Just for fun, fans were asked to predict the winning times and winning team scores. The average responses were as follows: 15:27.02 for the winning male and
17:51.86 for the winning female (Course records are 15:24.99 and 18:04.8). The average prediction for winning boys team score was 70.5 and the average
prediction for winning girls team score was 58.0.
There are plenty of storylines to follow as we come closer to this year's Montgomery County Championships, as the 2016 fan poll shows. Let's review!
Overwhelming favorites on both sides: Actually, looking back on the past few years, there really hasn't been much question as to who would win the county
championships. Aside from Zarate/Woods in 2014, the favorites coming into the meet have won convincingly in the past few seasons:
2013: Chase Weaverling (margin of victory: 28 seconds) and Nora McUmber (46 seconds)
2014: Nora McUmber (29 seconds)
2015: Rohann Asfaw (16 seconds) and Abigail Green (8 seconds)
Running for repeats: This year, fans voted for Asfaw and Green to defend their county titles, which would make it the fourth time in the meet's history
that both the boy and girl champion came back and defended it the next year (Weaverling/McUmber, '12-'13; Jesien/Sinclair '03-'04; Eagleson/Many '87-'88).
Asfaw also has a chance to become the first male since Andrew Palmer to finish in the top three at three different county championships (and that's not
counting his win in the 9-10 race in 2013).
Flyin' Falcons: Fans are high on the Poolesville boys duo of Andrew Lent and Ryan Lockett, voting them in at third and fourth on the ballot. The
Poolesville boys have never put two boys in the top ten; the highest second-place finisher from Poolesville was Bradley Baird who finished 12th in 2000. Fans
also voted the Poolesville boys to finish sixth in the team scores, which would be the highest in school history - they have finished ninth on four
occasions.
Tight team battle: The boys team vote was very close this year, with B-CC beating out Northwest by a mere 12 points. The two teams have yet to race each
other this season. The Northwest boys last won a county title in 2002, while the B-CC boys did it a little more recently (2013). Here's another interesting
trend about boys team champions:
2008-15: Walter Johnson, Churchill, B-CC, Whitman and Wootton
2001-07: Gaithersburg, Northwest, Sherwood and Quince Orchard
What about it, you say? Well, since 2008 it seems that the center of power - at least on the boys' side - in the county has resided in the
Bethesda/Potomac area. In the seven years prior, however, that center was farther north, near the Gaithersburg/Germantown area. Will the B-CC boys keep the
trend going in 2016, or will Northwest shift that center back up I-270? Barring a breakout race by the Wootton boys, however, it does appear that we will
have a sixth straight season without a repeat team champion.
Same old song and dance: Cue up the Aerosmith, we've got another WJ/B-CC girls battle on our hands. Early in the season it looked like this was
definitely the year that the B-CC girls were going to break through and take down the Wildcats, who have won two straight county titles and three straight
state titles (the B-CC girls won the county meet in 2013 before the WJ girls won at the state meet). Their star trio of Virginia Brown, Zoe Nuechterlein and
Michaela Peterson has yet to really run together this season, however, while the WJ girls have been gathering momentum over the past few weeks. Having two of
the top three girls (Abigail Green and Katriane Kirsch) in the pre-meet poll helps, and as of now it looks like Walter Johnson's race to lose.
Youth is served: It may sound like a cliché, but after last year's meet which saw seniors occupy 12 of the top 14 spots, the page has definitely
flipped. Rohann Asfaw and Andrew Lent are the only seniors to finish in the top ten of the fan poll, which features five juniors and three sophomores. There
is obviously no guarantee that the poll results will play out, but there hasn't been a county championship in which only two of the top ten finishers were
seniors since 2005. Furthermore, for various reasons, only four of the runners in the poll finished in the top 20 of the county meet last season:
Andrew Lent, Poolesville: injured
Ryan Lockett, Poolesville: at Gonzaga High School (DC)
John Riker, Wootton: finished 21st
Aaron Bratt, Whitman: did not run cross country
Obsaa Feda, Northwood: did not run cross country
Chase Osborne, Northwest: finished 37th
Seniors... who needs them?: Staying with the theme of youth - this time on the girls side - Abigail Green has a chance to continue the trend of
underclassmen winning the girls county title. Since 2003, only three seniors have won the county title (Nora McUmber, '14; Jessie Rubin, '09; Morgane Gay,
'07). Green will certainly have her share of senior competitors, including Churchill's Julia Reicin and her teammate Katriane Kirsch, but all signs point to
yet another underclassman girl winning the county championship.
Time change: For many years leading up to 2015, the Montgomery County Championships had always been run on a Saturday morning. A scheduling conflict
pushed the meet back to Monday afternoon, and (not coincidentally) it resulted in one of the fastest county meets in recent history. The time change has
plenty to do with it: first of all, it's much easier to run a race in the afternoon, which runners' bodies are more used to, than to wake up early in the
morning and race. Plus the conditions are better, as the humidity and dew are usually gone by the afternoon. This year, the meet will start at noon, and the
varsity races will not start until 2:45, and with the added effect of not having to sit through four hours of school beforehand, the conditions should be
ripe for another quick race this season.
