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Statistically Generated County Rankings
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2010-10-17


These rankings and times are based on the statistical individual rankings that have been published on this site for five years. Read about this ranking system to help you understand it. It is a fun and easy way to track and objectively rank a large number of athletes. The actual county championship results may not look anything like this, but the system tends to be reasonably accurate when it comes to statistical models predicting human performance.

The most important thing here is where the runners are ranked relative to one another. The system is not necessarily designed to predict times for a specific meet, but since the point system is based on time (1 second = 2 points), it is possible to predict times. All of the times can collectively be shifted up or down based on course difficulty and conditions, but runners will always be separated by the same amount of time. The history of finish times at the Gaithersburg county course were considered when setting the times.

Ranking Season Progression
Rk Name School Year Predicted Time Pre wk1 wk2 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7
1 Chris Miller Northwest 2011 15:46.1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1
2 Nick Regan Walter Johnson 2011 15:52.7 4 4 4 2 2 2 2
3 Alex Willett Walter Johnson 2011 15:57.9 3 3 3 4 4 3 3
4 Jackson Reams Sherwood 2011 16:04.8 1 1 1 8 3 4 4
5 Kyle Tockman Sherwood 2011 16:05.5 30 33 9 6 7 6 5
6 Conor Spaulding Quince Orchard 2011 16:05.8 8 8 6 3 5 5 6
7 Zachary Weinstein Churchill 2012 16:08.0 10 12 8 7 8 9 7
8 Josh Ellis Walter Johnson 2012 16:11.9 18 20 21 6 7 9
9 Sam Martin Richard Montgomery 2011 16:15.4 11 13 11 10 10 10 10
10 Eric Holmstead Poolesville 2011 16:24.6 7 7 10 12 15 13 11
11 Will Conway Churchill 2012 16:24.9 6 6 14 15 17 15 12
12 Evan Laratta Quince Orchard 2012 16:31.2 5 5 5 9 11 11 13
13 Drew Lehner Quince Orchard 2011 16:36.8 14 13 14 14 14 16
14 Alex Arias Damascus 2011 16:40.1 15 17 15 17 16 16 17
15 Justin Rheingold Churchill 2011 16:40.3 16 18 16 18 18 19 18
16 Joshua Trzeciak Wootton 2013 16:42.9 20 23 25 22 19
17 Dagmawi Abebe Magruder 2011 16:46.0 24 28 23 19 21 21 20
18 Luke Shannon Churchill 2012 16:46.3 19 21 25 21 24 24 21
19 Alex Popeck Sherwood 2012 16:54.3 29 26 32 30 23
20 Trevor Stephens B-CC 2011 16:54.6 28 25 27 26 24
21 Shane Stepek Gaithersburg 2011 16:54.8 9 11 17 16 22 27 25
22 Andrew Ceruzzi Einstein 2011 16:55.5 33 35 27 24 26 25 26
23 Eliot Gerson B-CC 2011 16:59.5 29 32 51 30 28 29 27
24 Charlie Ramirez Damascus 2011 17:00.7 20 22 26 28 29 28 28
25 Kenneth Wohl Wootton 2011 17:00.8 37 39 39 37 37 32 29
26 Robert Brown Walter Johnson 2011 17:02.0 35 33 33 30
27 Nick Simpson Einstein 2013 17:06.9 14 16 19 27 30 31 32
28 Nick Adams Whitman 2012 17:07.1 40 38 37 34
29 Alex Kim Churchill 2011 17:08.7 35 36 35
