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Boys XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2015-10-20


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/19/2015). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.

Boys County Championship 5k Projections
=====================================================================================
Rank	Name			School			Year	    Projected Time
=====================================================================================
1	Rohann Asfaw		Richard Montgomery	2017		15:47.2
2	Michael Abebe		Northwood		2016		16:03.8
3	Liam Walsh		Quince Orchard		2016		16:05.0
4	Branson Oduor		Northwest		2016		16:07.5
5	Colin SyBing		Wootton			2016		16:12.1
6	Joachim El-Masry	Richard Montgomery	2018		16:21.4
7	Cliff Tilley		Wootton			2016		16:24.1
8	Alejandro Arias		Einstein		2016		16:24.1
9	Lucas Heinzerling	B-CC			2016		16:24.4
10	James Newport		Blake			2016		16:29.6
11	Dylan Kannapell		B-CC			2016		16:31.8
12	Ben Gersch		Whitman			2016		16:31.9
13	Jacob Rushkoff		Wootton			2016		16:33.0
14	Adam Sarsony		Rockville		2016		16:34.4
15	Komlan Attiogbe		Northwest		2017		16:37.0
16	Carter May		Walter Johnson		2016		16:38.3
17	Mitchell Welter		Churchill		2016		16:39.0
18	Jason Shefferman	Churchill		2016		16:41.7
19	Simeon Mussie		Einstein		2018		16:44.8
20	Adam Nakasaka		B-CC			2018		16:45.7
21	John Riker		Wootton			2019		16:48.6
22	Jacob Grant		Churchill		2016		16:49.3
23	Daniel Singer		Walter Johnson		2016		16:53.1
24	Elton Quansah		Northwest		2017		16:53.4
25	Colin Loiacono		Sherwood		2016		16:54.1
26	Chase Osborne		Northwest		2018		16:54.5
27	Tyler Wilson		Einstein		2018		16:55.1
28	Christian McCann	Quince Orchard		2016		16:57.1
29	Jose Infante-Rosale	Northwest		2017		16:57.7
30	Michael Hughes		Churchill		2016		16:58.7
31	Josh Fry		B-CC			2018		17:01.6
32	Jason Scott		Wheaton			2017		17:02.2
33	Rory O'Neil		Northwest		2017		17:02.7
34	Benjamin Shapiro	Wootton			2017		17:03.1
35	Patrick Winter		Walter Johnson		2016		17:03.2
36	Dominic Massimino	Blair			2017		17:04.1
37	Alexander Mangiafico	Blair			2016		17:04.4
38	Saahr Edouard		Walter Johnson		2018		17:05.9
39	Emanuel Villanueva	Gaithersburg		2016		17:06.0
40	Ethan Mara		Quince Orchard		2018		17:07.0
41	Ben Macek		Damascus		2016		17:07.1
42	David Mejia		Springbrook		2016		17:07.2
43	Joe Amaya		Wheaton			2016		17:08.1
44	Evan Pollack		Blake			2018		17:10.6
45	Jonah Rosenblum		B-CC			2017		17:11.6
46	Justin Travis		Rockville		2016		17:11.6
47	Samuel Blackman		Wootton			2016		17:11.6
48	Kevin O'Leary		Walter Johnson		2016		17:11.6
49	Mir Pandya		Clarksburg		2016		17:10.7
50	Ngoy Jeriel Yamitshi	Northwest		2017		17:13.7
51	Michael Thomas		Clarksburg		2016		17:14.5
52	Jacob Rains		B-CC			2017		17:14.5
53	Chris Thoms		Quince Orchard		2018		17:15.7
54	Renato Nunez		Wootton			2017		17:16.6
55	Thomas Winkert		Churchill		2016		17:17.0
56	Shashank Narayan	Walter Johnson		2016		17:19.1
57	John Stout		Blake			2016		17:20.4
58	Mac Morgan		Richard Montgomery	2016		17:20.5
59	Ben Geertseema		Blair			2016		17:21.2

Boys County Championship Team Projections (5+ Ranked Runners Required)
======================================================
Rank	School		Projected Points
======================================================
1	Wootton 	      80
2	Northwest 	      98
3	B-CC 		      116
4 	Churchill 	      142
5 	Walter Johnson 	      160

The Ranking Formula

Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners to one another in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. The net point exchange will be zero with a few exceptions that I won't go into right here. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Hereford. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/19/2015 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed with the intention of projecting places and times for the county championship 5k course. The points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time imaginable, and he would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. But it's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of year every year. Of course weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years. The RED line is an average of those four years, cut off at about 90th place. Under the assumption that this is an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school boys are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my YELLOW projected line to land on the red line as closely as possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the yellow line. The curvature of the yellow line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my yellow line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. You can see that it is a little conservative for the top 5 to 10 boys and maybe a little over-optimistic for the last 20 boys compared to what we actually see in the real world. It is the best I can do given the relationship of the ranked runners as dictated by the points system. The yellow and red lines line up well around 15th place, so I assigned a time of 16:37 to the 15th place runner and all the other times fell in line based on the points system.



You will also notice that the 2014 curve seems drastically improved after about 125th place compared to previous years. It's because last year was the first year that 10 individuals per team were permitted in the varsity race.





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