Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/16/2016). Scroll to
the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Boys 5k Projected County Times
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Pl Name School Year Time Points
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1 Rohann Asfaw R. Montgomery 2017 15:21.3 1
2 Ryan Lockett Poolesville 2018 15:55.9 2
3 Andrew Lent Poolesville 2017 15:56.9 3
4 Aaron Bratt Whitman 2019 16:01.3 4
5 Adam Nakasaka B-CC 2018 16:01.3 5
6 Obsaa Feda Northwood 2019 16:09.5 6
7 Simeon Mussie Einstein 2018 16:13.1 7
8 Joshua Engels Whitman 2018 16:20.4 8
9 John Riker Wootton 2019 16:22.4 9
10 Jason Scott Wheaton 2017 16:23.2 10
11 Josh Fry B-CC 2018 16:26.0 11
12 Jose Infante Northwest 2017 16:36.0 12
13 Matthew Goldsmith Churchill 2017 16:37.7 13
14 Garrett Suhr R. Montgomery 2020 16:40.5 14
15 Tyler Wilson Einstein 2018 16:42.2 15
16 Chase Osborne Northwest 2018 16:44.0 16
17 Zachary Worthman Clarksburg 2019 16:44.2 17
18 Emerson Miller Kennedy 2017 16:44.4 18
19 Komlan Attiogbe Northwest 2017 16:44.5 19
20 Rory O'Neil Northwest 2017 16:45.8 20
21 Tristram Dorr Einstein 2020 16:47.9 21
22 Vicente Rudolph Churchill 2017 16:49.7 22
23 Peter Antonetti Gaithersburg 2018 16:50.4 23
24 Ethan Tagliere Sherwood 2019 16:50.9 24
25 Ethan Mara Quince Orchard 2018 16:52.8 25
26 Moti Heda Springbrook 2018 16:53.2 26
27 Joachim El-Masry R. Montgomery 2018 16:54.6 27
28 Daniel Rogers Northwest 2018 16:55.6 28
29 Ebenezer Arunkumar Springbrook 2017 16:57.8 29
30 Joseph Pohoryles Wootton 2019 16:57.8 30
31 Nicholas Karayianis Churchill 2020 16:59.2 31
32 Ngoy Jeriel Yamitshi Northwest 2017 17:00.3 32
33 Evan Pollack Blake 2018 17:00.3 33
34 Matthew Halverson Churchill 2017 17:00.9 34
35 Elton Quansah Northwest 2017 17:01.4 35
36 Anthony Meza Poolesville 2018 17:02.0 36
37 Steven Anderson Paint Branch 2017 17:02.1 37
38 Vincente Maltagliati Paint Branch 2019 17:02.6 38
39 Newell Mulugeta Paint Branch 2019 17:02.6 39
40 Sebastian Jones B-CC 2017 17:03.7 40
41 Hermon Tesfatsion B-CC 2019 17:03.8 41
42 Jacob Rains B-CC 2017 17:04.1 42
43 Bryan Midlam Seneca Valley 2017 17:04.3 43
44 Joshua Tiren Poolesville 2018 17:04.6 44
45 Brian Hung Blake 2017 17:05.3 45
46 James Cobau B-CC 2018 17:05.6 46
47 Mitchell Fanger Wootton 2018 17:05.7 47
48 Jonah Rosenblum B-CC 2017 17:06.0 48
49 Kevin McAuliffe B-CC 2019 17:06.3
50 Dominic Massimino Blair 2017 17:06.8 49
51 Giresse Achouakong Seneca Valley 2017 17:06.9 50
52 Philip Miljanic R. Montgomery 2017 17:07.9 51
53 Nathaniel Kinyanjui Blair 2019 17:09.0 52
54 Stefan Lehman Walter Johnson 2017 17:09.6 53
55 Connor Lawrence Wootton 2017 17:10.3 54
56 Benjamin Shapiro Wootton 2017 17:10.3 55
57 Alex Leipold B-CC 2017 17:11.2
58 Miguel Salcido Quince Orchard 2018 17:11.8 56
59 Declan Scott Gaithersburg 2017 17:12.6 57
60 Howard Kirk Rockville 2019 17:12.9 58
61 Noah Dalbey Blair 2017 17:13.7 59
62 Matthew Owens Quince Orchard 2017 17:13.8 60
63 Thierry Siewe Yanga Blair 2017 17:13.9 61
64 Troy Davis Wootton 2017 17:14.3 62
65 Wyatt McCabe Quince Orchard 2017 17:14.5 63
66 Chris Thoms Quince Orchard 2018 17:14.6 64
67 Ryan Holland Blair 2018 17:14.7 65
68 Amin Mirzaie Churchill 2017 17:18.1 66
69 Justin Turner Sherwood 2017 17:19.6 67
70 Jackson Kilosky Clarksburg 2018 17:22.1 68
71 Garret Kern Blair 2017 17:22.2 69
Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
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Pl School Projected Points
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1 Northwest 95
2 B-CC 139
3 Churchill 166
4 Wootton 195
5 Quince Orchard 268
6 Blair 286
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Poolesville, Richard Montgomery
The Ranking Formula
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE.
The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only
matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked
runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. The net point exchange
will be zero with a few exceptions that I won't go into right here. One of the important things to know is that there is
no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no
benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most
important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/16/2016 with a couple
notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the
county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points
do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he would be ranked
200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and
he would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point
totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once
one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the
ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that
will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same
exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Of course weather is also a factor,
but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity
runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last two years plus a line showing
the average finish time between those two years. The curve of the lines changed a good bit when the rules changed to
allow 10 runners in the varsity race in 2014 so we will only include the last two years. 2015 was far and away the
fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday afternoon on a beautiful day with dry
weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will regress back
towards a more typical year like 2014 (which also lines up pretty well with the previous three years). Under the
assumption that 2016 is an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or
worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the AVG line as closely as possible. I can't
manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can
only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise
ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
Name
Comments
Josh Fry
Friday, October 21, 2016 07:53:27 AM
Adam went sub 15:53 at Adidas and you think he won't break 16 again here?
Friday, October 21, 2016 01:05:45 PM
^bcc kids b like
Watkins Mill Parent
Friday, October 21, 2016 01:07:02 PM
Kick ass, Tristram Dorr!
Math/English Teacher
Friday, October 21, 2016 07:53:29 PM
Josh, Adam ran sub 16 at Adidas, not sub 15:53. He ran 15:53. Gosh.
Sweaty and nervous mother from Gaithersburg
Saturday, October 22, 2016 12:47:40 AM
No No NO!!!! THESE RESULTS CAN'T BE WRIGHT!?!?!?!?
Sweaty and nervous mother from Gaithersburg
Saturday, October 22, 2016 12:47:46 AM
No No NO!!!! THESE RESULTS CAN'T BE WRIGHT!?!?!?!?
