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Statistically Generated County Rankings
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2011-10-18


These rankings and times are based on the statistical individual rankings that have been published on this site for six years. Read about this ranking system to help you understand it. It is a fun and easy way to track and objectively rank a large number of athletes. The system tends to be reasonably accurate when it comes to statistical models predicting human performance.

The most important thing here is where the runners are ranked relative to one another. The system is not necessarily designed to predict times for a specific meet, but since the point system is based on time (1 second = 2 points), it is possible to predict times. All of the times can collectively be shifted up or down based on course difficulty and race conditions, but runners will always be separated by the same amount of time.

The new county championship course has been tested only once in a tri-meet and times were not especially fast. With every team in the county, faster times should be produced given good weather on race day. Guessing that the course will produce similar times to previous years and perhaps similar times to this year's Paul Short Invitational, the scale was established with a top time that allows most of the runners in the race to run personal records of a few seconds.

Ranking Season Progression
Name School Year Projected Time Pre wk 1 wk 3 wk 4 wk 5 wk 7
1 Anna Ryba Whitman 2012 18:57.4 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Caroline Guiot Whitman 2012 18:57.7 6 6 3 3 2 2
3 Abbey Daley Clarksburg 2013 19:08.0 3 3 4 5 4 3
4 Lucy Srour Churchill 2015 19:08.3 5 4 5 4
5 Alexandra Phillips Whitman 2012 19:20.1 2 2 2 2 3 5
6 Elena De La Paz Richard Montgomery 2012 19:33.0 8 7 8 6 6 6
7 Ava Farrell B-CC 2012 19:34.8 4 4 6 8 8 7
8 Isabelle Latour Quince Orchard 2013 19:42.0 12 10 10 9 8
9 Morgana D'Ottavi Blair 2014 19:42.8 5 5 7 7 7 9
10 Nora McUmber B-CC 2015 19:50.8 16 11 12 11
11 Chelsie Pennello Poolesville 2014 19:54.4 12 13 20 16 19 12
12 Caroline Elmendorf Whitman 2013 20:01.5 10 8 9 9 11 13
13 Naomi Sheppard Northwest 2014 20:02.4 7 9 13 14 18 14
14 Jacqui Young Clarksburg 2012 20:05.0 23 23 14 18 16 15
15 Madeline Rico Wootton 2012 20:11.3 9 10 11 15 17 16
16 Abby Fry B-CC 2015 20:15.6 17
17 DeeDee Montiel Springbrook 2013 20:18.5 12 13 15 18
18 Laura Nakasaka B-CC 2013 20:19.7 15 16 15 12 13 19
19 Nicole Ihrie Whitman 2015 20:21.7 34 23 28 14 20
20 Kat McNeill B-CC 2015 20:22.9 17 19 21 21
21 Lucie Noall Clarksburg 2015 20:23.0 22
22 Grace McDonald Sherwood 2014 20:23.8 13 14 22 20 26 23
23 Melanie Cirillo Walter Johnson 2015 20:24.8 27 27 20 24
24 Hallie Jester B-CC 2012 20:25.0 30 29 25
25 Karen Cohen Wootton 2012 20:28.0 11 11 18 21 22 26
26 Hannah Buchek Blair 2012 20:32.4 52 57 23 23 27
