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Statistically Generated County Rankings
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2009-10-19


**FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY**

Mocorunning is again attempting to do the impossible: predict times and places for the top ~50 public school athletes in the upcoming county championship. These rankings and times are based on the statistical individual rankings that have been published on this site for four years.

Read about this ranking system to help you understand it. It is a fun and easy way to track and objectively rank a large number of athletes. The actual county championship results may not look anything like this, but the system tends to be reasonably accurate when it comes to statistical models predicting human performance.

The most important thing here is where the runners are ranked relative to one another. The system is not designed to predict times for a specific meet, but since the point system is based on time (1 second = 2 points), it is possible to predict times. All of the times can collectively be shifted up or down based on course difficulty and conditions, but runners will always be separated by the same amount of time. Since Gaithersburg has produced very fast times the last several years and the course is supposed to dry out all this week, predicted times are set very optimistically. **Note: the ranking system can't model or predict swine flu!
Progression from preseason to wk 7 (rank includes private school runners)
Rank Name School Year Time
1 Andrew Palmer Whitman 2010 15:30.7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Jackson Reams Sherwood 2011 15:41.3 17 20 12 11 6 2 2 2
3 Sean O'Leary Walter Johnson 2010 15:51.1 2 2 3 3 2 4 3 3
4 Alex Willett Walter Johnson 2011 15:51.5 5 4 4 4 4 8 4 4
5 Chris Miller Northwest 2011 16:02.7 6 5 6 5 8 6 6 6
6 Eric Holmstead Poolesville 2011 16:03.5 2 2 3 3 7 7
7 Thomas Arias Damascus 2010 16:08.4 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9
8 Nicolas Escobar Magruder 2010 16:14.1 3 3 5 6 11 10
9 Ishan Dey Walter Johnson 2010 16:15.7 8 8 10 10 9 10 8 11
10 Nicholas Regan Walter Johnson 2011 16:16.8 14 15 16 17 15 13 12 12
11 Zachary Weinstein Churchill 2012 16:18.5 21 15 12 12 13 13
12 Tarek Elhage Churchill 2010 16:22.7 30 32 17 18 16 14 14 14
13 Jatin Narang Clarksburg 2010 16:24.8 28 25 31 22 21 16 15 15
14 Sam Martin Richard Montgomery 2011 16:26.5 23 17 19 20 18 19 17 16
15 Evan Laratta Quince Orchard 2012 16:29.0 33 36 38 30 26 21 17
16 James McNamara Richard Montgomery 2010 16:30.9 19 26 30 24 20 21 22 19
17 Brandt Silver-Korn Whitman 2010 16:31.5 7 7 11 13 13 17 19 21
18 Conor Spaulding Quince Orchard 2011 16:32.2 12 16 23 21 17 18 20 22
19 Josh Ellis Walter Johnson 2012 16:32.6 18 21 22 23 27 29 26 23
20 Jeremy Batt Richard Montgomery 2010 16:33.9 25 29 35 34 28 28 29 24
21 Brendan Stepek Gaithersburg 2010 16:35.6 27 33 35 26 20 23 25
22 Justin Rheingold Churchill 2011 16:36.2 32 34 18 14 14 15 16 26
23 Lorenzo Acosta Damascus 2012 16:39.0 29
24 Cecil Jonas Damascus 2010 16:39.0 13 11 15 19 22 24 25 30
25 Shane Stepek Gaithersburg 2011 16:43.1 26 30 41 40 32 32 33 32
26 Will Conway Churchill 2012 16:44.6 27 32 23 23 30 33
27 Alex Arias Damascus 2011 16:45.3 33 28 26 25 25 34 31 34
28 Nathan Austin Rockville 2010 16:47.2 43 47 24 25 27 35
29 Bobby Sonken Northwest 2011 16:51.7 11 12 24 27 35 39 40 36
30 Nick Simpson Einstein 2013 16:51.9 49 37
31 Sam Hague Poolesville 2011 16:52.8 31 36 43 41 38
32 Willy Wise Springbrook 2011 16:53.0 29 31 37 47 48 50 42 39
33 Nicholas Balderson Sherwood 2011 16:53.3 39 42 53 49 44 40
34 Jon Constantinides Damascus 2010 16:53.3 42 33 34 41
35 Andrew Ceruzzi Einstein 2011 16:53.6 56 42
36 Hayder Cherinet Paint Branch 2011 16:54.9 39 41 52 31 31 32 43
37 Eric Damtoft B-CC 2010 16:55.0 37 38 38 37 43 44 45 44
38 Olivier Poulain Northwest 2010 16:57.4 36 37 45 46 47 56 48 45
39 Sam Widmayer Poolesville 2010 16:57.7 38 39 51 51 45 47 50 46
40 Eliot Gerson B-CC 2011 16:57.7 15 18 20 26 33 37 36 47
41 David Wilson Poolesville 2010 16:57.7 22 24 29 36 50 52 51 48
42 Chip Seldon Blake 2010 16:58.2 38 37 49
43 Charlie Ramirez Damascus 2011 16:58.4 24 22 25 33 29 36 59 50
44 Russ Daley Clarksburg 2011 16:58.8 44 53 53 51
45 Scott Sheehan Walter Johnson 2012 17:00.7 42 40 43 52
46 Enricco Reumante Northwood 2011 17:01.0 21 23 42 44 35 53
47 Mark Mechak Magruder 2010 17:02.5 40 28 34 54 54 55
48 Steven Obrzut Northwest 2010 17:02.7 40 46 60 56
49 Jacob Brennan Northwest 2011 17:04.1 39 51 62 57
50 Kevin Hogan Sherwood 2010 17:04.6 28 29 41 30 64 58
51 Dagmawi Abebe Magruder 2011 17:05.3 30 37 48 55 59
52 James Bartlett Damascus 2010 17:05.8 42 46 60
53 Ben Constantinides Damascus 2010 17:06.3 31 35 48 45 51 41 47 61
54 Luke Shannon Churchill 2012 17:07.3 34 39 54 61 65 63


