Boys Predictions
Churchill over Northwest
Churchill over Quince Orchard
Northwest over Quince Orchard
Sherwood over Gaithersburg
Damascus over Wootton
Damascus over Magruder
Wootton over Magruder
Blair over Clarksburg
Einstein over Springbrook
Einstein over Poolesville
Springbrook over Poolesville
Northwood over Rockville
Wheaton over Seneca Valley
Wheaton over Kennedy
Wheaton over Watkins Mill
Seneca Valley over Kennedy
Seneca Valley over Watkins Mill
Kennedy over Watkins Mill
Girls Predictions
Northwest over Churchill
Churchill over Quince Orchard
Northwest over Quince Orchard
Sherwood over Gaithersburg
Damascus over Wootton
Damascus over Magruder
Wootton over Magruder
Blair over Clarksburg
Einstein over Springbrook
Einstein over Poolesville
Poolesville over Springbrook
Rockville over Northwood
Seneca Valley over Wheaton
Kennedy over Wheaton
Watkins Mill over Wheaton
Seneca Valley over Kennedy
Seneca Valley over Watkins Mill
Kennedy over Watkins Mill
Division I
Northwest, Quince Orchard, and Churchill all squared off in a race consisting of 306 girls last Saturday at the Paul Short Run. The result? Northwest was tenth, Quince Orchard was eleventh just 18 points behind, and Churchill was sixteenth, 31 points behind QO. Remove 280 runners from that race and the results between Northwest and QO are even closer - NW 28, QO 29. I don't suspect it will be quite that close since a few Northwest runners seem to have underperformed, and with the division on the line, this one is for all the marbles.
The Churchill girls still have a shot at the division title if they beat Northwest and QO, but after Paul Short, Oatlands, and Magruder Invitationals, Northwest has proven that they are clearly a step ahead of Churchill this year. But back to the Paul Short dual meet scoring... Churchill would have beaten QO 27 to 28. Why? QO has by far the strongest #3 runner of the three teams, which gave them a big boost. Head to head, that strong # 3 will not help as much, but home field advantage could keep QO on top. I still give the nod to Churchill over QO in a close one based on their strong top two.
The Churchill boys bested Northwest and QO at Paul Short Run where Churchill was 14th, Northwest was 16th, and QO was 28th. This tri meet should again come down to Churchill and Northwest, but I wouldn't expect the results to be dramatically different. QO is still too young to be competitive while Northwest is just not clicking yet. This one is Churchill's to lose, though the divisional title was already lost to WJ two weeks ago.
Division II
You better believe that those Wootton girls have all of their energy bottled up inside dying to get out after the Bull Run Invitational got pushed back two weeks. They haven't faced a strong opponent since the Magruder Invitational three and a half weeks ago. All of that training with very little racing should at least caution the Damascus girls, who have done nothing but race and win all season long. The fact that this race will take place on a very difficult course at Lake Needwood also works in favor of Wootton, who hosts meets on their own difficult home course. All things considered, everything points to a fourth and fifth consecutive dual met win for Damascus, thanks to their well-defined and tightly packed top five.
Sherwood boys are going to wrap up the divisional title at home against Gaithersburg.
Recommendation: Let Abby Spitler run the boys race.
Division III
What makes the Blair vs. Clarksburg matchup historic? The Clarksburg girls cross country team has never lost a dual meet in the history of their school! All good things must come to an end. The Blair girls have been running well as a unit all season and Clarksburg, while always tough in dual meets, especially at home, will not have the depth to match up.
Likewise, the Blair boys should also defeat Clarksburg, sealing a Division III sweep and becoming the only school to win the boys and girls division crowns this season.
Division IV
The Northwood boys have been rolling over their opponents in dual meets all season, but Rockville's record of 2-3 is deceiving. Northwood will be shooting for a top-3 sweep, but if Rockville's #1 Nathan Austin breaks them up, Rockville could sting them with their depth. Northwood, however, does not need to beat Rockville to win the division.
Another D-IV quad meet will feature Wheaton, Kennedy, Seneca Valley, and Watkins Mill on the regional course at Watkins Mill. Such a meet in the past may have featured a grand total of six girls, but this year, every team in the county except Wheaton has fielded full teams, and even Wheaton is rumored to have a fifth girl somewhere maybe possibly. Standing high above the other D-IV teams is the squad from Seneca Valley which has seven girls under 26 minutes this season.
The strongest runners in the boys race will come from Watkins Mill and Kennedy, but the deepest teams will be Wheaton and Seneca Valley. I predict Wheaton should come out on top after a strong showing against Rockville two weeks ago, but Seneca Valley can earn second place in the division by winning all three match ups.
