Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/16/2022). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Noah Fisher Richard Montgomery 2023 15:45.3 1
2 Gage Osborne Northwest 2023 16:02.4 2
3 Colin Abrams Magruder 2025 16:07.1 3
4 Frederick Alfonso-Frank Montgomery Blair 2023 16:09.7 4
5 Sofiane Compaore Springbrook 2023 16:15.4 5
6 Joshua Lopez Magruder 2023 16:18.4 6
7 Colin La Winston Churchill 2023 16:19.0 7
8 Sean Cunniff Walt Whitman 2023 16:25.7 8
9 Stepan Volkov Winston Churchill 2025 16:31.2 9
10 Calix McCormick Walter Johnson 2024 16:31.5 10
11 Nathaniel Encinas Winston Churchill 2023 16:32.7 11
12 Caleb Dastrup Poolesville 2023 16:34.3 12
13 William Beane Poolesville 2023 16:39.1 13
14 Patrick Mozden Albert Einstein 2024 16:45.2 14
15 Sean Gravell Sherwood 2024 16:45.9 15
16 Connor Kohne Poolesville 2025 16:48.4 16
17 Nathaniel Swanson Winston Churchill 2025 16:49.5 17
18 Bradan Welby Winston Churchill 2023 16:49.9 18
19 Ezra Gashaw Wheaton 2023 16:51.6 19
20 Josiah Lim Damascus 2023 16:51.7 20
21 Ben Dutko Walter Johnson 2023 16:52.2 21
22 Aaron Longbrake Poolesville 2023 16:54.7 22
23 Buruk Ayalew Springbrook 2023 16:55.2 23
24 Ben Waterman Walt Whitman 2023 16:57.8 24
25 Matias Ketema Wheaton 2023 16:58.2 25
26 Ajibu Pascali Northwood 2023 16:59.3 26
27 Phillip Golotyuk Richard Montgomery 2024 17:00.4 27
28 Erich Ramos Montgomery Blair 2026 17:02.1 28
29 Alexander Risso Montgomery Blair 2024 17:04.2 29
30 Mateo Gros-Slovinska Walt Whitman 2025 17:04.7 30
31 Etana Heda Springbrook 2023 17:06.5 31
32 Griffin Lupes Albert Einstein 2025 17:07.0 32
33 Hunter Whitten Bethesda Chevy Chase 2024 17:08.7 33
34 Henry Nichols Northwood 2026 17:09.0 34
35 Nathan Belay Gaithersburg 2023 17:10.2 35
36 Jonathan Kenney Northwood 2024 17:10.5 36
37 Uriah Augare-Deal Springbrook 2025 17:11.0 37
38 Ibrahima Cisse Albert Einstein 2023 17:11.0 38
39 Andrew Bloom Richard Montgomery 2023 17:11.1 39
40 Griffin White Winston Churchill 2024 17:11.9 40
41 Jamie Singleton Sherwood 2023 17:13.0 41
42 Ayden Fritsch Sherwood 2024 17:15.3 42
43 Matt Uhl Walter Johnson 2023 17:17.0 43
44 Jake Hawks Walt Whitman 2023 17:19.0 44
45 Tyler Sauvajot Thomas S. Wootton 2023 17:19.0 45
46 Dylan Schmidt Walter Johnson 2023 17:19.9 46
47 Tillman Peters Richard Montgomery 2024 17:21.1 47
48 Kehan Bhati Quince Orchard 2023 17:21.4 48
49 Edward Sun Thomas S. Wootton 2025 17:21.7 49
50 Andrew Inman Bethesda Chevy Chase 2023 17:22.9 50
51 James Mozden Albert Einstein 2023 17:23.3 51
52 Ryan Farid Winston Churchill 2024 17:25.7 52
53 David Maya-Shelton Albert Einstein 2024 17:26.1 53
54 Daniel Chin Winston Churchill 2023 17:26.3
55 Cruz Teller Walt Whitman 2023 17:28.3 54
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Winston Churchill 62
2. Walt Whitman 171
3. Albert Einstein 201
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Poolesville, Richard Montgomery, Springbrook, Walter Johnson
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Northwood, Blair, Sherwood
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/16/2022 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year, at least, that was my thesis before the COVID-19 pandemic. The sport clearly had a lack of depth in 2021, and the effects of low participation during the pandemic are still lingering.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. With ten years of history on the course, the average line is well-defined. You can see that there have been some slow years (2018 and 2021) and some very fast years (2015 and 2017). Weather played a roll in 2018 and 2021 when the course was particularly wet. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity race in 2021. Most other years have been dry, and the athletes dictated the speed of the course.
I decided to make the assumption that we are back to "average" even though the data still points to lingering effects of low participation during the pandemic. Under the assumption that 2022 will be an average year, meaning that this year's middle tier "top 100" varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red dot curve. The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I adjusted all times up and down until I felt that I had the best overlay with the 10-year average. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average line, paying little attention to the top ranked runners. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
Name
Comments
xc luvr
Monday, October 17, 2022 12:44:35 PM
great projections but gage osborne pulling the win just wait
