The fifth best runner on a cross country team is just as important if not more important than the
number one runner when it comes to team scoring, something that sets this sport apart from any
other team sport. But what is this "team spread" analysis that you may hear tossed around from
time to time? Is there really anything to it? Afterall, the objective in cross country is to get
the fewest points which means the lowest possible places and fastest times. There are no medals
awarded for having a small team spread.
This is not complicated sabermetrics as found in baseball analytics. The top five spread in cross
country is simply the gap between the first and fifth runners on a team. To calculate it, subtract
the time of the first runner from the time of the fifth runner.
I suspect that the "team spread" was an analysis point used by cross country pundits ever since
the five man team scoring system was invented. The team spread as a lone data point is not useful
at all - five runners crossing the finish line at the same time at the front of the race and five
runners crossing at the same time in last place will have the same team spread. But with a little
context, the spread becomes a somewhat useful tool in comparing teams that have not raced or maybe
never will race. Averaging out team spreads from multiple performances with identical runners
allows for even more meaningful analysis. For example, if you know the typical or average team
spread and typical 5k times, you can begin to draw a conclusion about the strength of a team, even
if they live on the other side of the world and you know nothing else about them or their
opponents. You could also use this as a starting point to compare teams across different
generations.
The term "spread" became standard lingo on running message boards, especially when debating the
best high school teams in the nation before there was a Nike XC Nationals. It is by no means the
only or the best metric to analyze cross country teams, but it is simple and readily understood by
anyone with interest in the sport.
I'm not talking about a pasta dinner when I look at this year's Clarksburg girls team and say,
"Wow, what an incredible spread." I am also not crowning them the greatest team in the area. I am,
however, in awe of what seems to be an amazing statistical anomoly.
Here is a look at the Clarksburg girls top-5 spread in five meets this year (and because they have
six similar girls, I extended this table to the top 6 runners).
A 12.1 second spread in a competitive 5k race at the Blazers Invite is incredible. A 29.7 second
spread on a difficult course like Bull Run is almost as impressive. A six second spread in any
competitive race just doesn't happen unless the competitors back off and intentionally all finish
together.
So are the Clarksburg girls backing off just to finish together? According to Clarksburg Coach Rob
Burke, both his boys and girls teams are intentionally practicing pack-running, but they certainly
are not dogging it.
"We work on pack running in practice and pace work at least one day a week," said Burke. "We
realize we don't have any superstars so we really do work on pack running. We tell the girls to
find each other in the races and they've been really good at it."
Okay, so the girls are really, really good at finding each other in a crowd. That's useful when
you are at an amusement park in July or a shopping mall in December. But statistically to have six
girls finish within 10 or 20 seconds in a 5k race must mean that someone is not working their
hardest, right?
Not according to Burke who directed all his girls to stick together throughout the race
and also kick as hard as they could in the last quarter mile of the Gaithersburg dual
meet.
"When you get down to it, our girls are very, very equal. If you want me to rank who the top three
are, I couldn't tell you."
Burke also added, "We want the boys to do it, too, and they are getting a little bit better at
it."
I was curious about two things.
1.) Is the top-5 spread by itself an indicator of team success? As mentioned above, five slow
runners can all finish at the same time and have a miniscule spread, but in the real world, is
there a correlation to a small spread and winning?
2.) What were some of the historically low top-5 spreads in recent Montgomery County history?
There is a 14 year history of the Montgomery County Championship Meet hosted at Gaithersburg High
School so what better meet to use for comparison across the years than the meet where every team
gathers at the same time every year? (while the county course changed significantly in 2011,
variations in the course are insignificant for this analysis. The fact that Clarksburg's six-
second spread occured on the county championship course at Gaithersburg is a favorable
coincidence.)
Here are the lowest top-5 spreads at the Montgomery County Championship Meet in that time span
along with the team standing of that team in that given year.