Teams with 5 or more ranked runners:
Walter Johnson 45
Damascus 115
Churchill 125
Northwest 169

Progression from preseason to wk 7 (rank includes private school runners)
Rank Name School Year Time
1 Jessie Rubin Wootton 2010 18:24.8 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Anna Bosse Walter Johnson 2011 18:31.7 1 1 4 4 5 2 3 2
3 Alyssa Henshaw Northwest 2010 18:34.1 5 5 7 8 3 3 2 3
4 Abby Spitler Gaithersburg 2010 18:39.7 4 2 2 2 4 5 6 4
5 Abbey Daley Clarksburg 2013 18:46.6 10 10 10 9 4 5
6 Anna Ryba Whitman 2012 18:47.5 7 8 11 5 2 4 5 6
7 Britt Eckerstrom Northwest 2011 18:57.7 2 3 3 3 6 6 7 7
8 Stephanie Joson Quince Orchard 2010 18:59.6 11 10 8 9 7 7 8 8
9 Shayna Barbash Whitman 2010 19:04.7 6 6 9 11 11 8 9 10
10 Maryam Fikri Churchill 2010 19:10.8 8 9 5 6 8 11 10 11
11 Camille Bouvet Walter Johnson 2011 19:11.5 26 22 17 14 15 14 13 12
12 Jenna Willett Walter Johnson 2010 19:17.0 16 14 13 13 13 12 12 13
13 Alexandra Giedd Churchill 2010 19:30.1 13 11 12 12 12 13 14 14
14 Ava Farrell B-CC 2012 19:36.0 40 36 21 17 14 15 15 15
15 Andrea Maxwell Wootton 2010 19:37.6 14 12 14 15 16 16 17 16
16 Christine DiNardo Northwest 2011 19:48.9 25 20 18 17 17 18 17
17 Jennifer Spencer Walter Johnson 2010 19:54.4 43 40 32 30 23 18 16 18
18 Emily McIlvried Damascus 2010 20:05.9 21 17 18 21 21 25 21 19
19 Lauren Sumner Clarksburg 2010 20:10.1 24 20 22 19 25 22 20 20
20 Sarah Sekscienski Northwest 2011 20:14.4 15 13 15 16 22 23 22 21
21 Jade Lebrock Quince Orchard 2011 20:20.0 54 23
22 Anna Lizon Magruder 2012 20:22.0 18 19 23 24
23 Cassie Clayborne Damascus 2011 20:22.0 25 25
24 Olivia Mahlmann Sherwood 2011 20:23.0 20 18 23 24 21 24 26
25 Shannon Wagner Quince Orchard 2011 20:23.6 27 23 25 27 35 35 27 27
26 Alex Carroll Damascus 2011 20:25.6 22 24 24 23 24 28 28 28
27 Elizabeth Frank Whitman 2010 20:28.1 29 27 29 29
28 Katie Nagiel Rockville 2011 20:30.2 30 22 19 24 30 30
29 Paula Fuenzalida Northwest 2010 20:30.3 35 31 29 29 27 26 26 31
30 Kelly Kendall Sherwood 2012 20:31.3 37 37 31 32 35 32
31 Amy Levine Wootton 2010 20:36.1 51 48 35 32 32 33 32 33
32 Amy Ferro Rockville 2010 20:36.5 17 15 16 26 36 45 33 34
33 Morgan Kershner Northwood 2013 20:39.0 35
34 Darcy O'Connor B-CC 2010 20:39.9 38 33 42 38 34 36
35 Kai Santangelo Northwest 2011 20:40.4 23 19 28 28 34 40 36 37
36 Robyn Gaudon Northwest 2011 20:40.7 28 29 31 38
37 Jenny Sholar Blair 2011 20:42.1 56 36 43 47 38 39
38 Caroline Elmendorf Whitman 2013 20:43.4 40 44 40 41
39 Michaela Gramzinski Northwest 2010 20:44.1 50 50 41 42
40 Karly Najaka Damascus 2012 20:45.6 48 46 47 38 41 36 42 43
41 Emma Tolerton Richard Montgomery 2013 20:46.1 46 44
42 Charlotte Bourg Churchill 2012 20:49.4 38 37 37 45
43 Megan Gerdes Poolesville 2012 20:49.6 33 34 47 46
44 Claire Cohen B-CC 2012 20:50.1 46 44 47 48 48 47
45 Madeline Rico Wootton 2012 20:50.6 55 48 46 43 49 48
46 Theresa Cronin Sherwood 2010 20:51.2 33 29 43 40 49 53 53 49
47 Monica Pinzon Richard Montgomery 2013 20:51.5 50
48 Maria Moersen Walter Johnson 2011 20:52.8 25 21 26 31 48 54 52
49 Karen Cohen Wootton 2012 20:52.9 39 42 44 42 44 53
50 Christine Chang Wootton 2012 20:53.0 42 38 49 51 54
51 Allison Marella Damascus 2013 21:01.2 51 55 56
52 Dee Dee Montiel Springbrook 2013 21:02.0 52 57
53 Fatima Resendiz Richard Montgomery 2011 21:04.1 43 58


