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4A State Team Predictions
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2010-11-11


In Maryland, there is great disparity in the strength of the regions. The 4A West is stronger than the 4A East, which is much stronger than the 4A North, which is much stronger than the 4A South. This disparity can be used to predict what will happen when all four regions come together. Plotted below is the performance of runners at last year's state championship. The inbalance between regions becomes very obvious.

Below is a plot of times from the 4A Regional Qualifying Meets this year. Clearly the different courses make it impossible to compare the performances strictly based on time.

If the regions were all equal, I would simply line up the "average runners" on the flat part of the curves and use that as a prediction. But the first plot shows that the regions are clearly unbalanced and therefore I used the strength of the regions as determined by performances at the 2009 state meet and the 2010 region results to come up with a final prediction. The resulting state predictions are plotted below.

This shows that a given runner from the 4A west will always be a certain margin ahead of the corresponding runner from the 4A east, who will always be a certain margin ahead of the correspoonding runner from the 4A north. For example, the prediction says the 20th runner from the 4A west will be a certain margin ahead of the 20th runner from the 4A east, in this case, 39 seconds. The 20th runner from the 4A West is ahead of all but 5 runners from the 4A east (Last year there were 18 4A west runners ahead of the 6th runner from the 4A east).

This method is a good way to get team scores when combining the 4A regions and loosely follows the speed rating methodology used in other parts of the country (most states don't have such disparity between regions). It assumes minimal change from the region to state meet, and therefore it is not a good predictor of individual finishes. I'm going to take out the runners' names to try to take the focus off the individual.