Best Female Top-5 Runner Spreads
Montgomery County Championship Meet at Gaithersburg (2000-2014 excluding 2002)
=======================================================================
Rank Year Place School Spread
=======================================================================
1 2011 3 Thomas S Wootton 00:19.6
2 2008 3 Damascus XC 00:28.0
3 2013 4 Walt Whitman 00:31.0
4 2012 10 Walter Johnson 00:40.1
5 2010 2 Northwest 00:40.8
6 2010 12 Col. Zadok Magruder 00:47.3
7 2012 11 Montgomery Blair 00:48.5
8 2013 6 Albert Einstein 00:50.0
9 2008 9 Montgomery Blair 00:51.9
10 2011 1 Bethesda-Chevy Chase 00:54.9
11 2004 10 Damascus 00:55.5
12 2000 1 Walter Johnson 00:55.6
13 2012 3 Thomas S Wootton 00:57.4
14 2013 2 Walter Johnson 00:58.0
15 2006 3 Richard Montgomery 00:59.6
16 2014 5 Richard Montgomery 00:59.9
17 2003 6 Walter Johnson 01:00.9
18 2009 11 Richard Montgomery 01:03.0
19 2012 5 Walt Whitman 01:03.5
20 2000 6 Wootton 01:04.8
21 2010 3 Thomas S Wootton 01:06.4
22 2010 7 Quince Orchard 01:08.3
23 2005 4 Whitman 01:09.0
24 2014 4 Albert Einstein 01:09.6
25 2010 9 Damascus 01:10.3
Looking at the above chart, I think teams with small spreads are just as likely to take 10th place
at the county championship as they are to take 1st place. But if you believe that a top 10 team
finish at the county meet is a quality finish, then there does seem to be a correlation between
low spreads and quality performances.
The corresponding chart for boys is twice as scattered as the girls. And in this compilation of
teams with small spreads we see just as many teams in the bottom half of the county as we see in
the top half. One must conclude, as we could have guessed with no analysis at all, that the top-5
spread in and of itself has no correlation to team success.
But no time spent filtering through stats is a total waste. These tables certainly provide a
clearer picture of how often or how rare it is for teams to register 40, 30, or 20 second spreads
in competitive 5k meets. The girls table above affirms that the Clarksburg girls clockings of
under 13 seconds for a top-5 spread twice before we get to the midway point of the season is
something rare and special indeed.
Best Male Top-5 Runner Spreads
Montgomery County Championship Meet at Gaithersburg (2000-2014 excluding 2002)
=======================================================================
Rank Year Place School Spread
=======================================================================
1 2006 3 Gaithersburg 00:19.2
2 2006 23 John F. Kennedy 00:21.0
3 2009 3 Damascus 00:22.0
4 2012 1 Walter Johnson 00:23.4
5 2014 25 Seneca Valley 00:25.9
6 2010 16 Montgomery Blair 00:26.5
7 2007 6 Walter Johnson 00:29.7
8 2011 8 Richard Montgomery 00:30.4
9 2012 20 Springbrook 00:31.3
10 2008 14 Wootton 00:32.4
11 2008 13 Albert Einstein 00:33.3
12 2012 4 Sherwood 00:33.6
13 2006 7 Northwest 00:33.8
14 2001 19 Blake 00:33.9
15 2005 4 Richard Montgomery 00:34.0
16 2003 4 Wootton 00:35.4
17 2007 10 Winston Churchill 00:36.5
18 2008 6 Damascus 00:36.9
19 2001 18 Wheaton 00:37.4
20 2011 1 Winston Churchill 00:37.8
21 2013 3 Richard Montgomery 00:39.0
22 2013 17 Wheaton 00:39.0
23 2013 15 Albert Einstein 00:39.0
24 2005 3 Quince Orchard 00:39.0
25 2014 9 Albert Einstein 00:39.1
Boys top-5 spreads seem to be much smaller than those of the girls. This makes sense simply from
the notion that the longer the race, the larger the spread would be expected to be (think 100
meters versus 10 miles). Of course girls run the same distance as the boys, but they are racing
for two to three minutes longer.
