Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/13/2019). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Garrett Suhr Richard Montgomery 2020 15:48.4 1
2 Ayu Fantaw Northwood 2020 15:59.1 2
3 Surafel Mengist Springbrook 2020 16:05.1 3
4 Tamrat Snyder Damascus 2020 16:06.0 4
5 Jacob Marks Walter Johnson 2020 16:08.9 5
6 Tsach Mackey Churchill 2021 16:15.0 6
7 Henok Eshetu Northwood 2020 16:15.2 7
8 Sean Enright Sherwood 2020 16:16.3 8
9 Timothy Boyce Northwood 2021 16:16.4 9
10 Aidan Goldenberg-Hart Richard Montgomery 2020 16:21.3 10
11 Elias Applebaum Richard Montgomery 2021 16:24.0 11
12 Lamine Fofana Northwood 2020 16:28.2 12
13 Andrew Schell Walter Johnson 2022 16:28.5 13
14 Levi Bryant Einstein 2021 16:30.0 14
15 Gabriel Worthington Blair 2020 16:31.0 15
16 Natnel Tiroro Wheaton 2020 16:31.3 16
17 Jack Anderson Sherwood 2021 16:37.1 17
18 Seth Bangser Walter Johnson 2020 16:38.6 18
19 Joel Simpson Blair 2021 16:39.2 19
20 Alex Scott Walter Johnson 2021 16:39.5 20
21 Jake McCarty B-CC 2021 16:44.4 21
22 Jackson Megary Whitman 2022 16:48.1 22
23 Sam Eig Clarksburg 2020 16:50.8 23
24 Esrom Weldegiorgis Blair 2020 16:52.9 24
25 Lamar Wilson Northwood 2022 16:54.2 25
26 Henry Kaye Richard Montgomery 2022 16:55.9 26
27 Gage Osborne Northwest 2023 16:56.1 27
28 Sam Bodmer Poolesville 2020 16:56.3 28
29 Adam Morad Walter Johnson 2021 16:56.4 29
30 Ryan Temple Blair 2020 16:57.0 30
31 Edward Lyness Blair 2022 16:58.9 31
32 Tinoda Matsatsa Northwest 2022 16:59.8 32
33 Andrew Misura Churchill 2020 17:02.3 33
34 Chris Stallard Poolesville 2021 17:02.9 34
35 Eric Gomez Springbrook 2022 17:03.0 35
36 Jose Ramirez Gaithersburg 2020 17:03.2 36
37 Sadou Sow Gaithersburg 2022 17:03.9 37
38 Henry Burd Churchill 2022 17:05.4 38
39 Joseph DeJong Franklin Wootton 2020 17:06.1 39
40 Yabsira Gugsa Paint Branch 2020 17:07.8 40
41 Lucas Corea Richard Montgomery 2022 17:07.8 41
42 Caden DeValle Damascus 2021 17:07.9 42
43 Yosef Tsigie Paint Branch 2021 17:10.0 43
44 Ian Gormley Sherwood 2020 17:10.6 44
45 Jason Wang Wootton 2022 17:11.5 45
46 Lewis Sisler B-CC 2021 17:11.8 46
47 Justin Hayes-Puttfarcken Sherwood 2021 17:11.8 47
48 Jeriel Williams Springbrook 2022 17:12.2 48
49 William Mason Richard Montgomery 2022 17:12.8 49
50 Vipulan Scot Sritharan Wootton 2020 17:12.8 50
51 Roger Arias Northwest 2021 17:13.4 51
52 James Friebert B-CC 2020 17:14.1 52
53 Gregory Garner Whitman 2021 17:14.7 53
54 Eamon Plante Sherwood 2020 17:15.7 54
55 Andualem Amado Richard Montgomery 2021 17:16.0 55
56 Samuel Wank Churchill 2021 17:16.5 56
57 Nicholas Olano Richard Montgomery 2020 17:16.7
58 Julien Higgins Churchill 2022 17:16.8 57
59 Stefan Ney Northwest 2020 17:17.2 58
60 Joey Caiazza-Blum B-CC 2020 17:18.1 59
61 Jonathan Fontek Quince Orchard 2020 17:20.3 60
62 Colin Patil Sherwood 2021 17:21.1 61
63 Brandon Lang Churchill 2022 17:22.7 62
64 Jeremy Simon B-CC 2022 17:23.1 63
65 Yarhiv Simhony Walter Johnson 2022 17:23.4 64
66 Benjamin Lesser Whitman 2020 17:23.7 65
67 Max Worley Blair 2020 17:24.8 66
68 Armaan Salckak Wootton 2022 17:25.0 67
69 Daniel Nusraty Churchill 2021 17:26.0 68
70 Sohan Ganatra Clarksburg 2020 17:26.0 69
71 Noam Tuckman Sherwood 2022 17:27.9 70
72 Nathaniel Gray Walter Johnson 2020 17:27.9 71
73 Mark Cunniff Whitman 2022 17:30.1 72
Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
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1. Northwood 55
2. Walter Johnson 85
3. Richard Montgomery 89
4. Blair 119
5. Sherwood 170
6. Churchill 190
7. B-CC 241
Four Ranked Runners: Northwest, Whitman, Wootton
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. There is no reward for running "fast times" at a course in North Carolina that no one else traveled to. Likewise, there is no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Hereford. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/13/2019 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year. Weather is also a factor, and we saw that impact last year's championship meet in a big way. More on that in a second.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last five years plus a line showing the average finish times for 2014 to 2017. It should jump out at you immediately the black dots representing finish times from 2018. You can see immediately how much slower last year was compared to the previous four years. The explanation is simple: It rained all season, it rained in the days leading up to the meet, and it rained during the meet. All other years were dry and ideal conditions. We are expected to get some rain on Wednesday but otherwise it should be another ideal weather day for the 2019 county championship. In projecting times for 2019, I threw out 2018 as an anomoly not expected to repeat.
Under the assumption that 2019 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. I did not look at the first ranked runner. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average 20th to 40th place runners from 2014 to 2017. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
Name
Comments
Wut
Tuesday, October 15, 2019 06:25:25 PM
No just no
Wut
Tuesday, October 15, 2019 06:47:08 PM
While I understand the point of trying to make the 20-40 runners typical I think it’s problematic that very few of these guys are predicted to SR or PR.
Kevin
Tuesday, October 15, 2019 07:12:17 PM
Of the 36 ranked boys who ran in perfect conditions at WakeMed Park this year, most will not PR at the county championship.
I’m number 4
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 04:08:22 PM
So I’m only going to run 4 seconds faster than I did a week ago don’t do that
Let's not jump to conclusions
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 08:28:29 PM
This year is really fast, it could still break the curve, but the curve exists for a reason
Wut
Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:09:42 PM
I can conclude that more than 2 people will break 16 and that Garrett Suhr will run faster than 15:48
