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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/13/2019). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Charlotte Turesson Richard Montgomery 2021 16:59.8 1
2 Jenna Goldberg Walter Johnson 2020 17:22.3 2
3 Ella Gaul Walter Johnson 2021 18:32.0 3
4 Katie Kaneko Sherwood 2022 18:34.2 4
5 Avery Jackson Clarksburg 2020 18:53.9 5
6 Emmersen Weinberg Whitman 2020 19:09.1 6
7 Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz Damascus 2020 19:15.3 7
8 Alicia Lauwers Whitman 2020 19:15.9 8
9 Alexa Avila Blair 2023 19:19.8 9
10 Anna Baldwin Wootton 2020 19:21.6 10
11 Madeleine Blaisdell Whitman 2020 19:25.6 11
12 Helena Lee Northwest 2020 19:32.4 12
13 Ellie Rogers Walter Johnson 2022 19:37.2 13
14 Devon Derrenbacher Gaithersburg 2022 19:39.4 14
15 Chelsea Montau Seneca Valley 2021 19:41.7 15
16 Isabelle Senfaute Walter Johnson 2022 19:44.7 16
17 Elizabeth Sklaire Whitman 2020 19:46.1 17
18 Emily Gravell Sherwood 2021 19:49.5 18
19 Rebecca Vasconez Wootton 2023 19:49.7 19
20 Elsa Benhamou B-CC 2021 19:50.6 20
21 Victoria Shumakovich Wootton 2020 19:57.6 21
22 Anaiya Bobo Northwood 2021 20:01.8 22
23 Emilie Gros-Slovinska Whitman 2023 20:01.8 23
24 Anna Bodmer Poolesville 2023 20:06.4 24
25 Christy Trang Sherwood 2021 20:09.3 25
26 Ana Bastos Whitman 2022 20:10.2 26
27 Alana Dyce-Giraud Gaithersburg 2022 20:11.9 27
28 Olivia Rosemond Northwood 2022 20:15.6 28
29 Lauren Anderson Churchill 2022 20:17.6 29
30 Noelle Hailu Northwest 2022 20:17.6 30
31 Leah Kannan Blair 2020 20:18.3 31
32 Amelia Burkhard Walter Johnson 2022 20:20.1 32
33 Mira Diamond-Berman Blair 2020 20:25.1 33
34 K.C. Ashiogwu Gaithersburg 2020 20:25.7 34
35 Kiara Chuang Whitman 2023 20:27.2 35
36 Maya Ducker Northwood 2023 20:28.6 36
37 Rachel Wilson B-CC 2021 20:28.6 37
38 Mikayla Durr Poolesville 2021 20:30.1 38
39 Soraya Bernal B-CC 2021 20:33.5 39
40 Bridget Kelly Churchill 2022 20:34.2 40
41 Julianne Yao Wootton 2023 20:36.8 41
42 Abigail Hill Churchill 2023 20:37.9 42
43 Camille Gagne Walter Johnson 2021 20:38.3 43
44 Emely Vela Damascus 2021 20:39.1 44
45 Abbey Zheng Churchill 2020 20:40.1 45
46 Lauren Kuo Churchill 2020 20:40.6 46
47 Alyssa D'Arpa Wootton 2020 20:42.0 47
48 Jennifer Li Wootton 2021 20:42.1 48
49 Arianna Langstein Gaithersburg 2022 20:42.1 49
50 Catherine Ledoux Wootton 2021 20:44.1 50
51 Fiona Kelleher B-CC 2020 20:46.0 51
52 Logan Rohde Poolesville 2020 20:46.6 52
53 Neva Jane Maldonado B-CC 2021 20:48.1 53
54 Jessica Bowen Churchill 2020 20:49.9 54
55 Caitlin Cowan Whitman 2022 20:50.6
56 Sophia Morales Walter Johnson 2021 20:50.9 55
57 Aiko Abo Dominguez B-CC 2022 20:52.1 56
58 Zara Kanold-Tso Churchill 2023 20:53.4 57
59 Tori Tracey Gaithersburg 2021 20:54.0 58
60 Cecelia Dworak Blair 2020 20:54.5 59
61 Caroline Robertson Einstein 2020 20:54.6 60
62 Anna Nardone Magruder 2021 20:57.5 61
63 Jessica Penry Wootton 2020 20:59.0
Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
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1. Whitman 65
2. Walter Johnson 66
3. Wootton 138
4. Gaithersburg 182
5. B-CC 200
6. Churchill 202
Four Ranked Runners: Blair
Three Ranked Runners: Poolesville, Sherwood, Northwood
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. There is no reward for running "fast times" at a course in North Carolina that no one else traveled to. Likewise, there is no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Hereford. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/13/2019 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year. Weather is also a factor, and we saw that impact last year's championship meet in a big way. More on that in a second.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last five years plus a line showing the average finish times for 2014 to 2017. It should jump out at you immediately the black dots representing finish times from 2018. You can see immediately how much slower last year was compared to the previous four years. The explanation is simple: It rained all season, it rained in the days leading up to the meet, and it rained during the meet. All other years were dry and ideal conditions. We are expected to get some rain on Wednesday but otherwise it should be another ideal weather day for the 2019 county championship. In projecting times for 2019, I threw out 2018 as an anomoly not expected to repeat.
Under the assumption that 2019 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. I did not look at the first ranked runner. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average 20th to 40th place runners from 2014 to 2017. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
Lastly, let's address the elephant in the room. 16:59.8? You probably think that I am trolling my readers.
If asked if I really thought we were going to see a sub-17, my answer is it doesn't matter what I think. Here is why the ranking formula spit out a 16:59. With the exception of Goldberg, no Montgomery County runner has run within 60 seconds of Charlotte Turesson this season. With the exception of Turesson and WJ's Ella Gaul, no Montgomery County runner has run within 60 seconds of Jenna Goldberg. Charlotte Turesson and Jenna Goldberg were able to amass an incredible amount of points in this ranking system this year because of their dominance over other Montgomery County ranked runners. As it sits currently, the ranking system dictates that Charlotte Turesson and Jenna Goldberg must be at least 60 seconds faster than every other ranked runner including Ella Gaul, Katie Kaneko, and Avery Jackson. That is not a controversial statement, is it? Do the projected times of the next 40 ranked runners also seem reasonable? Will the #20 runner run 19:50.6 and will the #40 runner run 20:34.2? The last five year of the Montgomery County Championship Meet suggests that would be typical. Then if the projected times of Ella Gaul (18:32.0), Katie Kaneko (18:34.2), Avery Jackson (18:53.9) and the next 40 runners seem reasonable, is it not also reasonable that Goldberg and Turesson must finish 70+ seconds faster than any of those three? If your answer is yes, then maybe it is not so unthinkable that we could see a new course record in the low 17's on Saturday. #ItsOkaytoBelieve
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