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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 8 (10/25/2021). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Grace Finnegan Richard Montgomery 2024 17:39.6 1
2 Varri Higgins Bethesda Chevy Chase 2024 17:39.9 2
3 Ella Zeigler James H. Blake 2022 18:06.2 3
4 Avery Graham Sherwood 2025 18:20.7 4
5 Alexa Avila Montgomery Blair 2023 18:22.1 5
6 Daisy Dastrup Poolesville 2024 18:34.4 6
7 Maya Gottesman Thomas S. Wootton 2023 19:08.5 7
8 Victoria Ketzler Thomas S. Wootton 2024 19:10.5 8
9 Katie Greenwald Walt Whitman 2025 19:13.6 9
10 Noor Aly Winston Churchill 2025 19:17.2 10
11 Madeleine Simmons Walter Johnson 2025 19:25.8 11
12 Ellie Rogers Walter Johnson 2022 19:28.9 12
13 Maya Bhattiprolu Winston Churchill 2022 19:34.2 13
14 Rebecca Vasconez Thomas S. Wootton 2023 19:37.3 14
15 Maya Colavito Richard Montgomery 2023 19:40.3 15
16 Isabelle Senfaute Walter Johnson 2022 19:41.4 16
17 Noelle Hailu Northwest 2022 19:51.1 17
18 Alana Dyce-Giraud Gaithersburg 2022 20:04.0 18
19 Miya Kilosky Clarksburg 2025 20:10.0 19
20 Amelia Burkhard Walter Johnson 2022 20:11.0 20
21 Maya Ducker Northwood 2023 20:15.5 21
22 Zuzana Huserova Walter Johnson 2024 20:18.5 22
23 Whitney Duhon Northwest 2025 20:24.2 23
24 Quinn Sullivan Walt Whitman 2022 20:25.0 24
25 Caroline Simons Poolesville 2022 20:25.5 25
26 Katie Kaneko Sherwood 2022 20:26.5 26
27 Ella Werkman Walt Whitman 2025 20:28.0 27
28 Olivia Rosemond Northwood 2022 20:29.1 28
29 Devon Derrenbacher Gaithersburg 2022 20:30.4 29
30 Tessa Miller John F. Kennedy 2025 20:31.0 30
31 Marijke Friedman Montgomery Blair 2022 20:31.8 31
32 Uma Plenz Walt Whitman 2022 20:34.8 32
33 Livi Sonne Walt Whitman 2023 20:42.4 33
34 Helen Catan Walt Whitman 2022 20:42.9 34
35 Emily Zanni Sherwood 2023 20:44.4 35
36 Carrie Gottesman Damascus 2024 20:46.4 36
37 Emilie Gros-Slovinska Walt Whitman 2023 20:47.0 37
38 Georgia Myers Walter Johnson 2023 20:47.0 38
39 Carolyn Hultman Walter Johnson 2024 20:48.6 39
40 Aiko Abo Dominguez Bethesda Chevy Chase 2022 20:51.6 40
41 Christa Sadd Clarksburg 2024 20:52.7 41
42 Nina Forstner Bethesda Chevy Chase 2023 20:52.9 42
43 Zara Kanold-Tso Winston Churchill 2024 20:53.8 43
44 Kiara Chuang Walt Whitman 2023 20:55.7
45 Anna Bodmer Poolesville 2023 20:58.0 44
46 Camila Cornejo Damascus 2022 20:59.8 45
47 Brooke Jones Magruder 2022 21:00.0 46
48 Sophia Lin Bethesda Chevy Chase 2023 21:02.2 47
49 Abigail Hill Winston Churchill 2023 21:02.8 48
50 Sabrina Chou Winston Churchill 2024 21:03.7 49
51 Amelia Menefee Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 21:06.0 50
52 Carolyn Catan Walt Whitman 2022 21:07.1
53 Emma Kim Richard Montgomery 2024 21:07.5 51
54 Emily Holland Walt Whitman 2025 21:11.9
55 Nima Munshi Thomas S. Wootton 2022 21:13.5 52
Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
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Schoole Projected Points
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1. Walter Johnson 81
2. Walt Whitman 125
3. Winston Churchill 163
4. Bethesda Chevy Chase 181
Four Ranked Runners: Wootton
Three Ranked Runners: Richard Montgomery, Poolesville, Sherwood
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 8 ranking published on 10/25/2021 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year. Weather can also be a major factor.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. In the past, I omitted 2018 as an outlier due to heavy rains leading up to the meet. 2018 is represented by the gray dots highest on the chart. All other years were dry with ideal conditions. This year, the five day forecast is showing more rain leading up to the meet on Saturday. I don't expect the meet to be a mudfest like 2018, but I chose to include all years in the average line including slower years like 2011 and 2018. This balances out the ultra fast years like 2017 and 2015. If the weather makes a turn for the worst on Friday into Saturday, just look at the gray dots representing 2018 to see how much a rain-soaked course impacts times. Female runners in 2018 were on average 41 seconds slower than the average line.
Under the assumption that 2021 will be an average year, meaning that this year's middle tier "top 100" varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red dot curve. The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I adjusted all times up and down until I felt that I had the best overlay with the 9-year average. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average line, paying little attention to the top ranked runners. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
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