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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/15/2023). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Katherine Morey Winston Churchill 2027 18:26.8 1
2 Grace Finnegan Richard Montgomery 2024 18:56.1 2
3 MacKenzie Raue Walter Johnson 2024 19:11.1 3
4 Megan Raue Walter Johnson 2025 19:27.1 4
5 Victoria Ketzler Thomas S. Wootton 2024 19:35.5 5
6 Ani Bailin Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 19:37.4 6
7 Madeleine Simmons Walter Johnson 2025 19:37.5 7
8 Emilie Creighton James H. Blake 2025 19:39.5 8
9 Sophie Harjes Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 19:45.9 9
10 Carolyn Hultman Walter Johnson 2024 19:59.4 10
11 Ella Werkman Walt Whitman 2025 20:05.3 11
12 Katie Greenwald Walt Whitman 2025 20:10.0 12
13 Roma Diak Poolesville 2025 20:10.1 13
14 Charlotte Chang Thomas S. Wootton 2026 20:11.8 14
15 Madeline Quirion Sherwood 2026 20:16.8 15
16 Mirae Dinaro Walter Johnson 2027 20:17.3 16
17 Audrey Wychulis Northwest 2026 20:18.1 17
18 Maryn Murray John F. Kennedy 2024 20:18.3 18
19 Ingrid Sullivan Montgomery Blair 2027 20:33.8 19
20 Noor Aly Winston Churchill 2025 20:43.6 20
21 Nya Stoian Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 20:46.9 21
22 Adelaide Keller Richard Montgomery 2027 20:50.0 22
23 Aubrey Green Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 20:50.8 23
24 Morgan Kirsch Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 20:52.6 24
25 Lauren Gotting Richard Montgomery 2025 20:53.6 25
26 Korinne Austin Winston Churchill 2026 20:53.7 26
27 Lilah Rich Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 20:55.2 27
28 Emilia Pardo Winston Churchill 2027 20:55.2 28
29 Ava Summerfield Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 20:55.8 29
30 Aanya Tiwari Thomas S. Wootton 2025 20:56.0 30
31 Ruby Mercer Poolesville 2026 20:56.4 31
32 Erica Millin Poolesville 2027 21:03.0 32
33 Elizabeth Finn Walter Johnson 2025 21:03.0 33
34 Lexis Owens Damascus 2025 21:05.3 34
35 Elizabeth Fogg Walter Johnson 2024 21:06.5 35
36 Danielle Krin Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 21:07.8
37 Zuzana Huserova Walter Johnson 2024 21:10.3
38 Maria Caballero Walt Whitman 2027 21:13.4 36
39 Julia Robison Montgomery Blair 2025 21:13.7 37
40 Annie Sun Thomas S. Wootton 2025 21:15.6 38
41 Sophia Barrett Walter Johnson 2026 21:19.6
42 Ava Wagner Poolesville 2024 21:20.6 39
43 Natalie Merberg Walter Johnson 2024 21:22.3
44 Caroline Zuba Winston Churchill 2024 21:25.0 40
45 Olivia Woitach Walt Whitman 2025 21:26.0 41
46 Opal Siegal Winston Churchill 2027 21:26.3 42
47 Josephine Swagart Rockville 2024 21:27.3 43
48 Katja Treadwell Walt Whitman 2026 21:30.3 44
49 Margaret Sagan Winston Churchill 2026 21:30.9 45
50 Aimee Tukey Winston Churchill 2025 21:31.4
51 Adelaide Ryan Gaithersburg 2027 21:35.9 46
52 Layla Swyndle Poolesville 2027 21:38.4 47
53 Audrey Inglese Richard Montgomery 2025 21:38.8 48
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Walter Johnson 40
2. Bethesda Chevy Chase 83
3. Winston Churchill 115
4. Walt Whitman 144
5. Poolesville 162
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Wootton, Richard Montgomery
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/15/2023 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking.
This is where I usually make the case that this will be an average year with average varsity runners: average runners will fall in line with the Montgomery County Championship course average trend line. Man, was that wrong the last couple years. In 2021, I chalked it up to wet course conditions. In 2022, conditions were fantastic, yet both the boys and girls races were statistically among the slowest in venue history. My belief is that we were not back to "average" in 2022 after COVID-19 changed the world. Now I am faced with the question: are we back to "average" in 2023?
When I lined up this year's ranking with the trend line of average performances from 2011 to 2022, it projected a personal record for almost every girl in the race by 20-to-30 seconds. It projected a personal record for almost every boy in the race by 10-to-20 seconds. The county meet is fast, but it's not that fast.
I have been putting out an article like this for a lot of years, usually following the same methodology: I lined up the ranking with the trend line of average performances on this course. After over-projecting finish times by so much the last two years, I am changing things up. Instead of following the identical methodology, I am splitting the difference between 2022 and the historical average trend line. For girls, that means 18 seconds slower than the historical average. For boys, it means 7 seconds slower than the historical average. This predicts that the strength and depth of the county's varsity runners in 2023 will be stronger than in 2021 and 2022, but not yet back to the historical average since 2011. In doing a sanity check, this puts a lot of runners who have not run fast courses yet this year right around their SR or a little faster. Runners who have run fast 5k courses may be projected to be a little slower than their SR. That is probably about right for the county course.
The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move the red trend line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I aimed to line up the 10th to 40th ranked runners so it split the difference between the 2022 trend line and the historical average trend line.
Lastly, I want to point out that the lowest point total for girls teams in the era of 25 high schools is 45 points by the 2010 Whitman girls. The lowest point total in meet history was 27 points by the Walter Johnson girls in 1999 when there were 23 high schools. The latter may not be in jeopardy, but the former is on high alert.
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