Teams with 5 or more ranked runners:
Northwest 75
Walter Johnson 90
Wootton 141
Damascus 158






Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

Oscar
2009-10-20 14:54:11

Northwest Boys have been running strong all season. The dual meet at Damascuss aside (they opted to run as a group to avoid injury on what was deemed a dangerous course due to track conditions. The Jags have a good shot at finishing top 3. Two of their top five runners have been sick the past two weeks. Jaccob Brennan is currently on the sidelines with H1N1. There is some hope he can be back in time for Saturday's meet, but it's highly unlikely he would be at 100%. With all healh concerns aside, look for WJ, Churchill, Damascuss and NW to run a closer than expected race for county bragging rights.


2009-10-20 18:46:33

Are any other runners currently suffering from the flu?

thomas
2009-10-20 19:38:57

actually, I'm rather surprised that damascus is in front of churchill. over the course of the season churchill has shown that they can be 2nd behind wj and if churchill was all healthy for the meet, i couldnt see them beating churchill at counties

Barbara
2009-10-21 07:41:18

Because there are no runners from any private school, shouldn't the headings read that "rankings do NOT include private school runners"?

bluecollarrunner64
2009-10-21 08:08:25

runners from every school are getting hit really hard by the swine. the rankings are going to be very different in reality from these statistically extrapolated ones. I still expect Walter Johnson to win - but maybe by a lesser margin.

dj nastay
2009-10-21 14:39:02

I don't think Kevin is implying that private school runners are included in the county rankings; rather, he's saying that the list of rank progressions was compiled without discounting the private school runners in the rankings, even though they aren't on this particular list.


2009-10-21 16:36:51

Say what? Just say private school runners were NOT included in the compilation of this list.


2009-10-24 13:24:03

WJ and NW girls had a good race, with WJ edging out NW by 4 points to take the county title. NW boys did not do well. Very good race by C Miller and a good run by Steve could not carry NW. Jacob Brennan, out with the flu since last Thursday made a game effort but had his worst race of the year. He, like several other kids busted their but, but could not over come weeks of flu driven bad health. Congrats to all the teams. Each kid, all schools worked hard and should be proud of their efforts. Congrats to the to county champs and good luck to all at the reg. and state meets. Let's go make MoCo proud.

g-money
2009-10-25 04:02:53

why didn't zach weinstein run and why were the times so much slower than last year?

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