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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/12/2025). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Boys Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Pt
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1 Dimitrios Rementelas Sherwood 2028 16:03.2 1
2 Nathan Downie Thomas S. Wootton 2026 16:08.2 2
3 Santiago Gutierrez Winston Churchill 2026 16:12.1 3
4 Ayaan Ahmad Clarksburg 2026 16:15.8 4
5 Henry Nichols Northwood 2026 16:17.0 5
6 Zachary Oh James H. Blake 2027 16:22.1 6
7 Ioannis Rementelas Sherwood 2028 16:22.7 7
8 Michael Habib Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 16:22.8 8
9 Peter Lanpher Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 16:23.0 9
10 Patricio Pardo Winston Churchill 2029 16:24.8 10
11 Daniel Skendaj Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 16:32.8 11
12 Zack Pritts Walt Whitman 2026 16:34.3 12
13 Jonah Greszler Walt Whitman 2027 16:35.5 13
14 Ian Fisher Northwood 2028 16:37.6 14
15 Benjamin Burckle Montgomery Blair 2026 16:39.1 15
16 Tobin Connelly Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 16:40.9 16
17 Bereket Eshetu Northwood 2028 16:40.9 17
18 Alex Von Heideken Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 16:45.5 18
19 Benjamin Ploeger Wheaton 2026 16:46.0 19
20 Evan Blenkinsop Montgomery Blair 2026 16:47.8 20
21 Luke Gabrielle Thomas S. Wootton 2026 16:48.4 21
22 Brandon Kneisler Thomas S. Wootton 2028 16:51.2 22
23 John Taylor Montgomery Blair 2026 16:53.5 23
24 Erich Ramos Montgomery Blair 2026 16:54.9 24
25 Alec Mostofi Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 16:59.4 25
26 Garrett Simons Poolesville 2026 17:03.9 26
27 Avery Smith Sherwood 2028 17:05.2 27
28 Leonardo Bracciale Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 17:06.5 28
29 Donovan Hicks Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:07.1
30 Grant Levens Walter Johnson 2026 17:07.5 29
31 Alex Zirkelbach Sherwood 2028 17:10.2 30
32 Darly Philogene Springbrook 2027 17:10.4 31
33 Aiden Liu Montgomery Blair 2026 17:10.9 32
34 Jaylen Shah Winston Churchill 2028 17:11.1 33
35 Lev Brener Wheaton 2028 17:12.1 34
36 Ethan Dimmerling Poolesville 2027 17:12.4 35
37 Zane Peterson Albert Einstein 2026 17:14.6 36
38 Balin Savage Montgomery Blair 2027 17:14.7 37
39 Maxwell Wolf Walt Whitman 2026 17:15.7 38
40 Samuel Zhang Winston Churchill 2027 17:16.0 39
41 Michael Armonda Wheaton 2026 17:16.3 40
42 Satchel Jelen Montgomery Blair 2026 17:17.4 41
43 Keaton Trouteaud Poolesville 2026 17:19.0 42
44 Nathaniel Kaneshige Northwest 2027 17:22.5 43
45 William Del Sole Wheaton 2027 17:22.5 44
46 Evan Huang Richard Montgomery 2027 17:25.8 45
47 Saaim Hamdani Seneca Valley 2026 17:26.6 46
48 Stuart Mallon Montgomery Blair 2026 17:26.8
49 Krish Sood Winston Churchill 2028 17:27.0 47
50 Alex Daniels Poolesville 2026 17:27.0 48
51 Braeden Taylor Rockville 2027 17:27.7 49
52 Inder Haugen Richard Montgomery 2027 17:29.1 50
53 Caleb Charmatz Sherwood 2027 17:29.2 51
54 Cameron Wong Rockville 2026 17:30.0 52
55 Ethan Stearns Walt Whitman 2026 17:30.0 53
56 Luca Servis Rockville 2026 17:31.2 54
57 Richard Harris Northwest 2027 17:31.5 55
58 Dominic Billington Winston Churchill 2028 17:33.2 56
59 Emiliano Dracoulis Vargas Walt Whitman 2029 17:34.1 57
60 Atreyu Kaine Northwest 2029 17:34.8 58
61 Oliver Homan Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 17:35.4
62 James Edmonds-Moore Albert Einstein 2028 17:35.4 59
63 Cruz Carbonell Damascus 2029 17:36.0 60
64 Samuel Johnson Walt Whitman 2028 17:37.8 61
65 Evan Hodge Quince Orchard 2027 17:38.8 62
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Bethesda Chevy Chase 62
2. Montgomery Blair 114
3. Sherwood 116
4. Winston Churchill 132
5. Walt Whitman 173
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Poolesville, Wheaton
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Northwest, Northwood, Rockville, Wootton
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula is a system of point stealing. Points are stolen by finishing closer to or further ahead of other ranked runners compared to what is "expected." It is an interesting alternative to stagnant rankings of season best 5k times. Every race counts. Every race is an opportunity to perform better than expected relative to other ranked runners.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/12/2025 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. With twelve years of history on the course, the average line is well-defined. You can see that there have been some slow years (2018, 2021, 2022, 2023) and some very fast years (2015 and 2017). Weather played a roll in 2018 and 2021 when the course was particularly wet. Most other years have been dry, and the athletes dictated the speed of the course. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity race since 2021.
Last year, I decided to make the assumption that the boys we are back to "average." This proved correct. The boys of 2024 were generally in line or a few seconds faster than the historical average trendline. Under the assumption that 2025 will be an average year, meaning that this year's middle tier "top 100" varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the black AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red dot curve. The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I adjusted all times until I felt that I had the best overlay with the 13-year average. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average line, paying little attention to the top ranked runners. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
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