Let's just give you a little bit more food for thought by adding one more filter to the analysis.
Let's only include boys teams with a #1 boy under 17:00 and a top-5 spread of less than 60
seconds. Let's limit the girls to 1:20 spreads and a #1 girl under 21:00.
Are we looking at a list of the greatest teams of the last fifteen years? Absolutely not! It
excludes some of the very best teams led by oustanding front-runners. But I am confident that this
is a list of the greatest pack-running teams of the last fifteen years. Afterall, how could
you ever precisely define "the greatest pack-running team" when there is always a tradeoff between
a small spread and the fastest possible times? Let the debate begin.
Male Top-5 Spreads Less Than 60 Seconds w/ #1 Runner Under 17:00
Montgomery County Championship Meet at Gaithersburg (2000-2014 excluding 2002)
=======================================================================
Year Place School #1 Boy Spread
=======================================================================
2008 1 Walter Johnson 16:02.7 00:45.9
2013 1 Bethesda-Chevy Chase 16:08 00:57.0
2011 1 Winston Churchill 16:09.1 00:37.8
2006 1 Quince Orchard 16:09.2 00:55.1
2011 2 Walter Johnson 16:12.3 00:44.0
2009 1 Walter Johnson 16:18 00:58.0
2012 1 Walter Johnson 16:18.4 00:23.4
2008 3 Northwest 16:20.7 00:39.3
2010 7 Damascus 16:26.8 00:53.5
2014 4 Walter Johnson 16:29.0 00:57.3
2013 3 Richard Montgomery 16:30 00:39.0
2001 1 Northwest 16:31.6 00:46.3
2014 3 Bethesda-Che 16:33.0 00:43.9
2010 6 Thomas S Wootton 16:34.2 00:56.4
2014 2 Winston Churchill 16:36.4 00:42.0
2012 4 Sherwood 16:37.5 00:33.6
2011 5 Sherwood 16:37.6 00:54.2
2010 5 Albert Einstein 16:38.8 00:50.4
2013 5 Quince Orchard 16:40 00:59.0
2008 6 Damascus 16:43.3 00:36.9
2003 7 Magruder 16:43.6 00:54.4
2008 5 Richard Montgomery 16:44.7 00:44.1
2009 2 Winston Churchill 16:46 00:49.0
2004 3 Whitman 16:47.1 00:49.5
2006 6 Richard Montgomery 16:50.4 00:54.1
2013 12 Winston Churchill 16:51 00:54.0
2007 4 Northwest 16:51.6 00:45.6
2003 4 Wootton 16:51.7 00:35.4
2004 5 B-C C 16:53.1 00:57.5
2011 8 Richard Montgomery 16:57.5 00:30.4
2014 9 Albert Einstein 16:58.5 00:39.1
2012 6 Richard Montgomery 16:58.9 00:42.9
2006 3 Gaithersburg 16:59.4 00:19.2
Female Top-5 Spreads Less Than 1:20 w/ #1 Runner Under 21:00
Montgomery County Championship Meet at Gaithersburg (2000-2014 excluding 2002)
=======================================================================
Year Place School #1 Girl Spread
=======================================================================
2011 1 Bethesda-Chevy Chase 19:17.7 00:54.9
2004 1 Northwest 19:20.1 01:19.3
2013 2 Walter Johnson 19:21 00:58.0
2004 2 Quince Orchard 19:26.0 01:19.1
2010 2 Northwest 19:44.9 00:40.8
2010 3 Thomas S Wootton 19:50.6 01:06.4
2014 4 Albert Einstein 19:52.4 01:09.6
2012 3 Thomas S Wootton 19:58.6 00:57.4
2010 6 Richard Montgomery 19:59.5 01:15.2
2013 4 Walt Whitman 20:02 00:31.0
2008 3 Damascus 20:05.8 00:28.0
2011 3 Thomas S Wootton 20:08.0 00:19.6
2013 6 Albert Einstein 20:08 00:50.0
2014 5 Richard Montgomery 20:08.4 00:59.9
2006 3 Richard Montgomery 20:10.5 00:59.6
2012 5 Walt Whitman 20:10.9 01:03.5
2003 6 Walter Johnson 20:26.9 01:00.9
2000 1 Walter Johnson 20:27.5 00:55.6
2010 7 Quince Orchard 20:38.4 01:08.3
2009 5 Damascus 20:39 01:17.0
2005 4 Whitman 20:40.0 01:09.0
2012 10 Walter Johnson 20:43.4 00:40.1
2012 11 Montgomery Blair 20:46.3 00:48.5
2010 9 Damascus 20:52.5 01:10.3
2000 6 Wootton 20:53.5 01:04.8
2008 9 Blair 20:59.1 00:51.9
Name
Comments
Sunday, October 04, 2015 11:13:43 PM
Great article!
