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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/15/2023). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Mateo Gros-Slovinsky Walt Whitman 2025 16:05.1 1
2 Alejandro Berrio Seneca Valley 2024 16:14.4 2
3 Nathaniel Swanson Winston Churchill 2025 16:16.5 3
4 Sean Gravell Sherwood 2024 16:25.4 4
5 Santiago Gutierrez Winston Churchill 2026 16:31.2 5
6 Erich Ramos Montgomery Blair 2026 16:33.1 6
7 Patrick Mozden Albert Einstein 2024 16:34.5 7
8 Troy Bailey Thomas S. Wootton 2024 16:36.0 8
9 Edward Sun Thomas S. Wootton 2025 16:36.3 9
10 Stepan Volkov Winston Churchill 2025 16:38.1 10
11 Rendon Yerman Thomas S. Wootton 2025 16:42.7 11
12 Alexander Risso Montgomery Blair 2024 16:48.4 12
13 Cleveland Wall Magruder 2025 16:49.7 13
14 Calix McCormick Walter Johnson 2024 16:50.2 14
15 Henry Nichols Northwood 2026 16:50.9 15
16 Ayden Fritsch Sherwood 2024 16:54.7 16
17 Connor Kohne Poolesville 2025 16:58.0 17
18 Takele Segni Northwood 2025 16:58.2 18
19 Griffin Lupes Albert Einstein 2025 17:01.7 19
20 Chris Abubakar James H. Blake 2024 17:02.1 20
21 Luke Gabrielle Thomas S. Wootton 2026 17:02.3 21
22 Arin Joshi Walt Whitman 2027 17:04.4 22
23 Ayaan Ahmad Clarksburg 2026 17:04.9 23
24 Dylan Underwood Clarksburg 2025 17:07.0 24
25 Hunter Whitten Bethesda Chevy Chase 2024 17:07.7 25
26 Cadan Felten Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 17:08.1 26
27 Kal Yewslew Thomas S. Wootton 2026 17:09.0 27
28 Jonathan Kenney Northwood 2024 17:11.4 28
29 Andrew Tucker Northwest 2024 17:12.3 29
30 Theodore Harris Sherwood 2024 17:14.0 30
31 Donovan Hicks Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:14.2 31
32 Paolo Mantasas Bethesda Chevy Chase 2024 17:15.5 32
33 Henry Schwartz Albert Einstein 2024 17:17.4 33
34 Uriah Augare-Deal Springbrook 2025 17:17.5 34
35 Michael Habib Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:18.5 35
36 Andrew Klein Damascus 2025 17:19.8 36
37 Ananya Kebede Gaithersburg 2024 17:20.3 37
38 Naasir Bakari Northwest 2025 17:20.4 38
39 Phillip Golotyuk Richard Montgomery 2024 17:21.0 39
40 Sam Buxton Albert Einstein 2025 17:21.3 40
41 Jefferson Regitz Rockville 2025 17:22.0 41
42 Jackson Schade Sherwood 2025 17:22.9 42
43 Griffin White Winston Churchill 2024 17:23.7 43
44 Semir Kemal James H. Blake 2025 17:24.8 44
45 Jonah Greszler Walt Whitman 2027 17:26.3 45
46 Nicolas Tamez Walt Whitman 2025 17:27.0 46
47 Evan Blenkinsop Montgomery Blair 2026 17:27.9 47
48 Alex Kallmes Walter Johnson 2024 17:29.3 48
49 David Maya-Shelton Albert Einstein 2024 17:30.1 49
50 Nathaniel Riker Thomas S. Wootton 2024 17:30.2 50
51 Kylen Tow Richard Montgomery 2025 17:31.4 51
52 Eli Sledge Quince Orchard 2025 17:32.3 52
53 Satchel Jelen Montgomery Blair 2026 17:32.3 53
54 Tillman Peters Richard Montgomery 2024 17:35.0 54
Teams with Five Ranked Runners: Wootton, B-CC, Einstein
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Montgomery Blair, Sherwood, Whitman, Winston Churchill
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Richard Montgomery, Northwood
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/15/2023 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking.
This is where I usually make the case that this will be an average year with average varsity runners: average runners will fall in line with the Montgomery County Championship course average trend line. Man, was that wrong the last couple years. In 2021, I chalked it up to wet course conditions. In 2022, conditions were fantastic, yet both the boys and girls races were statistically among the slowest in venue history. My belief is that we were not back to "average" in 2022 after COVID-19 changed the world. Now I am faced with the question: are we back to "average" in 2023?
When I lined up this year's ranking with the trend line of average performances from 2011 to 2022, it projected a personal record for almost every girl in the race by 20-to-30 seconds. It projected a personal record for almost every boy in the race by 10-to-20 seconds. The county meet is fast, but it's not that fast.
I have been putting out an article like this for a lot of years, usually following the same methodology: I lined up the ranking with the trend line of average performances on this course. After over-projecting finish times by so much the last two years, I am changing things up. Instead of following the identical methodology, I am splitting the difference between 2022 and the historical average trend line. For girls, that means 18 seconds slower than the historical average. For boys, it means 7 seconds slower than the historical average. This predicts that the strength and depth of the county's varsity runners in 2023 will be stronger than in 2021 and 2022, but not yet back to the historical average since 2011. In doing a sanity check, this puts a lot of runners who have not run fast courses yet this year right around their SR or a little faster. Runners who have run fast 5k courses may be projected to be a little slower than their SR. That is probably about right for the county course.
The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move the red trend line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I aimed to line up the 10th to 40th ranked runners so it split the difference between the 2022 trend line and the historical average trend line.
For the first time in a long time, I did not tally the scores for boys teams with five or more ranked runners. There are only three boys teams currently with 5+ ranked runners, but some of the teams with four ranked runners have been out-performing those with five ranked runners. This is going to be an unpredictable team scramble where a boy in the upper 17's or maybe even 18's could decide the outcome.
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