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Divisional Analysis Week 4
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2011-10-03


Boys Picks:
Walter Johnson over Northwest
Churchill over Quince Orchard
Quince Orchard over Sherwood
Churchill over Sherwood
Whitman over B-CC
Whitman over Magruder
Whitman over Damascus
B-CC over Magruder
B-CC over Damascus
Magruder over Damascus
Blair over Springbrook
Gaithersburg over Clarksburg
Gaithersburg over Rockville
Clarksburg over Rockville
Paint Branch over Northwood
Blake over Watkins Mill
Kennedy over Seneca Valley
Girls Picks:
Northwest over Walter Johnson
Churchill over Quince Orchard
Quince Orchard over Sherwood
Churchill over Sherwood
Whitman over B-CC
Whitman over Magruder
Whitman over Damascus
B-CC over Magruder
B-CC over Damascus
Magruder over Damascus
Blair over Springbrook
Clarksburg over Gaithersburg
Gaithersburg over Rockville
Clarksburg over Rockville
Northwood over Paint Branch
Blake over Watkins Mill
Kennedy over Seneca Valley

Girls Standings

Quince Orchard

3-0

Wootton

4-1

Churchill

2-1

Sherwood

1-2

Northwest

1-3

Walter Johnson

0-4

Whitman

1-0

B-CC

3-1

R. Montgomery

2-1

Magruder

1-1

Damascus

1-2

Poolesville

0-3

Blair

4-0

Springbrook

3-1

Clarksburg

2-1

Gaithersburg

1-2

Einstein

1-4

Rockville

0-3

Kennedy

5-0

Northwood

4-1

Blake

3-2

Seneca Valley

3-2

Watkins Mill

1-3

Paint Branch

0-3

Wheaton

0-5

Boys Standings

Churchill

3-0

Walter Johnson

3-1

Quince Orchard

2-1

Wootton

2-3

Sherwood

1-2

Northwest

0-4

Poolesville

3-0

R. Montgomery

3-0

Whitman

1-0

B-CC

1-3

Magruder

0-2

Damascus

0-3

Einstein

5-0

Gaithersburg

2-1

Clarksburg

2-1

Rockville

2-1

Blair

0-4

Springbrook

0-4

Paint Branch

5-0

Northwood

4-1

Wheaton

4-2

Blake

3-2

Seneca Valley

1-4

Kennedy

1-4

Watkins Mill

0-5

Division I

Division I will be decided at Sherwood this Tuesday as the Chuchill boys and Quince Orchard girls look to sweep the division with undefeated records. The Churchill boys are heavy favorites and we will leave it at that.

The girls race gets much more tricky. The Quince Orchard girls have an unlikely story after defeating the deep Wootton girls team by taking a 1-2-3 sweep. The Paul Short Invitational showed that they are definitely moving in the right direction and closing the gap between their #3-5 runners with the help of a couple freshmen. QO could shut the door on any dramatics by soundly beating Sherwood and Churchill.

The problem is that Sherwood and Churchill are comparable teams to QO, and I believe Churchill will defeat QO and Sherwood. If that is the case, Churchill, QO, and Wootton will all be tied atop the division with 4 wins and 1 loss. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED IN MCPS CROSS COUNTRY IN ANY DIVISION SINCE 2006. Unfortunately that means I can't remember what the tie-breaker is.

Alternatively, let's say that Sherwood beats QO but Churchill beats both. Then Churchill and Wootton would be tied at 4-1 and you would think that Wootton would win the division outright because they defeated Churchill (quite easily). But again, someone throw me an MCPS rule book, please.

If Sherwood runs really tough at home and beats both teams and QO beats Churchill, Wootton and QO would be tied at 4-1 and Wootton would again have the head-to-head advantage, if that even is an advantage.

Finally, if Sherwood beats both opponents and Churchill beats QO, Wootton can celebrate because they will win the division outright with four wins and one loss. Each other team will have at least two losses.

Just because I want to complicate things further, I am going to bring up last week's tie between Northwest and Sherwood in which Northwest won on the sixth runner tie-breaker while Sherwood's #1 runner was out sick. My bold prediction is that Sherwood will tie for the second week in a row, 28 to 28 against Quince Orchard and QO will win on the sixth runner tie-breaker. Then Churchill will beat both teams and I won't have any idea who wins the division, but Seann Pelkey will know because he knows all the rules.

Division II

Is this a trick or a treat? A previously unscheduled rematch between the Whitman and B-CC girls at Lake Needwood in the middle of the season? Team-wise, it is a trick. The match up between Whitman and B-CC will not count towards the divisional standings. Coaches might score it for fun, but I'm afraid it doesn't count. Individually, it is going to be a treat to see 8 of the top 14 individuals on Mocorunning's county ranking racing against one another.

The Whitman boys and girls will be trying to stay undefeated against Magruder and Damascus for next week's big match up with Poolesville and Richard Montgomery.

Division III

The Einstein boys were the first to claim a division title last week. I mistakenly announced on Facebook that the Blair girls also claimed the division III title, but they must still take down Springbrook this week. I suspect that will happen.

Gaithersburg hosts Clarksburg and Rockville in what will be the first running on the new county championship course.

Division IV

The Kennedy girls are set up to win their first cross country division title since 1988 according to coach Dave Warren. Only Seneca Valley stands in the way after the Kennedy girls ran perfectly against Northwood last week.

We haven't seen much of the Paint Branch boys this year, but they have won convincingly in all of their dual meets. Northwood may give them their toughest challenge, but PB has to be the favorite.





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