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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/13/2024). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Girls Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time
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1 Katherine Morey Winston Churchill 2027 18:07.1
2 Ani Bailin Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 18:34.9
3 Emma Colavito Richard Montgomery 2025 18:40.5
4 Megan Raue Walter Johnson 2025 19:03.4
5 Madeline Quirion Sherwood 2026 19:05.2
6 Katie Greenwald Walt Whitman 2025 19:10.6
7 Mirae Denaro Walter Johnson 2027 19:11.1
8 Julia Robison Montgomery Blair 2025 19:20.4
9 Roma Diak Poolesville 2025 19:21.5
10 Ella Werkman Walt Whitman 2025 19:24.1
11 Emilie Creighton James H. Blake 2025 19:24.4
12 Nya Stoian Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 19:26.6
13 Celestine Delannay Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 19:35.0
14 Audrey Wychulis Northwest 2026 19:35.8
15 Charlotte Chang Thomas S. Wootton 2026 19:37.1
16 Whitney Duhon Northwest 2025 19:38.4
17 Madeline Kelly Clarksburg 2027 19:45.1
18 Sophie Harjes Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 19:48.8
19 Korinne Austin Winston Churchill 2026 19:57.7
20 Madeleine Simmons Walter Johnson 2025 20:07.5
21 Zia Elam Poolesville 2025 20:31.1
22 Adelaide Keller Richard Montgomery 2027 20:32.4
23 Nadia Lund Winston Churchill 2028 20:33.1
24 Margaret Sagan Winston Churchill 2026 20:35.0
25 Lilah Rich Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 20:35.6
26 Lucy Holland Montgomery Blair 2026 20:37.5
27 Natalie McCarty Walter Johnson 2028 20:42.5
28 Adelaide Ryan Gaithersburg 2027 20:50.3
29 Aubrey Green Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 20:52.0
30 Gabriella Janss Damascus 2025 20:52.0
31 Noor Aly Winston Churchill 2025 20:52.0
32 Alexia Ladstaetter Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 20:54.9
33 Sifen Tusse James H. Blake 2026 21:00.7
34 Annie Sun Thomas S. Wootton 2025 21:01.5
35 Mariana Song Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 21:03.8
36 Marcela Mason-Rodriguez Montgomery Blair 2027 21:04.4
37 Emma Bergfalk Montgomery Blair 2025 21:06.4
38 Ruby Mercer Poolesville 2026 21:06.5
39 Elizabeth Finn Walter Johnson 2025 21:08.0
40 Aimee Tukey Winston Churchill 2025 21:10.9
41 Ann Linke Walter Johnson 2026 21:12.2
42 Annabel Kotek Walter Johnson 2026 21:12.5
43 Ariana Arturo Rockville 2026 21:15.4
44 Shreya Modur Northwest 2026 21:17.1
45 Lauren Gotting Richard Montgomery 2025 21:19.1
46 Emilia Pardo Winston Churchill 2027 21:19.3
47 Emily Wychulis Northwest 2028 21:19.4
48 Clara Dixon Albert Einstein 2027 21:20.5
49 Erica Millin Poolesville 2027 21:21.0
50 Bonita Eckford Walt Whitman 2028 21:24.8
51 Anna McCrae Poolesville 2026 21:26.1
52 Lexis Owens Damascus 2025 21:26.8
53 Emerson Bernstein Winston Churchill 2025 21:27.8
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Bethesda Chevy Chase 70
2. Walter Johnson 96
3. Winston Churchill 98
4. Poolesville 165
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Blair, Northwest
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Richard Montgomery, Whitman
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula is a system of point stealing. Points are stolen by finishing closer to or further ahead of other ranked runners compared to what is "expected." It is an interesting alternative to stagnant rankings of season best 5k times. Every race counts. Every race is an opportunity to perform better than expected relative to other ranked runners.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/13/2024 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. With twelve years of history on the course, the average line is well-defined. You can see that there have been some slow years (2018, 2021, 2022, 2023) and some very fast years (2015 and 2017). Weather played a roll in 2018 and 2021 when the course was particularly wet. Most other years have been dry, and the athletes dictated the speed of the course. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity race since 2021.
Last year, I made an adjustment to the projections for the reason that the sport was suffering a lack of depth since the pandemic. That proved to be wise. With the boys this year, I chose to go back to calling this an average year. With the girls, a large gap in the middle of the ranking made that difficult.
This is usually where I preach that in an average year, I aim to line up the #20 to #40 runners with the historical average trend line. The girls ranking has an unusual quirk this year. The ranking shows a 42 second spread between the #18 and #21 ranked runners. It is a 24 second gap between the #20 and #21 runners I could not line up the #20 to #40 ranked runners with the historical average line and still have reasonable projections for the top 20. When I lined up the #21-40 with the historical average, the top 20 runners projected significantly below the course average line. That hypothetical case made the projections unrealistically fast. I did not want to go there. Instead, I aimed to line up the #1 through #20 close to the historic average line while every runner #21 through #54 is above the average line. That choice is in line with my assertion that the county's overall depth still has not recovered to pre-Pandemic levels. The projections you see here for 2024 are still faster than the actual performances from 2021, 2022, and 2023.
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