27 Amanda Tomlinson Sherwood 2013 20:35.3 18 19 25 25 27 28
28 Grace Corbett Wootton 2012 20:42.1 31 38 32 30
29 Regina Schreiber Quince Orchard 2014 20:44.1 38 32 29 26 24 31
30 Jackie Weiss Sherwood 2012 20:44.4 17 18 28 32 33 32
31 Grace Hanger Richard Montgomery 2014 20:45.1 52 59 45 46 41 33
32 Allison Marella Damascus 2013 20:46.1 30 29 44 34 31 34
33 Catherine Panasenkov Quince Orchard 2013 20:50.7 24 26 33 29 30 35
34 Alison Baruch Wootton 2013 20:52.4 35 33 34 37
35 Paula Rabade Churchill 2014 20:55.0 36 39 40 39 36 38
36 Caroline Leuba B-CC 2013 20:56.8 35 38 53 56 52 39
37 Elizabeth Frank Whitman 2012 20:57.3 21 21 21 24 28 40
38 Emily Levenson Wootton 2012 21:00.0 43 48 50 41 42 41
39 Susan McGrattan Wootton 2013 21:00.3 25 25 30 36 38 42
40 Gillian Tosatto Sherwood 2013 21:02.3 16 17 24 31 39 43
41 Shannon Oleynik Magruder 2012 21:07.1 49 49 48 44
42 Emily Balcombe Northwest 2012 21:08.0 39 41 52 45 45 45
43 Kirsten Schroeder Wootton 2013 21:09.2 39 47 55 47
44 Genevieve Garland Churchill 2014 21:09.4 48
JVU1 Hilary Gelfond Wootton 2012 21:09.5 53 60 62 64 49
JVL1 Elise Green Wootton 2014 21:09.5 50
45 Gabriela Arrazola Magruder 2012 21:09.8 51 52
JVL2 Angie Peterson B-CC 2014 21:11.5 52 46 55
JVL3 Dana Sung Wootton 2014 21:13.0 56
JVL4 Lexi Levenson Wootton 2014 21:13.2 26 27 38 42 40 57
46 Sydney Almeida Springbrook 2013 21:13.8 48 49 58
47 Cierra Wells Quince Orchard 2015 21:15.3 55 61 59
JVU2 Alexandra Rotello Wootton 2013 21:18.3 51 44 44 60
48 Keegan Van Wert Quince Orchard 2015 21:18.7 54 61
49 Sara Shonkwiler Montgomery Blair 2014 21:18.8 49 55 51 59 62
50 Harriet Symmington Whitman 2014 21:19.4 33 30 37 40 47 63
51 Lauren Logan Einstein 2014 21:23.2 32 37 41 53 57 65
JVU3 Jessica Haley Wootton 2012 21:24.0 66
52 Juhee Kim Churchill 2014 21:24.5 67
53 Mara Erb Magruder 2014 21:24.9 68
54 Elka Lee-Shapiro Richard Montgomery 2014 21:25.0 42 58 58 53 69
55 Breanna Boggan Churchill 2014 21:25.1 70
56 Julia Shapiro Quince Orchard 2012 21:27.7 35 47 43 43 71
57 Jinhie Skarda Blair 2013 21:32.9 45 57 59 60 63 72
JVL5 Annie McElvein B-CC 2015 21:36.5 73
JVU4 Justine Wood Whitman 2013 21:38.5 45 68 63 74
JVU5 Laura Elmendorf Whitman 2013 21:38.7 22 31 60 75
JVL6 Amanda Cohen B-CC 2014 21:39.9 42 47 65 59 62 76
Ranking Season Progression
Name School Year Projected Time Pre wk 1  wk 3  wk 4 wk 5  wk 7
1 Will Conway Churchill 2012 16:07.6 1 1 1 2 2 2
2 Josh Ellis Walter Johnson 2012 16:15.2 4 4 3 3 3 4
3 Evan Laratta Quince Orchard 2012 16:16.3 6 6 5 4 5 5
4 Joshua Trzeciak Wootton 2013 16:26.5 11 10 7 6 7 6
5 Nick Adams Whitman 2012 16:26.7 34 21 19 21 20 7
6 Zachary Weinstein Churchill 2012 16:27.4 2 3 4 5 6 8
7 Luke Shannon Churchill 2012 16:31.8 12 11 14 11 10 9
8 Matthew Stitzlein Sherwood 2012 16:32.2 30 31 16 17 13 11
9 Evan Burnham Quince Orchard 2012 16:36.5 22 15 12 19 12
10 Sushen Thiyagarajan Churchill 2012 16:37.8 18 17 11 15 17 14
