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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/19/2015). Scroll to the bottom to
read how the projected times were determined.
Boys County Championship 5k Projections
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Rank Name School Year Projected Time
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1 Rohann Asfaw Richard Montgomery 2017 15:47.2
2 Michael Abebe Northwood 2016 16:03.8
3 Liam Walsh Quince Orchard 2016 16:05.0
4 Branson Oduor Northwest 2016 16:07.5
5 Colin SyBing Wootton 2016 16:12.1
6 Joachim El-Masry Richard Montgomery 2018 16:21.4
7 Cliff Tilley Wootton 2016 16:24.1
8 Alejandro Arias Einstein 2016 16:24.1
9 Lucas Heinzerling B-CC 2016 16:24.4
10 James Newport Blake 2016 16:29.6
11 Dylan Kannapell B-CC 2016 16:31.8
12 Ben Gersch Whitman 2016 16:31.9
13 Jacob Rushkoff Wootton 2016 16:33.0
14 Adam Sarsony Rockville 2016 16:34.4
15 Komlan Attiogbe Northwest 2017 16:37.0
16 Carter May Walter Johnson 2016 16:38.3
17 Mitchell Welter Churchill 2016 16:39.0
18 Jason Shefferman Churchill 2016 16:41.7
19 Simeon Mussie Einstein 2018 16:44.8
20 Adam Nakasaka B-CC 2018 16:45.7
21 John Riker Wootton 2019 16:48.6
22 Jacob Grant Churchill 2016 16:49.3
23 Daniel Singer Walter Johnson 2016 16:53.1
24 Elton Quansah Northwest 2017 16:53.4
25 Colin Loiacono Sherwood 2016 16:54.1
26 Chase Osborne Northwest 2018 16:54.5
27 Tyler Wilson Einstein 2018 16:55.1
28 Christian McCann Quince Orchard 2016 16:57.1
29 Jose Infante-Rosale Northwest 2017 16:57.7
30 Michael Hughes Churchill 2016 16:58.7
31 Josh Fry B-CC 2018 17:01.6
32 Jason Scott Wheaton 2017 17:02.2
33 Rory O'Neil Northwest 2017 17:02.7
34 Benjamin Shapiro Wootton 2017 17:03.1
35 Patrick Winter Walter Johnson 2016 17:03.2
36 Dominic Massimino Blair 2017 17:04.1
37 Alexander Mangiafico Blair 2016 17:04.4
38 Saahr Edouard Walter Johnson 2018 17:05.9
39 Emanuel Villanueva Gaithersburg 2016 17:06.0
40 Ethan Mara Quince Orchard 2018 17:07.0
41 Ben Macek Damascus 2016 17:07.1
42 David Mejia Springbrook 2016 17:07.2
43 Joe Amaya Wheaton 2016 17:08.1
44 Evan Pollack Blake 2018 17:10.6
45 Jonah Rosenblum B-CC 2017 17:11.6
46 Justin Travis Rockville 2016 17:11.6
47 Samuel Blackman Wootton 2016 17:11.6
48 Kevin O'Leary Walter Johnson 2016 17:11.6
49 Mir Pandya Clarksburg 2016 17:10.7
50 Ngoy Jeriel Yamitshi Northwest 2017 17:13.7
51 Michael Thomas Clarksburg 2016 17:14.5
52 Jacob Rains B-CC 2017 17:14.5
53 Chris Thoms Quince Orchard 2018 17:15.7
54 Renato Nunez Wootton 2017 17:16.6
55 Thomas Winkert Churchill 2016 17:17.0
56 Shashank Narayan Walter Johnson 2016 17:19.1
57 John Stout Blake 2016 17:20.4
58 Mac Morgan Richard Montgomery 2016 17:20.5
59 Ben Geertseema Blair 2016 17:21.2
Boys County Championship Team Projections (5+ Ranked Runners Required)
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Rank School Projected Points
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1 Wootton 80
2 Northwest 98
3 B-CC 116
4 Churchill 142
5 Walter Johnson 160
The Ranking Formula
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking
formula compares runners to one another in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the
extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet
is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. The net point exchange will be zero with a few exceptions that I won't
go into right here. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running
"slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult
course like Hereford. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as
possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/19/2015 with a couple notable changes.
Private school runners were removed with the intention of projecting places and times for the county championship 5k course. The points
were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k
times? No, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he would
be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time imaginable,
and he would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide
by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an
assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. But it's not the first or
last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year.
The great thing about the county championship is we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of year
every year. Of course weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The
caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years. The RED line is an average of those
four years, cut off at about 90th place. Under the assumption that this is an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity
high school boys are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my YELLOW projected line to land on the red line as closely as
possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the yellow line. The curvature of the yellow line is dictated by the ranking/points
system. I can only move my yellow line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. You can see that it
is a little conservative for the top 5 to 10 boys and maybe a little over-optimistic for the last 20 boys compared to what we actually
see in the real world. It is the best I can do given the relationship of the ranked runners as dictated by the points system. The
yellow and red lines line up well around 15th place, so I assigned a time of 16:37 to the 15th place runner and all the other times
fell in line based on the points system.
You will also notice that the 2014 curve seems drastically improved after about 125th place compared to previous years. It's because
last year was the first year that 10 individuals per team were permitted in the varsity race.
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