hey gurl
Monday, October 05, 2015 03:08:08 PM
cool topic, well-written, nice way to make the historical stats relevant!
westner
Friday, January 29, 2016 02:31:08 PM
I did not see this when you wrote it last fall and just saw it now. Great article. I don’t have access to full records for every season going back to the 60’s or 70’s, but I have seen most results starting from when I was in high school to current. The spreads of teams lately is far off what seems to be a “golden era†of incredible spreads which was in the late 90’s to early 00’s. You wrote that the 12.1 spread by the Clarksburg girls was incredible. It is indeed very good. I am even more impressed though by the spread of just under 30 seconds at Bull Run (assuming you are referring to Bull Run at Hereford and not the Bull Run Invite that used to be/maybe still is in Virginia).
Why do I say the late 90’s to early 00’s was a “golden era†of xc spreads in our county/state? Here is some data that you may find interesting:
The lowest time spread that I have ever seen/know of was one that I am very proud to say I was part of. At the 1998 4A West Regional, Gaithersburg had their top 5 runners within an 11 second span. From Mike Murray’s 4th place finish in 15:37 to Marcus Hershberger’s 10th place finish in 15:48, we won the regional title. Whitman had a 39 second spread in that meet and lost.
If I told you that a team had a 21 second spread at the County Championships, most everyone would think that team would almost certainly win, right? WRONG. That same year, 1998, at the same course (Blake), Gaithersburg had just a 21 second spread (15:43-16:04) and lost to Whitman. This is despite the fact that Whitman had a slightly larger spread (23 seconds from 15:19-15:52).
Those Whitman teams in the late 90’s, especially in 97 and 98, were probably the best a pack running in MoCo history. In 97 Whitman won the county xc title at Watkins Mill with just a 22 second spread (16:50-17:12) and won the regional 4a west with just a 20 second spread (16:46-17:06).
Crazy right? So in just 1998 at the County Meet, two teams had spreads of 23 seconds or less and a team with a 21 second spread did not win the county title. In the Region meet that year two teams had spreads of 39 seconds or less.
I’ve looked and I cannot find anything that even comes close to that. You know what impresses me the most though? In 2001, CM Wright (I know it’s not MoCo, but it’s still Maryland), had a spread of just 30 seconds (16:38-17:08) at the 4A state meet at Hereford.
My response to your questions that you asked in your article is that as great as xc spreads are, the scoring spread is what matters the most. Teams that have an elite runner or two, usually is not the team that will have tight spreads time wise. That may not matter though if their first runner wins the race with a super low time but their 5th guy is a top 15 or so guy in the county then you could have a spread of maybe 90 seconds but the scoring spread could see all 5 scoring runners in the top 10. Case in point is how Gaithersburg had a 21 second spread and lost the county meet to a team with a spread of 23 seconds.
