magruder the edge to sweep this one.

On the boys side, Magruder struggled in the last two dual meets. Like the girls team, the Clarksburg guys are strong up front with their top two runners, but maybe not as deep as Magruder at 3, 4, and 5. But in this case I like Clarksburg's 3, 4, and 5 to tangle it up with Magruder a little bit better than the girls.

Division IV

Kennedy is the only division IV opponent who could take down the Northwood girls, but after watching them last week, I don't think Kennedy will be able to break up Northwood's top four. As for the boys, Kennedy should not give Northwood much trouble.

Northwood still faces Blake down the road. I predict the Blake boys to emerge from their quad meet at home with an undefeated record, although they will need to improve to stand a chance against Northwood later in the season.





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