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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/12/2025). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Girls Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Pt
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1 Eleanor Finnegan Thomas S. Wootton 2029 18:38.5 1
2 Madeline Quirion Sherwood 2026 18:42.0 2
3 Audrey Wychulis Northwest 2026 19:10.2 3
4 Olivia Donmoyer Quince Orchard 2026 19:26.0 4
5 Alexia Ladstaetter Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 19:37.7 5
6 Madeline Kelly Clarksburg 2027 19:38.1 6
7 Nya Stoian Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 19:40.2 7
8 Charlotte Chang Thomas S. Wootton 2026 19:53.9 8
9 Korinne Austin Winston Churchill 2026 20:03.7 9
10 Emily Wychulis Northwest 2028 20:21.1 10
11 Margaret Sagan Winston Churchill 2026 20:28.1 11
12 Divya Mudunuri Northwest 2028 20:34.1 12
13 Adelaide Keller Richard Montgomery 2027 20:34.9 13
14 Ava Summerfield Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 20:39.7 14
15 Lilah Rich Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 20:41.4 15
16 Adelaide Ryan Gaithersburg 2027 20:41.5 16
17 Kinjal Kapoor Walt Whitman 2028 20:42.1 17
18 Mariana Song Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 20:42.7 18
19 Marcela Mason-Rodriguez Montgomery Blair 2027 20:51.6 19
20 Nadia Lund Winston Churchill 2028 20:53.2 20
21 Anna McCrae Poolesville 2026 20:55.6 21
22 Natalie McCarty Walter Johnson 2028 20:56.0 22
23 Allie Hage Bethesda Chevy Chase 2029 20:56.3 23
24 Olivia Dickerson Thomas S. Wootton 2029 20:58.6 24
25 Emilia Pardo Winston Churchill 2027 20:59.9 25
26 Noemi Keller Richard Montgomery 2029 21:01.1 26
27 Samantha Polcawich Magruder 2027 21:04.9 27
28 Ariana Arturo Rockville 2026 21:06.8 28
29 Sifen Tusse James H. Blake 2026 21:10.4 29
30 Ashley Polcawich Magruder 2027 21:10.8 30
31 Emily Cornelius Walt Whitman 2029 21:13.2 31
32 Bonita Eckford Walt Whitman 2028 21:13.8 32
33 Aubrey Green Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 21:17.6 33
34 Era Ciobanu Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 21:18.6
35 Maya Grossman Richard Montgomery 2027 21:21.9 34
36 Eliana Dolven-Miller Bethesda Chevy Chase 2026 21:23.6
37 Leela Joshi Albert Einstein 2027 21:30.1 35
38 Shreya Modur Northwest 2026 21:31.0 36
39 Marguerite Mauldin Montgomery Blair 2029 21:33.1 37
40 Lindsay Gallagher Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 21:33.4
41 Samantha Park Winston Churchill 2026 21:33.5 38
42 Lucine Kanderian Northwest 2028 21:34.2 39
43 Bhavya Chidambaranatha Poolesville 2027 21:34.5 40
44 Morgan Braniff Thomas S. Wootton 2029 21:35.5 41
45 Ruby Mercer Poolesville 2026 21:36.0 42
46 Audrey Blake Walter Johnson 2026 21:41.3 43
47 Paige Henry Rockville 2026 21:42.5 44
48 Lucy Holland Montgomery Blair 2026 21:42.9 45
49 Sadie Rice Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 21:43.1
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Bethesda Chevy Chase 59
2. Northwest 100
3. Winston Churchill 103
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Wootton
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Richard Montgomery, Whitman, Blair, Poolesville
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula is a system of point stealing. Points are stolen by finishing closer to or further ahead of other ranked runners compared to what is "expected." It is an interesting alternative to stagnant rankings of season best 5k times. Every race counts. Every race is an opportunity to perform better than expected relative to other ranked runners.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/12/2025 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity girls race since 2021. The black trend line is the average performance of runners from 2021 to 2024. Four of the "slowest" races in course history have been post-pandemic. This is not a knock of the kids working hard every day at the great sport of cross country. I just think the pandemic hit the reset button on the insane depth the county had built up over decades.
While the boys were a bit faster than the all-time course average last year, the girls were closer to the 2021-2024 average last year. Instead of calling 2025 an average year compared to the all-time course average, I have projected this year's girls to run in-line with the 2021-2024 average. I aimed to line up this years ranking with the 2021-2024 average trend line, paying particular attention to places 20 to 40.
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