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Boys XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2016-10-18


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/16/2016). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.

Boys 5k Projected County Times
========================================================================================
Pl	Name			School			Year	Time		Points
========================================================================================
1	Rohann Asfaw		R. Montgomery		2017	15:21.3		1
2	Ryan Lockett		Poolesville		2018	15:55.9		2
3	Andrew Lent		Poolesville		2017	15:56.9		3
4	Aaron Bratt		Whitman			2019	16:01.3		4
5	Adam Nakasaka		B-CC			2018	16:01.3		5
6	Obsaa Feda		Northwood		2019	16:09.5		6
7	Simeon Mussie		Einstein		2018	16:13.1		7
8	Joshua Engels		Whitman			2018	16:20.4		8
9	John Riker		Wootton			2019	16:22.4		9
10	Jason Scott		Wheaton			2017	16:23.2		10
11	Josh Fry		B-CC			2018	16:26.0		11
12	Jose Infante		Northwest		2017	16:36.0		12
13	Matthew Goldsmith	Churchill		2017	16:37.7		13
14	Garrett Suhr		R. Montgomery		2020	16:40.5		14
15	Tyler Wilson		Einstein		2018	16:42.2		15
16	Chase Osborne		Northwest		2018	16:44.0		16
17	Zachary Worthman	Clarksburg		2019	16:44.2		17
18	Emerson Miller		Kennedy			2017	16:44.4		18
19	Komlan Attiogbe		Northwest		2017	16:44.5		19
20	Rory O'Neil		Northwest		2017	16:45.8		20
21	Tristram Dorr		Einstein		2020	16:47.9		21
22	Vicente Rudolph		Churchill		2017	16:49.7		22
23	Peter Antonetti		Gaithersburg		2018	16:50.4		23
24	Ethan Tagliere		Sherwood		2019	16:50.9		24
25	Ethan Mara		Quince Orchard		2018	16:52.8		25
26	Moti Heda		Springbrook		2018	16:53.2		26
27	Joachim El-Masry	R. Montgomery		2018	16:54.6		27
28	Daniel Rogers		Northwest		2018	16:55.6		28
29	Ebenezer Arunkumar	Springbrook		2017	16:57.8		29
30	Joseph Pohoryles	Wootton			2019	16:57.8		30
31	Nicholas Karayianis	Churchill		2020	16:59.2		31
32	Ngoy Jeriel Yamitshi	Northwest		2017	17:00.3		32
33	Evan Pollack		Blake			2018	17:00.3		33
34	Matthew Halverson	Churchill		2017	17:00.9		34
35	Elton Quansah		Northwest		2017	17:01.4		35
36	Anthony Meza		Poolesville		2018	17:02.0		36
37	Steven Anderson		Paint Branch		2017	17:02.1		37
38	Vincente Maltagliati	Paint Branch		2019	17:02.6		38
39	Newell Mulugeta		Paint Branch		2019	17:02.6		39
40	Sebastian Jones		B-CC			2017	17:03.7		40
41	Hermon Tesfatsion	B-CC			2019	17:03.8		41
42	Jacob Rains		B-CC			2017	17:04.1		42
43	Bryan Midlam		Seneca Valley		2017	17:04.3		43
44	Joshua Tiren		Poolesville		2018	17:04.6		44
45	Brian Hung		Blake			2017	17:05.3		45
46	James Cobau		B-CC			2018	17:05.6		46
47	Mitchell Fanger		Wootton			2018	17:05.7		47
48	Jonah Rosenblum		B-CC			2017	17:06.0		48
49	Kevin McAuliffe		B-CC			2019	17:06.3	
50	Dominic Massimino	Blair			2017	17:06.8		49
51	Giresse Achouakong	Seneca Valley		2017	17:06.9		50
52	Philip Miljanic		R. Montgomery		2017	17:07.9		51
53	Nathaniel Kinyuanjui	Blair			2019	17:09.0		52
54	Stefan Lehman		Walter Johnson		2017	17:09.6		53
55	Connor Lawrence		Wootton			2017	17:10.3		54
56	Benjamin Shapiro	Wootton			2017	17:10.3		55
57	Alex Leipold		B-CC			2017	17:11.2	
58	Miguel Salcido		Quince Orchard		2018	17:11.8		56
59	Declan Scott		Gaithersburg		2017	17:12.6		57
60	Howard Kirk		Rockville		2019	17:12.9		58
61	Noah Dalbey		Blair			2017	17:13.7		59
62	Matthew Owens		Quince Orchard		2017	17:13.8		60
63	Thierry Siewe Yanga	Blair			2017	17:13.9		61
64	Troy Davis		Wootton			2017	17:14.3		62
65	Wyatt McCabe		Quince Orchard		2017	17:14.5		63
66	Chris Thoms		Quince Orchard		2018	17:14.6		64
67	Ryan Holland		Blair			2018	17:14.7		65
68	Amin Mirzaie		Churchill		2017	17:18.1		66
69	Justin Turner		Sherwood		2017	17:19.6		67
70	Jackson Kilosky		Clarksburg		2018	17:22.1		68
71	Garret Kern		Blair			2017	17:22.2		69

Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
=========================================
Pl	School		Projected Points
=========================================
1	Northwest		95
2	B-CC			139
3	Churchill		166
4	Wootton			195
5	Quince Orchard		268
6	Blair			286

Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Poolesville, Richard Montgomery


The Ranking Formula

Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. The net point exchange will be zero with a few exceptions that I won't go into right here. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/16/2016 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Of course weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last two years plus a line showing the average finish time between those two years. The curve of the lines changed a good bit when the rules changed to allow 10 runners in the varsity race in 2014 so we will only include the last two years. 2015 was far and away the fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday afternoon on a beautiful day with dry weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will regress back towards a more typical year like 2014 (which also lines up pretty well with the previous three years). Under the assumption that 2016 is an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the AVG line as closely as possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.






Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

Josh Fry
2016-10-21 07:53:27

Adam went sub 15:53 at Adidas and you think he won't break 16 again here?


2016-10-21 13:05:45

^bcc kids b like

Watkins Mill Parent
2016-10-21 13:07:02

Kick ass, Tristram Dorr!

Math/English Teacher
2016-10-21 19:53:29

Josh, Adam ran sub 16 at Adidas, not sub 15:53. He ran 15:53. Gosh.

Sweaty and nervous mother from Gaithersburg
2016-10-22 00:47:40

No No NO!!!! THESE RESULTS CAN'T BE WRIGHT!?!?!?!?

Sweaty and nervous mother from Gaithersburg
2016-10-22 00:47:46

No No NO!!!! THESE RESULTS CAN'T BE WRIGHT!?!?!?!?

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