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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/19/2015). Scroll to the bottom to
read how the projected times were determined.
Girls County Championship 5k Projections
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Rank Name School Year Projected Time Points
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1 Abigail Green Walter Johnson 2018 18:34.6 1
2 Sami King Whitman 2016 18:43.2 2
3 Bethlehem Taye Paint Branch 2016 18:47.4 3
4 Emily Murphy Walter Johnson 2016 18:55.2 4
5 Sophie El-Masry Richard Montgomery 2016 18:58.8 5
6 Ciciely Davy Einstein 2016 19:22.9 6
7 Grace Dellapa Wootton 2016 19:25.1 7
8 Jasmine Garrett Walter Johnson 2016 19:28.5 8
9 Zoe Nuechterlein B-CC 2017 19:29.3 9
10 Virginia Brown B-CC 2019 19:29.8 10
11 Amanda Hayes-Puttfarcken Sherwood 2016 19:30.1 11
12 Julia Reicin Churchill 2017 19:34.2 12
13 Olivia Woods Whitman 2017 19:41.2 13
14 Michaela Peterson B-CC 2017 19:49.8 14
15 Sofia Zarate Northwest 2017 19:54.5 15
16 Erin O'Connor Whitman 2016 19:56.1 16
17 Abigail Levine B-CC 2016 19:56.3 17
18 Nandini Satsangi Poolesville 2019 19:58.7 18
19 Katriane Kirsch Walter Johnson 2017 20:04.3 19
20 Mahlet Bauerle Einstein 2016 20:12.5 20
21 Heather Delaplaine Damascus 2018 20:12.6 21
22 Maddie Peloff Sherwood 2016 20:15.4 22
23 Maya Jacobson Quince Orchard 2017 20:17.2 23
24 Catherine Oberfield Blake 2016 20:23.4 24
25 Katherine Ellis B-CC 2017 20:23.9 25
26 Nefrit El-Masry Richard Montgomery 2018 20:24.6 26
27 Riani Carr Blake 2016 20:28.5 27
28 Fiona Whitefield Poolesville 2016 20:28.6 28
29 Cynthia Kipserem Richard Montgomery 2016 20:29.6 29
30 Josephine Brane-Wright Blair 2018 20:31.9 30
31 Yasmine Kass Paint Branch 2018 20:33.9 31
32 Isabelle Sajonia Quince Orchard 2018 20:40.7 32
33 Holly Mordoff Clarksburg 2016 20:42.8 33
34 Anaiah Little-Diop B-CC 2018 20:44.0 34
35 Sarah Shapiro Wootton 2017 20:44.3 35
36 Lily Lippert Clarksburg 2018 20:44.6 36
37 Janet Scott Walter Johnson 2018 20:49.3 37
38 Sadie Keller Walter Johnson 2018 20:49.7 38
39 Eliana Krakovsky Quince Orchard 2017 20:50.3 39
40 Margaret Lilyestrom Quince Orchard 2019 20:50.9 40
41 Julia Johnson Whitman 2019 20:51.1 41
42 Kayla Sadd Clarksburg 2019 20:51.2 42
43 Lena Feldman Whitman 2017 20:51.4 43
44 Marie Caspard B-CC 2016 20:54.4 44
45 Lara Shonkwiler Blair 2017 20:56.4 45
46 Anne Elliott Damascus 2018 20:57.1 46
47 Bianca Zeigler Northwest 2019 20:57.7 47
48 Adna Trakic Wootton 2019 20:58.2 48
49 Madeline Grainger Wootton 2019 20:58.2 49
50 Sophia Scobell Walter Johnson 2018 20:58.7 50
51 Abigail Hines Blake 2016 21:01.5 51
52 Flora Gobet Whitman 2016 21:02.4 52
53 Devi Payne B-CC 2017 21:02.7
54 Madison Silver B-CC 2017 21:03.2
55 Gwen Klein Wootton 2017 21:04.3 53
56 Emily Newcombe Richard Montgomery 2016 21:05.0 54
57 Yasmine Boumaiz Clarksburg 2016 21:05.5 55
58 Jasmine De La Vega Richard Montgomery 2018 21:06.5 56
59 Courtney Cahill Whitman 2018 21:06.8 57
60 Rachel Friedman Whitman 2017 21:07.5
61 Victoria Haass Churchill 2016 21:07.8 58
62 Isadora Germain Blair 2018 21:08.5 59
63 Marissa Branham Northwest 2019 21:09.5 60
64 Lisa Franco Watkins Mill 2016 21:11.5 61
65 Leah Peloff Sherwood 2018 21:11.5 62
66 Emma Walter Walter Johnson 2018 21:12.0
67 Sabriana Carpenter Clarksburg 2016 21:13.0 63
68 Ella Segal Whitman 2017 21:13.7
69 Lananda Correia Northwest 2017 21:14.7 64
70 Jane Griffin B-CC 2018 21:15.5
71 Genevieve Zillich Sherwood 2017 21:16.1 65
72 Cassady Kutz Paint Branch 2018 21:16.5 66
73 Auriane Martin Whitman 2018 21:18.3
74 Tess Horn Churchill 2017 21:18.5 67
75 Lily O'Dowd B-CC 2016 21:19.7
76 Julie Thomasian Churchill 2016 21:20.3 68
77 Susanna Maisto Blair 2016 21:20.5 69
78 Isabel Present Blair 2018 21:22.4 70
79 Hannah Bush Churchill 2019 21:25.5 71
80 Elizabeth Lambert Einstein 2016 21:25.6 72
81 Elizabeth Hepburn Whitman 2019 21:26.0
Girls County Championship Team Projections (5+ Ranked Runners Required)
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Rank School Projected Points
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1 Walter Johnson 69
2 B-CC 75
3 Whitman 115
4 Richard Montgomery 170
5 Wootton 192
6 Clarksburg 229
7 Blair 273
8 Churchill 276
The Ranking Formula
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking
formula compares runners to one another in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the
extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet
is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. The net point exchange will be zero with a few exceptions that I won't
go into right here. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running
"slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Hereford. The most important thing for mobility within the
ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/19/2015 with a couple notable changes.
Private school runners were removed with the intention of projecting places and times for the county championship 5k course. The points
were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k
times? No, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 400 points, she
would be ranked 400 points or 200 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time
imaginable, and she would be 200 seconds (3:20) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point
totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an
assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. But it's not the first or
last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year.
The great thing about the county championship is we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of year
every year. Of course weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The
caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last four years. The RED line is an average of those
four years, cut off at about 90th place. Under the assumption that this is an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity
high school girls are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my YELLOW projected line to land on the red line as closely as
possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the yellow line. The curvature of the yellow line is dictated by the ranking/points
system. I can only move my yellow line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. You can see that it
matches up very well for the top 45 girls, but it is certainly a little over-optimistic for the last 20-30 girls compared to what we
actually see in the real world. History tells us we won't have this many girls under 21:30, but maybe this will be the year the curve
is busted. Who knows? It is the best I can do given the relationship of the ranked runners as dictated by the points system. The yellow
and red lines line up well through the first 20 places, so I chose 11th place and assigned a time of 19:30.1 to the 11th place runner
and all the other times fell in line based on the points system.
You will also notice that the 2014 curve seems drastically improved after about 125th place compared to previous years. It's because
last year was the first year that 10 individuals per team were permitted in the varsity race.
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