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Boys XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2018-10-21


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 8 (10/21/2018). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
========================================================================================================
Pl	Name				School		Year		Projected Time	Points
========================================================================================================
1	Obsaa Feda			Northwood	2019		15:30.3		1
2	Eldad Mulugeta			Northwood	2019		15:36.0		2
3	Zachary Worthman		Clarksburg	2019		15:58.4		3
4	John Riker			Wootton		2019		15:59.4		4
5	Aidan Smyth			B-CC		2019		16:00.3		5
6	Rodrigo Yepez-Lopez		Walter Johnson	2020		16:14.8		6
7	Aaron Bratt			Whitman		2019		16:21.2		7
8	Nahom Ftwi			Northwest	2019		16:22.4		8
9	Baraka Sila			Northwood	2019		16:25.6		9
10	Newell Mulugeta			Paint Branch	2019		16:27.8		10
11	Leoluca Cannuscio		Blair		2019		16:28.1		11
12	Surafel Mengist			Springbrook	2020		16:32.9		12
13	Michael Murphy			Whitman		2019		16:33.8		13
14	Dalton Yu			Whitman		2019		16:35.9		14
15	Vincente Maltagliati		Paint Branch	2019		16:38.1		15
16	Lamar Wilson			Northwood	2022		16:38.7		16
17	Sam Bodmer			Poolesville	2020		16:42.1		17
18	Sean Enright			Sherwood	2020		16:43.0		18
19	Ezra Dessie			Paint Branch	2019		16:44.4		19
20	Anthony Meza			Poolesville	2019		16:44.8		20
21	Jacob Marks			Walter Johnson	2020		16:46.6		21
22	Nicholas Olano			R. Montgomery	2020		16:47.4		22
23	Richard Qiao			Wootton		2019		16:47.7		23
24	Michael Madrigal		B-CC		2019		16:47.8		24
25	Meehir Bhalla			Wootton		2019		16:48.8		25
26	Joseph Pohoryles		Wootton		2019		16:49.8		26
27	Mulisa Reggasa			Northwood	2019		16:51.4		27
28	Jack Anderson			Sherwood	2021		16:52.0		28
29	Amanueal Tensaye		Paint Branch	2019		16:54.8		29
30	Walta Neguse			Northwood	2019		16:55.5		30
31	Gabriel Worthington		Blair		2020		16:55.7		31
32	Aidan Goldenberg-Hart		R. Montgomery	2020		16:56.1		32
33	Henok Eshetu			Northwood	2020		16:59.5		33
34	Alexander Moore			Northwest	2019		17:00.4		34
35	Emerson Hemley			B-CC		2019		17:00.8		35
36	Garrett Suhr			R. Montgomery	2020		17:01.1		36
37	Mark Unger			R. Montgomery	2019		17:01.6		37
38	Levi Bryant			Einstein	2021		17:02.1		38
39	Seth Bangser			Walter Johnson	2020		17:02.7		39
40	Timothy Jiang			Wootton		2019		17:06.0		40
41	Tsach Mackey			Churchill	2021		17:06.1		41
42	Obi Onwuamaegbu			Whitman		2019		17:06.1		42
43	Timothy Franklin		Gaithersburg	2019		17:11.6		43
44	Rafael Berhanu			R. Montgomery	2021		17:13.7		44
45	Joel Simpson			Blair		2021		17:14.0		45
46	Ryan Carlson			Blair		2020		17:14.5		46
47	Connor O'brien			R. Montgomery	2019		17:15.2		47
48	Max Worley			Blair		2020		17:16.1		48
49	Andrew Misura			Churchill	2020		17:16.6		49
50	Alex Scott			Walter Johnson	2021		17:18.1		50
51	Matthew Cauley			Whitman		2020		17:18.4		51
52	Stefan Ney			Northwest	2020		17:18.4		52
53	Moises Valle			Springbrook	2019		17:19.3		53
54	Lucas Fernandez			Clarksburg	2019		17:20.8		54
55	Abel Shiferaw			Springbrook	2021		17:20.8		55
56	Rahil Sheth			Springbrook	2019		17:21.1		56
57	Sam Eig				Clarksburg	2020		17:22.2		57
58	Lamine Fofana			Northwood	2020		17:22.6		
59	Gregory Garner			Whitman		2021		17:23.0		58
60	Abdurahman Muhammad		Northwood	2019		17:24.1		
61	Simon Wang			Churchill	2019		17:24.3		59
62	Daniel Nusraty			Churchill	2021		17:26.0		60
63	Yabsira Gugsa			Paint Branch	2020		17:26.9		61
64	Julien Bastin			Wootton		2019		17:27.1		62
65	Joey Caiazza-Blum		B-CC		2020		17:28.5		63
66	Caden DeValle			Damascus	2021		17:28.6		64
67	Joshua Tiren			Poolesville	2019		17:29.6		65
68	William Chan			Churchill	2019		17:29.7		66
69	Nihar Majmudar			Northwest	2019		17:29.8		67
70	Joshua Bloomberg		Sherwood	2019		17:29.8		68
71	Ben Rumsfeld			Whitman		2019		17:30.1		69
72	Jeremy Simon			B-CC		2022		17:30.9		70
73	Yarhiv Simhony			Walter Johnson	2022		17:31.8		71
74	Patrick Rodriguez		Poolesville	2019		17:31.9		72
75	Redeate Kidane			Gaithersburg	2019		17:32.1		73
76	Jason Wang			Wootton		2022		17:32.1		74
77	Joseph DeJong Franklin		Wootton		2020		17:32.1		
78	Ryan Temple			Blair		2020		17:32.3		75
79	Andrew Schell			Walter Johnson	2022		17:32.3		76
80	Omar Aly			Churchill	2019		17:33.3		77
81	Alejandro Fornell-Balaban	R. Montgomery	2021		17:33.3		78
82	Abou Sow			Blair		2019		17:33.6		79
83	Mateus Kelly			Clarksburg	2019		17:33.9		80
84	Simera Segni			Blair		2019		17:34.1		
85	Johan Deyonou			Einstein	2020		17:34.1		81
86	Lewis Sisler			B-CC		2021		17:34.3		82
87	Nathaniel Grey			Walter Johnson	2020		17:35.1		83
88	Allen Moises			Walter Johnson	2020		17:35.1		
89	Jackson Megary			Whitman		2022		17:35.4		
90	Benjamin Lesser			Whitman		2020		17:35.6		
91	Chris Stallard			Poolesville	2021		17:39.0		84
92	Esrom Weldegiorgis		Blair		2020		17:39.2		
93	Howard Kirk			Rockville	2019		17:40.8		85
94	Sebastian Angel			Churchill	2020		17:41.6		86
95	Jairo Huaylinos			Poolesville	2019		17:43.5		87

Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
=================================================
1. Northwood		55
2. Wootton		118
3. Whitman		127
4. Paint Branch		134
5. Richard Montgomery	171
6. Blair		181
7. Walter Johnson	187
8. B-CC			197
9. Poolesville		258
10. Churchill		275

Four Ranked Runners: Northwest, Springbrook, Clarksburg
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 8 ranking published on 10/21/2017 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years plus a line showing the average finish times between those four years. Under the assumption that 2018 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.






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Sub 19
2018-10-22 20:52:41

Are Mark Unger and Garrett Suhr healthy?


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