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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/13/2024). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Boys Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time
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1 Nathaniel Swanson Winston Churchill 2025 15:58.9
2 Edward Sun Thomas S. Wootton 2025 16:05.0
3 Mateo Gros-Slovinsky Walt Whitman 2025 16:06.5
4 Henry Nichols Northwood 2026 16:11.0
5 Rendon Yerman Thomas S. Wootton 2025 16:19.0
6 Semir Kemal James H. Blake 2025 16:21.3
7 Santiago Gutierrez Winston Churchill 2026 16:23.5
8 Ayaan Ahmad Clarksburg 2026 16:25.2
9 Griffin Lupes Albert Einstein 2025 16:27.6
10 Cadan Felten Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 16:28.6
11 Connor Kohne Poolesville 2025 16:32.2
12 Nathan Downie Thomas S. Wootton 2026 16:37.4
13 Luke Gabrielle Thomas S. Wootton 2026 16:38.0
14 Zachary Oh James H. Blake 2027 16:38.7
15 Naasir Bakari Northwest 2025 16:44.2
16 Erich Ramos Montgomery Blair 2026 16:45.8
17 Stepan Volkov Winston Churchill 2025 16:47.2
18 Donovan Hicks Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 16:47.5
19 Jefferson Regitz Rockville 2025 16:49.6
20 Sam Buxton Albert Einstein 2025 16:51.7
21 Adam Kronenberg Northwest 2025 16:54.3
22 Dimitrios Rementelas Sherwood 2028 16:55.4
23 Ethan Dimmerling Poolesville 2027 16:59.1
24 Ian Fisher Northwood 2028 17:00.1
25 Daniel Skendaj Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:00.4
26 Evan Blenkinsop Montgomery Blair 2026 17:00.9
27 Grant Levens Walter Johnson 2026 17:04.4
28 Ellis Eppard Thomas S. Wootton 2025 17:04.6
29 Peter Lanpher Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:05.5
30 Benjamin Ploeger Wheaton 2026 17:05.5
31 Satchel Jelen Montgomery Blair 2026 17:08.0
32 Luke Burkes Albert Einstein 2026 17:08.1
33 John Taylor Montgomery Blair 2026 17:08.6
34 Jasper Goldstein Walter Johnson 2025 17:09.5
35 Carter Zembrzuski Richard Montgomery 2025 17:11.8
36 Arin Joshi Walt Whitman 2027 17:12.7
37 Jonah Greszler Walt Whitman 2027 17:14.8
38 Jacob Martin Paint Branch 2025 17:15.1
39 Garrett Simons Poolesville 2026 17:16.0
40 Daniel McNelis Winston Churchill 2026 17:16.0
41 Maxwell Wolf Walt Whitman 2026 17:16.6
42 Ioannis Rementelas Sherwood 2028 17:16.8
43 Dylan Underwood Clarksburg 2025 17:17.8
44 Jonah Daniel Walter Johnson 2025 17:18.0
45 Cleveland Wall Magruder 2025 17:18.0
46 Ari Held Northwood 2027 17:18.2
47 Olin Hogentogler Sherwood 2025 17:18.4
48 Stuart Mallon Montgomery Blair 2026 17:20.3
49 Tyler Gottesman Damascus 2025 17:20.6
50 Andrew Klein Damascus 2025 17:21.1
51 Tobin Connelly Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:21.2
52 Richard Harris Northwest 2027 17:21.3
53 Zack Pritts Walt Whitman 2026 17:23.0
54 Cherian Mampilly Bethesda Chevy Chase 2025 17:23.0
55 Kylen Tow Richard Montgomery 2025 17:23.0
56 Luca Servis Rockville 2026 17:23.0
57 Jack Kreindler Winston Churchill 2026 17:23.1
58 Alex Zirkelbach Sherwood 2028 17:23.5
59 Braeden Taylor Rockville 2027 17:23.6
60 Benjamin Burckle Montgomery Blair 2026 17:23.9
61 Nicolas Tamez Walt Whitman 2025 17:27.0
62 Oliver Sykora Sherwood 2025 17:28.0
63 Caleb Charmatz Sherwood 2027 17:29.0
64 Keaton Trouteaud Poolesville 2026 17:29.0
65 Alexander Hofmann Sherwood 2025 17:29.0
66 Krish Sood Winston Churchill 2028 17:31.5
67 Aiden Liu Montgomery Blair 2026 17:33.7
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Thomas S. Wootton 60
2. Winston Churchill 122
3. Bethesda Chevy Chase 133
4. Montgomery Blair 154
5. Walt Whitman 170
6. Sherwood 231
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Poolesville
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Einstein, Northwest, Northwood, Rockville, Walter Johnson
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula is a system of point stealing. Points are stolen by finishing closer to or further ahead of other ranked runners compared to what is "expected." It is an interesting alternative to stagnant rankings of season best 5k times. Every race counts. Every race is an opportunity to perform better than expected relative to other ranked runners.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/13/2024 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. With twelve years of history on the course, the average line is well-defined. You can see that there have been some slow years (2018, 2021, 2022, 2023) and some very fast years (2015 and 2017). Weather played a roll in 2018 and 2021 when the course was particularly wet. Most other years have been dry, and the athletes dictated the speed of the course. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity race since 2021.
Last year, I made an adjustment to the projections for the reason that the sport was suffering a lack of depth since the pandemic. That proved to be wise, but I decided to make the assumption this year that we are back to "average" even though the data still points to lingering effects of low participation during the pandemic. Under the assumption that 2024 will be an average year, meaning that this year's middle tier "top 100" varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the black AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red dot curve. The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I adjusted all times until I felt that I had the best overlay with the 12-year average. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average line, paying little attention to the top ranked runners. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
A quirk in the season calendar meant almost no ranked runners raced in the week before the Montgomery County Championship Meet (last week). It triggered the "Inactivity Rule" for several runners including three of the top five ranked boys. The inactivity rule states that runners lose fifteen points after THREE weeks inactive. After a fourth week inactive, athletes are removed from the ranking. I wanted to point that out since readers at home may not understand the drop of certain runners last week. Obviously, there is nothing scientific that says not racing for three weeks detracts X-number of seconds in a 5k. The rule is in place because three weeks of inactivity feels like an eternity in the ~11 week high school season. The ranking system needs check-ups and consistent runner comparisons. Unfortunately, there were almost no opportunities to race last week which has never been the case the week before the county championship meet. Missed races by top athletes certainly adds unpredictability to the quest for the individual and team titles this year.
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