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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 8 (10/21/2018). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Obsaa Feda Northwood 2019 15:30.3 1
2 Eldad Mulugeta Northwood 2019 15:36.0 2
3 Zachary Worthman Clarksburg 2019 15:58.4 3
4 John Riker Wootton 2019 15:59.4 4
5 Aidan Smyth B-CC 2019 16:00.3 5
6 Rodrigo Yepez-Lopez Walter Johnson 2020 16:14.8 6
7 Aaron Bratt Whitman 2019 16:21.2 7
8 Nahom Ftwi Northwest 2019 16:22.4 8
9 Baraka Sila Northwood 2019 16:25.6 9
10 Newell Mulugeta Paint Branch 2019 16:27.8 10
11 Leoluca Cannuscio Blair 2019 16:28.1 11
12 Surafel Mengist Springbrook 2020 16:32.9 12
13 Michael Murphy Whitman 2019 16:33.8 13
14 Dalton Yu Whitman 2019 16:35.9 14
15 Vincente Maltagliati Paint Branch 2019 16:38.1 15
16 Lamar Wilson Northwood 2022 16:38.7 16
17 Sam Bodmer Poolesville 2020 16:42.1 17
18 Sean Enright Sherwood 2020 16:43.0 18
19 Ezra Dessie Paint Branch 2019 16:44.4 19
20 Anthony Meza Poolesville 2019 16:44.8 20
21 Jacob Marks Walter Johnson 2020 16:46.6 21
22 Nicholas Olano R. Montgomery 2020 16:47.4 22
23 Richard Qiao Wootton 2019 16:47.7 23
24 Michael Madrigal B-CC 2019 16:47.8 24
25 Meehir Bhalla Wootton 2019 16:48.8 25
26 Joseph Pohoryles Wootton 2019 16:49.8 26
27 Mulisa Reggasa Northwood 2019 16:51.4 27
28 Jack Anderson Sherwood 2021 16:52.0 28
29 Amanueal Tensaye Paint Branch 2019 16:54.8 29
30 Walta Neguse Northwood 2019 16:55.5 30
31 Gabriel Worthington Blair 2020 16:55.7 31
32 Aidan Goldenberg-Hart R. Montgomery 2020 16:56.1 32
33 Henok Eshetu Northwood 2020 16:59.5 33
34 Alexander Moore Northwest 2019 17:00.4 34
35 Emerson Hemley B-CC 2019 17:00.8 35
36 Garrett Suhr R. Montgomery 2020 17:01.1 36
37 Mark Unger R. Montgomery 2019 17:01.6 37
38 Levi Bryant Einstein 2021 17:02.1 38
39 Seth Bangser Walter Johnson 2020 17:02.7 39
40 Timothy Jiang Wootton 2019 17:06.0 40
41 Tsach Mackey Churchill 2021 17:06.1 41
42 Obi Onwuamaegbu Whitman 2019 17:06.1 42
43 Timothy Franklin Gaithersburg 2019 17:11.6 43
44 Rafael Berhanu R. Montgomery 2021 17:13.7 44
45 Joel Simpson Blair 2021 17:14.0 45
46 Ryan Carlson Blair 2020 17:14.5 46
47 Connor O'brien R. Montgomery 2019 17:15.2 47
48 Max Worley Blair 2020 17:16.1 48
49 Andrew Misura Churchill 2020 17:16.6 49
50 Alex Scott Walter Johnson 2021 17:18.1 50
51 Matthew Cauley Whitman 2020 17:18.4 51
52 Stefan Ney Northwest 2020 17:18.4 52
53 Moises Valle Springbrook 2019 17:19.3 53
54 Lucas Fernandez Clarksburg 2019 17:20.8 54
55 Abel Shiferaw Springbrook 2021 17:20.8 55
56 Rahil Sheth Springbrook 2019 17:21.1 56
57 Sam Eig Clarksburg 2020 17:22.2 57
58 Lamine Fofana Northwood 2020 17:22.6
59 Gregory Garner Whitman 2021 17:23.0 58
60 Abdurahman Muhammad Northwood 2019 17:24.1
61 Simon Wang Churchill 2019 17:24.3 59
62 Daniel Nusraty Churchill 2021 17:26.0 60
63 Yabsira Gugsa Paint Branch 2020 17:26.9 61
64 Julien Bastin Wootton 2019 17:27.1 62
65 Joey Caiazza-Blum B-CC 2020 17:28.5 63
66 Caden DeValle Damascus 2021 17:28.6 64
67 Joshua Tiren Poolesville 2019 17:29.6 65
68 William Chan Churchill 2019 17:29.7 66
69 Nihar Majmudar Northwest 2019 17:29.8 67
70 Joshua Bloomberg Sherwood 2019 17:29.8 68
71 Ben Rumsfeld Whitman 2019 17:30.1 69
72 Jeremy Simon B-CC 2022 17:30.9 70
73 Yarhiv Simhony Walter Johnson 2022 17:31.8 71
74 Patrick Rodriguez Poolesville 2019 17:31.9 72
75 Redeate Kidane Gaithersburg 2019 17:32.1 73
76 Jason Wang Wootton 2022 17:32.1 74
77 Joseph DeJong Franklin Wootton 2020 17:32.1
78 Ryan Temple Blair 2020 17:32.3 75
79 Andrew Schell Walter Johnson 2022 17:32.3 76
80 Omar Aly Churchill 2019 17:33.3 77
81 Alejandro Fornell-Balaban R. Montgomery 2021 17:33.3 78
82 Abou Sow Blair 2019 17:33.6 79
83 Mateus Kelly Clarksburg 2019 17:33.9 80
84 Simera Segni Blair 2019 17:34.1
85 Johan Deyonou Einstein 2020 17:34.1 81
86 Lewis Sisler B-CC 2021 17:34.3 82
87 Nathaniel Grey Walter Johnson 2020 17:35.1 83
88 Allen Moises Walter Johnson 2020 17:35.1
89 Jackson Megary Whitman 2022 17:35.4
90 Benjamin Lesser Whitman 2020 17:35.6
91 Chris Stallard Poolesville 2021 17:39.0 84
92 Esrom Weldegiorgis Blair 2020 17:39.2
93 Howard Kirk Rockville 2019 17:40.8 85
94 Sebastian Angel Churchill 2020 17:41.6 86
95 Jairo Huaylinos Poolesville 2019 17:43.5 87
Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
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1. Northwood 55
2. Wootton 118
3. Whitman 127
4. Paint Branch 134
5. Richard Montgomery 171
6. Blair 181
7. Walter Johnson 187
8. B-CC 197
9. Poolesville 258
10. Churchill 275
Four Ranked Runners: Northwest, Springbrook, Clarksburg
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 8 ranking published on 10/21/2017 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years plus a line showing the average finish times between those four years. Under the assumption that 2018 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
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