30 David Levine Wootton 2013 17:09.1 36 31 34 38 37
31 Ben Withbroe Einstein 2013 17:09.8 17 19 31 29 31 35 38
32 Kenny Hunsley Damascus 2011 17:11.0 40
33 Trever Reed Gaithersburg 2012 17:12.1 42 32 36 39 42
34 Bobby Sonken Northwest 2011 17:13.3 25 37 37 39 42 42 43
35 Russ Daley Clarksburg 2011 17:15.3 26 31 43 41 47 47 44
36 Sushen Thiyagarajan Churchill 2012 17:15.4 47 49 61 58 45
37 Will Severynse Wootton 2012 17:15.5 46
38 Ben Crites Walter Johnson 2013 17:15.9 40 48
39 Steven Goldberg Whitman 2012 17:16.0 36 38 41 59 49
40 Vik Siberry Sherwood 2013 17:16.4 51 41 46 50
41 Sean McMahon Richard Montgomery 2012 17:17.3 38 34 49 44 52
42 Jacob Brennan Northwest 2011 17:18.2 32 40 53 52 48 53
43 Joey Werble Poolesville 2013 17:19.4 51 54
44 Jordan Psaltakis Poolesville 2012 17:19.6 55
45 Luis Gracian Richard Montgomery 2012 17:21.1 56
46 Scott Sheehan Walter Johnson 2012 17:21.9 21 23 24 22 19 20 57
47 Mark Montgomery Richard Montgomery 2012 17:22.2 51 52 58
48 David Hamilton Richard Montgomery 2012 17:22.4 50 58 46 55 59
49 Alex Hevey Einstein 2012 17:23.1 50 63 59 60
50 Matt Kogan Churchill 2012 17:24.7 44 42 43 45 61
51 Jacob Cantor Richard Montgomery 2011 17:24.8 48 53 56 62
52 Lorenzo Acosta Damascus 2012 17:26.5 31 34 52 54 54 60 63
53 James Sauro Walter Johnson 2012 17:27.1 38 39 53 64
54 Philip Catterall B-CC 2011 17:27.5 53 59 61 66
Ranking Season Progression
Rk Name School Year Predicted Time Pre wk1 wk2 wk4 wk5 wk6 wk7
1 Anna Ryba Whitman 2012 18:54.5 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
2 Anna Bosse Walter Johnson 2011 19:10.7 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
3 Abbey Daley Clarksburg 2013 19:27.3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
4 Alexandra Phillips Whitman 2012 19:28.8 7 6 6 4 5 4
5 Britt Eckerstrom Northwest 2011 19:29.9 3 3 3 5 6 4 5
6 Camille Bouvet Walter Johnson 2011 19:45.9 5 5 5 4 5 6 6
7 Ava Farrell B-CC 2012 19:50.5 6 8 8 7 7 7 7
8 Morgana D'Ottavi Blair 2014 19:50.7 6 7 8 8 8 8
9 Elena De La Paz Richard Montgomery 2012 20:09.4 10 9 9 9 9 9
10 Christine DiNardo Northwest 2011 20:15.0 7 9 10 10 11 10 10
11 Madeline Rico Wootton 2012 20:32.3 27 37 18 11 12 12 12
12 Charlotte Bourg Churchill 2012 20:40.0 8 11 11 13 13 16 13
13 Caroline Guiot Whitman 2012 20:40.7 25 27 23 24 22 14
14 Karen Cohen Wootton 2012 20:42.0 14 18 30 15 20 20 15
15 Gillian Tosatto Sherwood 2013 20:45.0 32 22 18 14 16
16 Sarah Sekscienski Northwest 2011 20:45.6 16 14 14 17 19 15 18
17 Kai Santangelo Northwest 2011 20:47.1 25 23 26 14 17 17 19
18 Shannon Wagner Quince Orchard 2011 20:47.8 17 19 29 20 14 18 20
19 Jacqui Young Clarksburg 2012 20:49.5 24 20 19 15 13 21
20 Claire Cohen B-CC 2012 20:49.9 32 40 46 27 22 19 22
21 Catherine Panasenkov Quince Orchard 2013 20:53.7 32 23 25 16 21 23
22 Caroline Elmendorf Whitman 2013 20:56.2 31 31 37 24 26 24 24
23 Alex Carroll Damascus 2011 20:58.5 12 17 15 16 25 27 25
