Last year I did a little analysis of the Watkins Mill course by comparing times at the 2006 state championship at Hereford to times at the 4A West regional at Watkins Mill. I found that girls ran an average of 38 seconds slower at Hereford than Watkins Mill while boys ran 33 seconds slower at Hereford than Watkins Mill.

If there is any regional course in the state that comes anywhere close to the difficulty of Hereford, it is Watkins Mill. After all, up until this year, like the Hereford course, no boy had ever broken 16 minutes at Watkins Mill (granted it is a full 5k course and it has changed somewhat since it was regularly used for championship meets in the 1990's).

The Watkins Mill course features a very fast start that is almost completely flat. The second and third miles consist of several long steep uphills and downhills combined with some rough footing and nasty sharp turns. The final half mile is merciful towards the runners. After ascending the final hill past the football field, the drive to the finish is mostly flat. So while most runners across Maryland are almost guaranteed to run slower at the state championship by a minute or more, runners from the 3A West and 4A West regions actually stand a chance of running a faster time from the region meet to the state meet due to the difficulty of the Watkins Mill course.

So just how did the times compare between the two courses in 2008?

31.5% of the boys who ran both courses in 2008 managed faster times at Hereford. 32.9% of girls who ran both courses ran faster at Hereford. With over two-thirds of runners running slower at Hereford, Hereford is no doubt still the tougher course, but times were really not too far off. On average, boys who ran both courses were within ten seconds of their regional time at the state meet. Girls were within twenty seconds of their regional time at the state meet. I have not analyzed how other regional courses compare to Hereford, but a quick glance at regional results across the state shows most athletes run over a minute slower at Hereford than they did at their regional meet.

Interestingly enough, the boys in the 3A West race averaged just three seconds slower at Hereford than Watkins Mill. Considering the course was very similar to the 4A West boys race which took place less than an hour before it, one might conclude that the 3A West race was just slower than the 3A state meet by comparison.

The analysis can be further broken down by team. This could be interpreted as which teams were the most prepared for the ultimate test on the hardest course in the state. Which teams were able to collectively avoid intimidation and get the job done to the best of their ability? The data would certainly show that Paint Branch and Frederick boys along with Tuscarora girls mastered this task this year by averaging faster times at Hereford than Watkins Mill.

A lot of factors can come into play from race to race, but the 31.5% of boys and 32.9% of girls who ran faster at Hereford showed the most focus of any other runners, performing to the best of their ability level in the most important meet.

				# of seconds slower at Hereford
4A Boys:				14.8
3A Boys:				3.4
All Boys:				9.5
4A Girls:				22.2
3A Girls:				16.1
All Girls:				19.6
4A BOYS TEAMS:				# of seconds slower at Hereford
Walter Johnson				10.6
Sherwood				12.2
Gaithersburg				13.0
Churchill				13.9
Northwest				18.0
Whitman				18.3
Magruder				24.7
3A BOYS TEAMS:				# of seconds slower at Hereford
Paint Branch				-13.3
Frederick				-3.7
Damascus				3.6
Albert Einstein				4.9
Bethesda-Chevy Chase				6.6
Urbana				17.1
4A GIRLS TEAMS:				# of seconds slower at Hereford
Walter Johnson				7.8
Walt Whitman				13.9
Winston Churchill				15.4
Northwest				16.5
Thomas S Wootton				23.7
Quince Orchard				36.3
Sherwood				38.1
3A GIRLS TEAMS:				# of seconds slower at Hereford
Tuscarora				-0.7
Damascus				5.3
Bethesda-Chevy Chase				11.3
Albert Einstein				27.9
Urbana				40.3
Most Improved Boys:				School		# of seconds FASTER at Hereford
Patrick Kind		3A		Paint Branch		50
Josh Allwardt		3A		Urbana		36
Michael Kunz		3A		Paint Branch		30
Matt Davey-Karlson		3A		Bethesda-Chevy Chase		26
Ziv Dreyfuss		3A		Albert Einstein		19
Nikolas Theiss		3A		Bethesda-Chevy Chase		17
Jamie Long		3A		Frederick		17
Reed Wilkinson		3A		Frederick		16
Jimmy Miller		3A		Urbana		16
Solomon Haile		4A		Sherwood		14
Thomas Arias		3A		Damascus		13
Fernando Herrera		3A		Paint Branch		12
Jeffrey Keane		3A		Paint Branch		12
Rutvij Pandya		4A		Montgomery Blair		11
Matt Barretto		3A		Frederick		11
Antonio Palmer		4A		Gaithersburg		10
Joey Schaefer		4A		Magruder		10
Benjamin Rivers		3A		Albert Einstein		8
Andrew Palmer		4A		Whitman		7
Drew Katz		4A		Whitman		7
Jonathan Constantinides		3A		Damascus		7
Tarek Elhage		4A		Churchill		6
Cecil Jonas		3A		Damascus		6
Alex Hevey		3A		Albert Einstein		4
Kyle Cooper		3A		Frederick		4
Joe Johnson		4A		Gaithersburg		3
Brandt Silver-Korn		4A		Whitman		2
Eliot Gerson		3A		Bethesda-Chevy Chase		2
Roni Teich		4A		Walter Johnson		1
Conor Spaulding		4A		Quince Orchard		0
Andrew Ceruzzi		3A		Albert Einstein		0
Most Improved Girls:				School		# of seconds FASTER at Hereford
Sarah Headland		3A		Tuscarora		90
Addie Tousley		3A		Bethesda-Chevy Chase		41
Johna Applestein		4A		Walter Johnson		21
Mary Claire Erskine		3A		Albert Einstein		15
Alexandra Phillips		4A		Walt Whitman		14
Karly Najaka		3A		Damascus		13
Caroline Chevat		4A		Winston Churchill		12
Joy Johnstone		3A		Tuscarora		12
Kate Lueba		3A		Bethesda-Chevy Chase		11
Chelsey McMinn		3A		Damascus		8
Sarah Sekscienski		4A		Northwest		6
Maria Moersen		4A		Walter Johnson		5
Kyrsten Staab		3A		Tuscarora		5
Andi Sunshine		4A		Walt Whitman		3
Amy Levine		4A		Thomas S Wootton		2
Phoebe Palmer		4A		Winston Churchill		2
Emily McIlvried		3A		Damascus		2
Kelly Ramsburg		3A		Urbana		2
Abby Peller		4A		Thomas S Wootton		1
Jenna Willett		4A		Walter Johnson		1
Maryam Fikri		4A		Winston Churchill		1
Anna Bosse		4A		Walter Johnson		0