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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 8 (10/21/2018). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Katie Kaneko Sherwood 2022 18:30.6 1
2 Nandini Satsangi Poolesville 2019 18:32.8 2
3 Charlotte Turesson R.Montgomery 2021 18:36.8 3
4 Jessica Trzeciak Wootton 2019 18:48.5 4
5 Emma Wolf R.Montgomery 2021 19:02.9 5
6 Madison Armonda Northwood 2019 19:04.2 6
7 Ella Gaul Walter Johnson 2021 19:04.2 7
8 Jenna Goldberg Walter Johnson 2020 19:06.0 8
9 Avery Jackson Clarksburg 2020 19:08.3 9
10 Adna Trakic Wootton 2019 19:17.5 10
11 Breanna McDonald Whitman 2019 19:18.4 11
12 Alicia Lauwers Whitman 2020 19:18.5 12
13 Chelsea Montau Seneca Valley 2021 19:21.4 13
14 Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz Damascus 2020 19:24.7 14
15 Helena Lee Northwest 2020 19:34.7 15
16 Lauren Zhou R.Montgomery 2019 19:44.3 16
17 Leah Kannan Blair 2020 19:44.3 17
18 Emmersen Weinberg Whitman 2020 19:44.4 18
19 Erin Chelf Wootton 2019 19:49.1 19
20 Victoria Shumakovich Wootton 2020 19:50.4 20
21 Elizabeth Sklaire Whitman 2020 19:52.6 21
22 Margaret Lilyestrom Quince Orchard 2019 19:55.9 22
23 Emily Gravell Sherwood 2021 19:56.9 23
24 Adrienne Bruch Walter Johnson 2019 19:57.7 24
25 Rosalind van der Does de Willebois B-CC 2020 19:58.4 25
26 Logan Rohde Poolesville 2020 20:03.7 26
27 Jessie Williams Einstein 2019 20:05.2 27
28 Paula Bathalon Whitman 2020 20:08.8 28
29 Madeleine Blaisdell Whitman 2020 20:09.1 29
30 Soraya Bernal B-CC 2021 20:12.5 30
31 Ellie Rogers Walter Johnson 2022 20:12.7 31
32 Elise Durr Gaithersburg 2019 20:12.7 32
33 Joelle Sadd Clarksburg 2021 20:15.2 33
34 Anna Baldwin Wootton 2020 20:17.4 34
35 Anjali Iyer Churchill 2020 20:17.5 35
36 Fiona Kelleher B-CC 2020 20:18.4 36
37 Lauren Anderson Churchill 2022 20:20.1 37
38 Camille Gagne Walter Johnson 2021 20:20.3 38
39 Madeline Grainger Wootton 2019 20:21.3 39
40 Jessica Penry Wootton 2020 20:22.3 40
41 Aiko Abo Dominguez B-CC 2022 20:24.3 41
42 Juliana Capizzi B-CC 2021 20:25.0 42
43 Anna Moore Blair 2019 20:25.9 43
44 Caroline Kennon Walter Johnson 2020 20:26.4 44
45 Katherine Moore Northwood 2019 20:28.4 45
46 Emma Helgeson Wootton 2021 20:29.1
47 Devon Derrenbacher Gaithersburg 2022 20:30.3 47
48 Julia Johnson Whitman 2019 20:30.5 48
49 Abbie Macher B-CC 2019 20:31.0 49
50 Rebecca Wessel Blair 2019 20:31.4 50
51 Christy Trang Sherwood 2021 20:35.4 51
52 Regan Waterman B-CC 2022 20:35.7 52
53 Marissa Branham Northwest 2019 20:36.1 53
54 Mikayla Durr Poolesville 2021 20:36.6 54
55 Siena Smith Whitman 2020 20:37.3
56 Sofia Grossman Sherwood 2019 20:38.7 56
57 Michelle Campano R.Montgomery 2020 20:40.7 57
58 Mira Diamond-Berman Blair 2020 20:40.9 58
59 Melina Worthington Blair 2020 20:41.0 59
60 Michelle Kamara Gaithersburg 2019 20:44.0 60
61 Olivia Fan Blair 2019 20:46.2 61
62 Sarah Williams B-CC 2020 20:46.4
63 Abby Haas B-CC 2019 20:46.4
64 Rachel Wilson B-CC 2021 20:46.9
65 Alexa Donaldson Sherwood 2019 20:47.3 65
66 Caitlin Cowan Whitman 2022 20:48.4
67 Shanthi Ashley Whitman 2020 20:48.4
68 Natalie Toth B-CC 2020 20:50.6
69 Alyssa D'Arpa Wootton 2020 20:56.1
Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
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1. Wootton 87
2. Whitman 90
3. Walter Johnson 108
4. B-CC 174
5. Sherwood 188
6. Blair 222
Four Ranked Runners: Richard Montgomery
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 8 ranking published on 10/21/2017 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years plus a line showing the average finish times between those four years. Under the assumption that 2018 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
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