1 Walter Johnson 66 WEST
2 Churchill 90 WEST
3 Sherwood 120 WEST
4 Wootton 169 WEST
5 Severna Park 179 EAST
6 Chesapeake 193 EAST
7 Northwest 217 WEST
8 Roosevelt 220 SOUTH
9 Magruder 233 WEST
10 Richard Montgomery 244 WEST
11 Annapolis 262 EAST
12 Urbana 295 NORTH
13 Broadneck 320 EAST
14 Westminster 338 NORTH
15 Leonardtown 350 EAST
16 North Point 364 EAST
17 Dulaney 398 NORTH
18 Bowie 494 SOUTH
19 Thomas Johnson 511 NORTH
20 DuVal 655 SOUTH
21 Oxon Hill 678 SOUTH
1 1 Walter Johnson 16:22.2 WEST
2 2 Walter Johnson 16:42.7 WEST
3 3 Sherwood 16:47.7 WEST
4 4 Northwest 16:48.2 WEST
5 Old Mill 16:51.0 EAST
6 5 Roosevelt 16:53.0 SOUTH
7 6 Magruder 16:55.3 WEST
8 7 Richard Montgomery 16:57.5 WEST
9 8 Annapolis 17:01.0 EAST
10 9 Walter Johnson 17:02.5 WEST
11 10 Sherwood 17:09.9 WEST
12 11 Churchill 17:09.9 WEST
13 Great Mills 17:14.0 EAST
14 12 Churchill 17:14.5 WEST
15 13 Sherwood 17:18.3 WEST
16 14 Westminster 17:18.9 NORTH
17 15 Broadneck 17:20.0 EAST
18 B-CC 17:20.6 WEST
19 16 Walter Johnson 17:21.8 WEST
20 17 Wootton 17:22.1 WEST
21 18 Northwest 17:24.7 WEST
22 19 Roosevelt 17:25.0 SOUTH
23 20 Churchill 17:27.9 WEST
24 21 Thomas Johnson 17:28.6 NORTH
25 22 Churchill 17:29.0 WEST
26 23 Severna Park 17:33.0 EAST
27 24 Sherwood 17:34.1 WEST
28 25 Churchill 17:34.7 WEST
29 26 Wootton 17:35.5 WEST
30 27 Urbana 17:35.9 NORTH
31 B-CC 17:38.0 WEST
32 28 Chesapeake 17:38.0 EAST
33 29 Chesapeake 17:40.0 EAST
34 30 Chesapeake 17:42.0 EAST
35 31 North Point 17:44.0 EAST
36 32 Severna Park 17:47.0 EAST
37 33 Magruder 17:49.1 WEST
38 34 Westminster 17:49.9 NORTH
39 35 Wootton 17:53.7 WEST
40 Flowers 17:54.0 SOUTH
41 Great Mills 18:00.0 EAST
42 36 Roosevelt 18:02.0 SOUTH
43 37 Severna Park 18:02.0 EAST
44 38 Walter Johnson 18:02.1 WEST
45 Meade 18:03.0 EAST
46 39 Northwest 18:03.5 WEST
47 40 Magruder 18:04.2 WEST
48 41 Urbana 18:04.6 NORTH
49 42 Severna Park 18:05.0 EAST
50 43 Wootton 18:05.1 WEST
51 44 Richard Montgomery 18:05.6 WEST
52 45 Severna Park 18:07.0 EAST
53 46 Severna Park 18:08.0 EAST
54 47 Leonardtown 18:09.0 EAST
55 48 Wootton 18:09.8 WEST
56 49 Broadneck 18:10.0 EAST
57 50 Chesapeake 18:12.0 EAST
58 51 Urbana 18:13.4 NORTH
59 52 Leonardtown 18:14.0 EAST
60 Arundel 18:15.0 EAST
61 53 Walter Johnson 18:15.9 WEST
62 54 Annapolis 18:17.0 EAST
63 55 North Point 18:18.0 EAST
64 56 Chesapeake 18:20.0 EAST
65 57 Northwest 18:20.2 WEST
66 58 Churchill 18:20.3 WEST
67 59 Churchill 18:22.0 WEST
68 60 Bowie 18:24.0 SOUTH
69 61 Annapolis 18:25.0 EAST
70 62 Leonardtown 18:27.0 EAST
71 63 Richard Montgomery 18:27.0 WEST
72 64 Richard Montgomery 18:27.4 WEST