24 Laura Nakasaka B-CC 2013 20:58.6 37 31 25 26
25 Elizabeth Frank Whitman 2012 21:05.4 18 36 41 34 28 28 27
26 Allison Marella Damascus 2013 21:06.8 12 18 21 26 28
27 Amanda Tomlinson Sherwood 2013 21:07.2 34 43 35 29 29
28 Laura Elmendorf Whitman 2013 21:11.4 30 37 31 31
29 Fatima Resendiz Richard Montgomery 2011 21:13.5 13 17 29 27 30 32
30 Jackie Weiss Sherwood 2012 21:13.6 39 52 50 39 33
31 Grace McDonald Sherwood 2014 21:14.1 46 43 34
32 Caroline Leuba B-CC 2013 21:14.6 46 33 32 35
33 Chelsie Pennello Poolesville 2014 21:15.8 36 40 36
34 Moriah Gendelman Walter Johnson 2011 21:19.2 35 37
35 Cara Bennet Whitman 2011 21:21.3 41 40 37 38
36 Naomi Sheppard Northwest 2014 21:21.5 47 49 38 39
37 Hannah Buchek Blair 2012 21:22.0 34 42 38 43 46 40
38 Megan Gerdes Poolesville 2012 21:23.9 41
39 Jinhie Skarda Blair 2013 21:25.9 42
40 Abby Titmas Richard Montgomery 2013 21:26.4 22 19 26 32 36 43
41 Mary Madden Paint Branch 2012 21:26.6 33 28 30 34 44
42 Jade Lebrock Quince Orchard 2011 21:27.9 13 21 35 39 48 48 45
43 Emily Balcombe Northwest 2012 21:28.0 49 46
44 Kendra Meredith Northwest 2014 21:28.0 50 47
45 Amanda Cohen B-CC 2014 21:28.1 51 48
46 Kylee Patton Damascus 2013 21:28.2 33 41 48 56 54 52 49
47 Harriet Symmington Whitman 2014 21:29.5 41 41 51
48 Lakayja Alston Damascus 2012 21:29.8 29 33 53
49 Susan McGrattan Wootton 2013 21:30.3 36 38 44 54
50 Calley Mayer-Marks Blair 2014 21:32.0 36 31 42 55
51 Emily Levenson Wootton 2012 21:32.3 45 47 47 56
52 Zoe Kaplan Northwest 2014 21:34.2 32 39 53 57
53 Eileen Ser Northwest 2011 21:37.0 55 58
54 Emma Tolerton Richard Montgomery 2013 21:37.3 22 29 38 33 44 57 59
55 Paula Rabade Churchill 2014 21:37.9 60
56 Morgan Kershner Northwood 2013 21:39.6 23 30 45 53 52 42 61
57 Abby Iacangelo Sherwood 2011 21:39.7 58 62
58 Lexi Levenson Wootton 2014 21:39.7 51 56 54 63
59 Samantha Griffith Quince Orchard 2013 21:42.2 60 64
60 Katie Seevers Whitman 2012 21:44.6 63 65
61 Casey Mulloy Gaithersburg 2014 21:45.5 53 65 66
62 Hilary Gelfond Wootton 2012 21:45.6 44 45 59 67
63 Regina Schreiber Quince Orchard 2014 21:45.9 66 68


Girls Teams with 5 or more ranked runners:
Whitman	65
Northwest	84
B-CC	128
Sherwood	157
Wootton	178
Quince Orchard	196

Boys Teams with 5 or more ranked runners:
Walter Johnson 77
Churchill 80
Richard Montgomery 190





Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

Chase Budinger
2010-10-17 22:12:25

Hey, what times do the races start and when is it all over?

jiggleitalittleit'llopen
2010-10-19 15:07:08

Roughly put, this data seems to suggest the order would be Walter Johnson Sherwood Quince Orchard Einstein Damascus Wootton Richard montgomery Churchill Northwest B-CC Poolesville Whitman Gaithersburg Clarksburg Magruder Although of course this is only with the limited ranking and a bit of guesswork with the latter runners that are not in the top 50 or so and yes, it could be completley wrong.

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