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Girls XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2018-10-21


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 8 (10/21/2018). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
========================================================================================================
Pl	Name					School		Year		Projected Time	Points
========================================================================================================
1	Katie Kaneko				Sherwood	2022		18:30.6		1
2	Nandini Satsangi			Poolesville	2019		18:32.8		2
3	Charlotte Turesson			R.Montgomery	2021		18:36.8		3
4	Jessica Trzeciak			Wootton		2019		18:48.5		4
5	Emma Wolf				R.Montgomery	2021		19:02.9		5
6	Madison Armonda				Northwood	2019		19:04.2		6
7	Ella Gaul				Walter Johnson	2021		19:04.2		7
8	Jenna Goldberg				Walter Johnson	2020		19:06.0		8
9	Avery Jackson				Clarksburg	2020		19:08.3		9
10	Adna Trakic				Wootton		2019		19:17.5		10
11	Breanna McDonald			Whitman		2019		19:18.4		11
12	Alicia Lauwers				Whitman		2020		19:18.5		12
13	Chelsea Montau				Seneca Valley	2021		19:21.4		13
14	Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz			Damascus	2020		19:24.7		14
15	Helena Lee				Northwest	2020		19:34.7		15
16	Lauren Zhou				R.Montgomery	2019		19:44.3		16
17	Leah Kannan				Blair		2020		19:44.3		17
18	Emmersen Weinberg			Whitman		2020		19:44.4		18
19	Erin Chelf				Wootton		2019		19:49.1		19
20	Victoria Shumakovich			Wootton		2020		19:50.4		20
21	Elizabeth Sklaire			Whitman		2020		19:52.6		21
22	Margaret Lilyestrom			Quince Orchard	2019		19:55.9		22
23	Emily Gravell				Sherwood	2021		19:56.9		23
24	Adrienne Bruch				Walter Johnson	2019		19:57.7		24
25	Rosalind van der Does de Willebois	B-CC		2020		19:58.4		25
26	Logan Rohde				Poolesville	2020		20:03.7		26
27	Jessie Williams				Einstein	2019		20:05.2		27
28	Paula Bathalon				Whitman		2020		20:08.8		28
29	Madeleine Blaisdell			Whitman		2020		20:09.1		29
30	Soraya Bernal				B-CC		2021		20:12.5		30
31	Ellie Rogers				Walter Johnson	2022		20:12.7		31
32	Elise Durr				Gaithersburg	2019		20:12.7		32
33	Joelle Sadd				Clarksburg	2021		20:15.2		33
34	Anna Baldwin				Wootton		2020		20:17.4		34
35	Anjali Iyer				Churchill	2020		20:17.5		35
36	Fiona Kelleher				B-CC		2020		20:18.4		36
37	Lauren Anderson				Churchill	2022		20:20.1		37
38	Camille Gagne				Walter Johnson	2021		20:20.3		38
39	Madeline Grainger			Wootton		2019		20:21.3		39
40	Jessica Penry				Wootton		2020		20:22.3		40
41	Aiko Abo Dominguez			B-CC		2022		20:24.3		41
42	Juliana Capizzi				B-CC		2021		20:25.0		42
43	Anna Moore				Blair		2019		20:25.9		43
44	Caroline Kennon				Walter Johnson	2020		20:26.4		44
45	Katherine Moore				Northwood	2019		20:28.4		45
46	Emma Helgeson				Wootton		2021		20:29.1		
47	Devon Derrenbacher			Gaithersburg	2022		20:30.3		47
48	Julia Johnson				Whitman		2019		20:30.5		48
49	Abbie Macher				B-CC		2019		20:31.0		49
50	Rebecca Wessel				Blair		2019		20:31.4		50
51	Christy Trang				Sherwood	2021		20:35.4		51
52	Regan Waterman				B-CC		2022		20:35.7		52
53	Marissa Branham				Northwest	2019		20:36.1		53
54	Mikayla Durr				Poolesville	2021		20:36.6		54
55	Siena Smith				Whitman		2020		20:37.3		
56	Sofia Grossman				Sherwood	2019		20:38.7		56
57	Michelle Campano			R.Montgomery	2020		20:40.7		57
58	Mira Diamond-Berman			Blair		2020		20:40.9		58
59	Melina Worthington			Blair		2020		20:41.0		59
60	Michelle Kamara				Gaithersburg	2019		20:44.0		60
61	Olivia Fan				Blair		2019		20:46.2		61
62	Sarah Williams				B-CC		2020		20:46.4		
63	Abby Haas				B-CC		2019		20:46.4		
64	Rachel Wilson				B-CC		2021		20:46.9		
65	Alexa Donaldson				Sherwood	2019		20:47.3		65
66	Caitlin Cowan				Whitman		2022		20:48.4		
67	Shanthi Ashley				Whitman		2020		20:48.4		
68	Natalie Toth				B-CC		2020		20:50.6		
69	Alyssa D'Arpa				Wootton		2020		20:56.1		

Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
=================================================
1. Wootton		87
2. Whitman		90
3. Walter Johnson	108
4. B-CC			174
5. Sherwood		188
6. Blair		222

Four Ranked Runners: Richard Montgomery
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 8 ranking published on 10/21/2017 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years plus a line showing the average finish times between those four years. Under the assumption that 2018 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.






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