73 65 Westminster 18:27.9 NORTH
74 66 Richard Montgomery 18:29.3 WEST
75 67 Richard Montgomery 18:30.8 WEST
76 Perry Hall 18:31.0 NORTH
77 68 Annapolis 18:31.0 EAST
78 69 Severna Park 18:33.0 EAST
79 70 Sherwood 18:36.0 WEST
80 71 Annapolis 18:36.0 EAST
81 72 Roosevelt 18:36.0 SOUTH
82 73 North Point 18:38.0 EAST
83 74 Dulaney 18:38.0 NORTH
84 75 Magruder 18:39.3 WEST
85 76 Dulaney 18:40.5 NORTH
86 77 Dulaney 18:41.5 NORTH
87 78 Dulaney 18:41.9 NORTH
88 79 Magruder 18:42.8 WEST
89 80 Sherwood 18:43.4 WEST
90 81 Bowie 18:46.0 SOUTH
91 82 Wootton 18:47.8 WEST
92 83 Broadneck 18:50.0 EAST
93 84 Broadneck 18:51.0 EAST
94 85 Urbana 18:53.9 NORTH
95 86 Severna Park 18:55.0 EAST
96 87 Chesapeake 18:57.0 EAST
97 88 Roosevelt 18:58.0 SOUTH
98 89 Broadneck 18:59.0 EAST
99 90 Richard Montgomery 19:00.3 WEST
100 91 Urbana 19:04.8 NORTH
101 92 Leonardtown 19:07.0 EAST
102 93 Dulaney 19:08.4 NORTH
103 94 Walter Johnson 19:09.5 WEST
104 95 Magruder 19:12.9 WEST
105 96 North Point 19:13.0 EAST
106 97 Leonardtown 19:15.0 EAST
107 98 Dulaney 19:16.6 NORTH
108 99 Northwest 19:16.9 WEST
109 100 Sherwood 19:17.0 WEST
110 101 Bowie 19:19.0 SOUTH
111 102 Wootton 19:21.6 WEST
112 103 Urbana 19:22.9 NORTH
113 104 Broadneck 19:23.0 EAST
114 105 Urbana 19:27.4 NORTH
115 106 Magruder 19:27.4 WEST
116 107 Northwest 19:30.9 WEST
117 108 DuVal 19:31.0 SOUTH
118 109 North Point 19:34.0 EAST
119 110 Annapolis 19:36.0 EAST
120 111 Northwest 19:37.4 WEST
121 112 Westminster 19:38.0 NORTH
122 113 Westminster 19:38.4 NORTH
123 114 Bowie 19:40.0 SOUTH
124 115 Thomas Johnson 19:40.4 NORTH
125 116 Roosevelt 19:42.0 SOUTH
126 117 Westminster 19:43.4 NORTH
127 118 Broadneck 19:49.0 EAST
128 119 Chesapeake 19:51.0 EAST
129 120 Thomas Johnson 19:51.9 NORTH
130 121 Leonardtown 19:53.0 EAST
131 122 Leonardtown 19:58.0 EAST
132 123 North Point 20:04.0 EAST
133 124 Dulaney 20:06.8 NORTH
134 125 North Point 20:08.0 EAST
135 126 Annapolis 20:10.0 EAST
136 127 Thomas Johnson 20:14.3 NORTH
137 128 Thomas Johnson 20:19.1 NORTH
138 Flowers 20:28.0 SOUTH
139 129 Oxon Hill 20:39.0 SOUTH
140 130 Thomas Johnson 20:42.8 NORTH
141 131 Roosevelt 20:49.0 SOUTH
142 132 DuVal 21:07.0 SOUTH
143 133 DuVal 21:09.0 SOUTH
144 134 Oxon Hill 21:09.0 SOUTH
145 135 Oxon Hill 21:12.0 SOUTH
146 136 Thomas Johnson 21:18.8 NORTH
147 137 Westminster 21:52.6 NORTH
148 138 Bowie 22:20.0 SOUTH
149 139 Oxon Hill 23:08.0 SOUTH
150 140 DuVal 23:08.0 SOUTH
151 141 Oxon Hill 23:12.0 SOUTH
152 142 DuVal 23:38.5 SOUTH
153 143 DuVal 23:48.0 SOUTH
154 144 DuVal 23:50.0 SOUTH
155 145 Oxon Hill 23:58.0 SOUTH
156 146 Oxon Hill 24:08.0 SOUTH




