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Girls XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2017-10-17


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/15/2017). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected Girls 5k County Championship Performances
================================================================================
Pl	Name			School		Year	Project Time	Points
================================================================================
1	Abigail Green		Walter Johnson	2018	17:40.0		1
2	Nandini Satsangi	Poolesville	2019	18:46.0		2
3	Yasmine Kass		Paint Branch	2018	18:56.2		3
4	Janet Scott		Walter Johnson	2018	19:11.5		4
5	Jenna Goldberg		Walter Johnson	2020	19:12.6		5
6	Morgan Casey		Blair		2018	19:14.6		6
7	Jessica Trzeciak	Wootton		2019	19:14.9		7
8	Heather Delaplaine	Damascus	2018	19:36.8		8
9	Charlotte Turesson	R. Montgomery	2021	19:44.5		9
10	Emma Henderson		Wootton		2018	19:51.1		10
11	Alicia Lauwers		Whitman		2020	19:54.6		11
12	Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz	Damascus	2020	19:54.9		12
13	Sophia Scobell		Walter Johnson	2018	19:55.2		13
14	Helena Lee		Northwest	2020	19:56.0		14
15	Isabelle Sajonia	Quince Orchard	2018	19:56.1		15
16	Nefrit El-Masry		R. Montgomery	2018	19:56.2		16
17	Logan Rohde		Poolesville	2020	20:01.3		17
18	Paula Bathalon		Whitman		2020	20:02.5		18
19	Madison Armonda		Northwood	2019	20:05.3		19
20	Adna Trakic		Wootton		2019	20:05.9		20
21	Emily Gravell		Sherwood	2018	20:07.6		21
22	Alyssa D'Arpa		Wootton		2020	20:09.5		22
23	Zuri Rashad		Paint Branch	2018	20:12.1		23
24	Avery Jackson		Clarksburg	2020	20:12.2		24
25	Anaiah Little-Diop	B-CC		2018	20:12.3		25
26	Breanna McDonald	Whitman		2019	20:14.1		26
27	Sadie Keller		Walter Johnson	2018	20:16.9		27
28	Margaret Lilyestrom	Quince Orchard	2019	20:19.5		28
29	Erin Chelf		Wootton		2019	20:19.5		29
30	Elizabeth Sklaire	Whitman		2020	20:19.8		30
31	Emmersen Weinberg	Whitman		2020	20:27.5		31
32	Perrin Myers		Churchill	2021	20:28.4		32
33	Josephine Brane-Wright	Blair		2018	20:32.5		33
34	Michelle Campano	R. Montgomery	2020	20:33.4		34
35	Marissa Branham		Northwest	2019	20:33.6		35
36	Anjali Iyer		Churchill	2020	20:34.4		36
37	Isadora Germain		Blair		2018	20:36.8		37
38	Gabriela Jeliazkov	B-CC		2019	20:37.7		38
39	Rosalind Van Der Does	B-CC		2020	20:38.6		39
40	Joelle Sadd		Clarksburg	2021	20:39.8		40
41	Madeline Grainger	Wootton		2019	20:39.9		41
42	Ella Gaul		Walter Johnson	2021	20:40.1		42
43	Madeleine Blaisdell	Whitman		2020	20:40.3		43
44	Carolin Kennon		Walter Johnson	2020	20:40.4		44
45	Sofia Grossman		Sherwood	2019	20:41.2		45
46	Alyssa McCloskey	Clarksburg	2018	20:42.6		46
47	Jessie Williams		Einstein	2019	20:47.1		47
48	Leah Kannan		Blair		2020	20:48.5		48
49	Brooke Kistler		Northwest	2020	20:50.4		49
50	Kate Danzinger		Churchill	2018	20:51.8		50
51	Jessica Zito		Walter Johnson	2021	20:52.4	
52	Jahmei Wyatt		Clarksburg	2021	20:55.4		51
53	Camille Gagne		Walter Johnson	2021	20:55.4	
54	Jamie Grossberg		Quince Orchard	2019	20:59.5		52
55	Ella Jacobs		Blake		2021	21:00.6		53
56	Alexa Donaldson		Sherwood	2019	21:05.1		54
57	Soraya Bernal		B-CC		2021	21:05.1		55
58	Anna Baldwin		Wootton		2020	21:05.9		56
59	Christina Karayianis	Churchill	2018	21:07.4		57
60	Rena Edery		Wootton		2019	21:07.6	
61	Virginia Brown		B-CC		2019	21:08.0		58
62	Laura Koye		B-CC		2018	21:08.2		59
63	Mira Diamond-Berman	Blair		2020	21:09.0		60
64	Elizabeth Cassell	Quince Orchard	2018	21:09.0		61
65	Juliana Capizzi		B-CC		2021	21:09.4		62
66	Lauren Zhou		R. Montgomery	2019	21:09.6		63
67	Elise Durr		Gaithersburg	2019	21:10.4		64
68	Katherine Weaver	Walter Johnson	2020	21:12.0	
69	Ashley Nguyen		Northwest	2018	21:12.4		65
70	Ryan Sandoval		Sherwood	2020	21:12.4		66
71	Anna Moore		Blair		2019	21:14.5		67
72	Anne Elliott		Damascus	2018	21:14.7		68
73	Rebecca Wessel		Blair		2019	21:15.2		69
74	Emma Helgeson		Wootton		2021	21:15.7	
75	Kathy Pena-Molina	Magruder	2018	21:15.9		70
76	Eva Loewenstein		Springbrook	2019	21:16.6		71
77	Jasmine De La Vega	R. Montgomery	2018	21:16.8		72
78	Sage Kumar		Wootton		2019	21:17.0	
79	Amelia Guenterberg	Sherwood	2018	21:17.4		73
80	Helena Abbott		Walter Johnson	2019	21:21.0	
81	Isabel Present		Blair		2018	21:23.2	
82	Juliana Ancalmo		Damascus	2018	21:23.9		74
83	Bianca Zeigler		Northwest	2019	21:24.6		75

Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
=========================================
Pl	School		Projected Points
=========================================
1.	Walter Johnson		50
2.	Wootton			88
3.	Whitman			116
4.	Blair			184
5.	Richard Montgomery	194
6.	B-CC			215
7.	Northwest		238
8.	Sherwood		259
	
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Churchill, Clarksburg, Damascus, Quince Orchard


The Ranking Formula

Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/15/2017 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last three years plus a line showing the average finish time between those three years. 2015 was far and away the fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday afternoon on a beautiful day with dry weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will regress back towards a more typical year like 2014 and 2016. Under the assumption that 2017 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.






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