11 Chase Weaverling Poolesville 2014 16:38.6 28 30 39 36 28 15
12 Nick Simpson Einstein 2013 16:39.4 14 13 13 13 14 16
13 James Ertel Wootton 2012 16:41.5 31 23 24 17
14 David Levine Wootton 2013 16:43.9 17 15 22 18 22 19
15 Naimbai Njerakey Wheaton 2012 16:44.1 22 18 30 14 15 20
16 David Fitzgerald Churchill 2015 16:44.7 20 19 12 21
17 Scott Sheehan Walter Johnson 2012 16:46.2 8 8 8 10 8 23
18 Ben Withbroe Einstein 2013 16:50.2 16 14 25 29 23 24
19 James Duncan Walter Johnson 2012 16:57.8 41 31 31 26
20 James Sauro Walter Johnson 2012 16:57.9 32 32 40 34 26 27
21 Stephen Alexander Richard Montgomery 2014 16:59.3 18 26 25 29
22 Alex Hevey Einstein 2012 16:59.9 35 36 44 39 39 31
23 Jonaton Baginski Rockville 2014 17:01.6 28 28 34 32
24 Matthew Morris Montgomery Blair 2014 17:02.0 43 43 33
25 Joey Sonken Quince Orchard 2013 17:02.3 23 32 40 41 34
26 Joey Werble Poolesville 2013 17:04.2 35 30 29 36
27 Michael Pasti Magruder 2013 17:05.2 21 26 24 24 30 37
28 Matt Kogan Churchill 2012 17:06.2 33 41 45 39
29 Alex Riishojgaard B-CC 2014 17:07.0 50 40
30 Trever Reed Gaithersburg 2012 17:07.6 37 38 49 45 44 41
31 Michael Borten Quince Orchard 2012 17:07.9 35 53 54 49 42
32 Dustin Kang Sherwood 2013 17:08.0 21 25 38 44
33 Ben Crites Walter Johnson 2013 17:09.8 19 20 26 27 27 45
34 Michael Spak Walter Johnson 2014 17:11.1 57 46
35 Jordan Psaltakis Poolesville 2012 17:11.3 38 36 47
36 Samuel Haugrud Walter Johnson 2012 17:12.0 58 49
37 Peter Horton B-CC 2014 17:13.4 51 50
38 Nicholas McGrievy B-CC 2013 17:13.5 51
39 Danniel Belay Gaithersburg 2014 17:13.5 54 56 54 52
40 Dereje Alemu Sherwood 2013 17:14.3 56 46 47 53
41 Dominic Quiros Richard Montgomery 2014 17:14.9 48 51 48 54
42 Vikram Siberry Sherwood 2013 17:15.4 40 40 57 55 60 55
JVL1 Franklin Floresca Walter Johnson 2014 17:16.2 42 53 62 57
43 Will Severynse Wootton 2012 17:16.5 36 37 60 61 58
44 Mark Montgomery Richard Montgomery 2012 17:16.7 36 44 52 59
JVL2 Daniel Kosogof Walter Johnson 2014 17:17.7 48 63 60
45 Evan Woods Whitman 2015 17:19.0 63
46 Sean McMahon Richard Montgomery 2012 17:19.5 33 33 46 50 59 64
47 Elijah Dejesus Quince Orchard 2012 17:20.3 65
48 Daniel Valero Winston Churchill 2012 17:24.4 55 67
49 David Hamilton Richard Montgomery 2012 17:25.5 61 68


JVL = Junior Varsity Lowerclass (9/10)
JVU = Junior Varsity Upperclass (11/12)

Girls teams with five or more ranked runners:
Whitman 39
B-CC 71
Wootton 140
Quince Orchard 165
Churchill 190

Boys teams with five or more ranked runners:
Churchill 40
Walter Johnson 91
Quince Orchard 115
Richard Montgomery 201





Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

Ben Withbroe
2011-10-19 19:38:14

Actually, my season was over as of practice on monday, when I got some bad cuts on my left leg and had to get 34 stitches and an immobilizer on my left leg. Watch out for me in outdoor, though!

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