The same methodology was applied to the 4A girls.







This method is a good way to get team scores when combining the 4A regions and loosely follows the speed rating methodology used in other parts of the country (most states don't have such disparity between regions). It assumes minimal change from the region to state meet, and therefore it is not a good predictor of individual finishes. I'm going to take out the runners' names to try to take the focus off the individual.

Before jumping all over this, consider the following:
1. Northwest will beat Whitman if both teams run like they ran at the regional meet. One point separated the two teams and the gap between Whitman's 4th and 5th runner will hurt more in a larger race like the state championship.
2. The model assumes all runners competed to the best of their ability at the regional meets. The girls in the 4A West certainly competed to the best of their ability, but if teams in other regions such as Severna Park held back or held runners out in the regional meet, then the model is no good. If Severna Park was competing to the best of their ability, the stats suggest they may not be the favorite.

1 Northwest 93 WEST
2 Whitman 100 WEST
3 Severna Park 101 EAST
4 Broadneck 136 EAST
5 Thomas Johnson 145 NORTH
6 Dulaney 149 NORTH
7 Urbana 191 NORTH
8 B-CC 234 WEST
9 Walter Johnson 252 WEST
10 Sherwood 273 WEST
11 Leonardtown 282 EAST
12 Wootton 289 WEST
13 Chesapeake 342 EAST
14 South River 344 EAST
15 Roosevelt 386 SOUTH
16 Richard Montgomery 400 WEST
17 Westminster 425 NORTH
18 Flowers 538 SOUTH
19 Wise 599 SOUTH
1 1 Whitman 19:20.9 WEST
2 2 Walter Johnson 19:46.1 WEST
3 3 Roosevelt 19:49.0 SOUTH
4 4 Thomas Johnson 19:51.4 NORTH
5 5 Walter Johnson 20:10.7 WEST
6 6 Whitman 20:16.1 WEST
7 7 Thomas Johnson 20:33.4 NORTH
8 Bowie 20:43.0 SOUTH
9 8 Northwest 20:50.0 WEST
10 9 B-CC 20:50.3 WEST
11 10 Thomas Johnson 20:53.5 NORTH
12 11 Urbana 20:57.3 NORTH
13 12 Broadneck 21:14.0 EAST
14 13 Severna Park 21:17.0 EAST
15 14 Whitman 21:20.1 WEST
16 15 Severna Park 21:23.0 EAST
17 16 Broadneck 21:25.0 EAST
18 17 Broadneck 21:27.0 EAST
19 North Point 21:34.0 EAST
20 Blair 21:34.7 WEST
21 18 Northwest 21:36.4 WEST
22 19 Northwest 21:36.5 WEST
23 20 Severna Park 21:37.0 EAST
24 21 Northwest 21:37.1 WEST
25 22 Whitman 21:37.7 WEST
26 23 Severna Park 21:39.0 EAST
27 24 Dulaney 21:40.3 NORTH
28 25 Dulaney 21:43.1 NORTH
29 26 Chesapeake 21:44.0 EAST
30 27 Northwest 21:52.0 WEST
31 28 Broadneck 21:52.0 EAST
32 29 Dulaney 21:53.4 NORTH
33 30 Severna Park 21:54.0 EAST
34 31 Urbana 21:58.4 NORTH
35 North County 22:04.0 EAST
36 Arundel 22:06.0 EAST
37 32 Severna Park 22:07.0 EAST
38 33 Wootton 22:10.6 WEST
39 34 Richard Montgomery 22:10.8 WEST
40 35 Dulaney 22:12.0 NORTH
41 36 Dulaney 22:12.2 NORTH
42 37 Sherwood 22:13.2 WEST
43 38 Sherwood 22:17.8 WEST
44 39 Urbana 22:20.4 NORTH
45 40 Sherwood 22:20.7 WEST
46 41 Wootton 22:21.7 WEST
47 42 Dulaney 22:22.0 NORTH
48 43 B-CC 22:23.0 WEST
49 44 Dulaney 22:23.5 NORTH
50 45 Severna Park 22:25.0 EAST
51 46 Westminster 22:26.8 NORTH
52 47 B-CC 22:27.8 WEST
53 48 South River 22:28.0 EAST
54 49 South River 22:29.0 EAST
55 50 Thomas Johnson 22:33.1 NORTH
56 51 Leonardtown 22:35.0 EAST
57 52 Leonardtown 22:37.0 EAST
58 53 B-CC 22:38.7 WEST
59 54 Urbana 22:41.6 NORTH
60 55 Leonardtown 22:43.0 EAST
61 56 Urbana 22:52.5 NORTH
62 57 Whitman 22:53.1 WEST
63 58 Urbana 22:57.0 NORTH
64 59 Leonardtown 22:58.0 EAST
65 60 Urbana 23:00.2 NORTH
66 61 Wootton 23:04.9 WEST
67 62 Flowers 23:05.0 SOUTH
68 63 Broadneck 23:06.0 EAST
69 64 Walter Johnson 23:08.7 WEST
70 65 Leonardtown 23:10.0 EAST
71 66 Whitman 23:12.7 WEST
72 67 Sherwood 23:13.0 WEST
73 68 Whitman 23:13.3 WEST
74 69 Chesapeake 23:15.0 EAST
75 70 Wootton 23:15.7 WEST
76 71 Broadneck 23:17.0 EAST
77 72 Roosevelt 23:20.0 SOUTH
78 73 Richard Montgomery 23:23.3 WEST
79 74 Thomas Johnson 23:26.0 NORTH
80 75 Chesapeake 23:27.0 EAST
81 76 Chesapeake 23:29.0 EAST
82 77 Thomas Johnson 23:34.1 NORTH
83 78 South River 23:36.0 EAST
84 79 Broadneck 23:37.0 EAST
85 80 South River 23:40.0 EAST
86 81 Westminster 23:41.0 NORTH
87 82 B-CC 23:42.9 WEST
88 83 Northwest 23:45.6 WEST
89 84 Wootton 23:45.9 WEST
90 85 Leonardtown 23:46.0 EAST
91 86 Northwest 23:48.3 WEST
92 87 Wootton 23:50.4 WEST
93 88 Walter Johnson 23:51.8 WEST
94 89 South River 23:53.0 EAST
95 90 Westminster 23:57.2 NORTH
96 Suitland 24:00.0 SOUTH
97 91 Sherwood 24:01.5 WEST
98 92 Thomas Johnson 24:02.4 NORTH
99 93 Walter Johnson 24:03.6 WEST
100 94 Richard Montgomery 24:06.1 WEST
101 95 South River 24:10.0 EAST
102 96 Chesapeake 24:12.0 EAST
103 97 South River 24:15.0 EAST
104 98 Richard Montgomery 24:15.1 WEST
105 99 Westminster 24:18.6 NORTH
106 100 Walter Johnson 24:19.8 WEST
107 101 Richard Montgomery 24:23.6 WEST
108 102 Roosevelt 24:26.0 SOUTH
109 Parkdale 24:27.0 SOUTH
110 103 B-CC 24:37.7 WEST
111 104 Roosevelt 24:45.0 SOUTH
112 105 Roosevelt 24:45.5 SOUTH
113 106 Wise 24:52.0 SOUTH
114 Bowie 24:57.0 SOUTH
115 107 Roosevelt 25:04.0 SOUTH
116 Northwestern 25:08.0 SOUTH
117 108 B-CC 25:17.5 WEST
118 109 Westminster 25:17.6 NORTH
119 110 Flowers 25:35.0 SOUTH
120 111 Wootton 25:41.9 WEST
121 112 Chesapeake 25:59.0 EAST
122 113 Westminster 26:01.3 NORTH
123 114 Westminster 26:02.4 NORTH
124 115 Richard Montgomery 26:04.2 WEST
125 116 Chesapeake 26:05.0 EAST
126 117 Flowers 26:09.0 SOUTH
127 118 Wise 26:15.0 SOUTH
128 119 Walter Johnson 26:33.0 WEST
129 120 Sherwood 26:44.4 WEST
130 121 Wise 26:57.0 SOUTH
132 122 Flowers 27:22.0 SOUTH
133 123 Roosevelt 27:37.0 SOUTH
134 124 Richard Montgomery 28:25.3 WEST
135 125 Sherwood 28:52.0 WEST
136 126 Wise 31:23.0 SOUTH
137 127 Flowers 31:34.0 SOUTH
138 128 Wise 33:37.0 SOUTH
139 129 Wise 34:35.0 SOUTH
140 130 Wise 34:52.0 SOUTH





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