Name
Comments
Wotton Realist
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 09:28:52 PM
Us beating churchill idk about that
Bold prediction
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 09:42:40 PM
Churchill gets 4 guys in the top 22 and gets 2nd
Voice of Reason
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 09:47:44 PM
Honestly if churchill's preseason number 1 didn't get hurt they prob would have been the favorites
Honest
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 09:53:57 PM
Springbrook is taking the dub
Sam Baker's Kangaroo
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 10:13:38 PM
This is definitely Chris Thoms' breakout year. Top 5 guaranteed.
Churchill
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 10:13:51 PM
woottons gonna Woop us
Ryun Anderson
Tuesday, October 18, 2016 11:00:03 PM
My best guess
Northwest
BCC
Churchill
Richard Montgomery
Wootton
Quince Orchard
Whitman
Einstein
Poolesville
Paint Branch
Sherwood
Blair
Gaithersburg
Clarksburg
Walter Johnson
Northwood
Blake
Wheaton
Springbrook
Damascus
Seneca Valley
Magruder
Rockville
Kennedy
Watkins Mill
Og $$$$
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 10:42:54 AM
Nick Karayianis>Garrett Suhr
a blue crow
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 11:33:47 AM
dont forget bout
kennedy
Springbrook
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 07:40:19 PM
Moti Heda ftw
YoungBuck
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 08:32:29 PM
Ebenezer gets a tough buck
cnasseri
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 11:19:05 PM
Ryun, an upperclassman is a junior or senior in high school. Abby Green is a junior hence, she's an upperclassman. Underclassmen are people in 9th or 10th grade. I don't know where you got the idea that only seniors are upperclassman.
cnasseri
Wednesday, October 19, 2016 11:27:32 PM
Let me get this straight, you guys think that Abby Green is only going to drop 6 seconds from a PR she set in the beginning of September on a really hot day? Come on, she's projected to run a 17:18. Be more realistic with your predictions.
Cousin of sister is concerned Watkins mill parent
Thursday, October 20, 2016 07:48:19 AM
What about Preston scherr
westner
Thursday, October 20, 2016 11:32:54 AM
how much of an impact will the wind have this Saturday? also, how much rain will come tomorrow? There could actually be a wind chill on Saturday by the time the varsity races start.
I think on a good day with perfect conditions as many as 8 boys could break 16 minutes, however, with Asfaw leading by so much (potentially), it's basically a race to finish second. Will the motivation be there to push the pace on a cold windy day or will the pace slow and it turn into a sit and kick type finish with a slower time?
Right now the forecast is for sustained 20+ mph winds with gusts well into the 30+ mph range. A WNW wind means that the wind will be in the runners face for a sizable portion of the race, especially when they are running around the pond (with the pond on their left and 355 on their right). I would not be surprised if the times are much slower then predicted.
Ryun Anderson
Thursday, October 20, 2016 12:49:59 PM
@ westner
I think that's a very good point. I always found wind less of a factor during cross country especially when the course is surrounded by woods that sort of cut it off. However, Bohrer Park is pretty open (especially that big loop around the start/finish area) so it's possible it could be a factor on Saturday.
BrekSquad
Thursday, October 20, 2016 01:48:14 PM
I find it hard to believe the race will be as fast as last year. Talent is down a little this year but also the top runners are very different. Lent Lockett Engels bratt riker and others aren't the kind of guys who try to blow the doors off the race in the first few miles. Should still be a great race but I don't see the same aggressive front running style. The runners this year probably race smarter, but a course like bohrer park it's more about being farther ahead of everyone else when you start to break down/pass your threshold as opposed to pacing.
@cnasseri I don't think times from DCXC and track and trail are good indicators of fitness. Races at Manhattan, oatlands, and even glory days are much better predictions of fitness and race performance.
Hope the rain holds off, the section just shy of the 2mi mark can be deadly when it gets wet or muddy.
cnasseri
Thursday, October 20, 2016 02:45:27 PM
@Breksquad how is the track and trail invitational not a good indicator for this meet when it is pretty much all grass, has a fast start, a fast finish, rolling hills, and is a 5k?
BrekSquad
Thursday, October 20, 2016 07:39:59 PM
Just seyin
Thursday, October 20, 2016 10:23:09 PM
Adam Nakasaka tends to go out pretty hard and run up front in most of his races. The man doesn't fool around and it'll push the Riker types who like to hold back a little in the first mile or two.
Confident Whitman Mom
Friday, October 21, 2016 02:24:49 AM
This is Preston's year I can feel it in my loins.
Paul Rudd for President
Friday, October 21, 2016 01:00:28 PM
Sam Baker's Kangaroo I don't know who you but that's a great name. That team was just dominant back in the day #nxrchamps #ithinkthatsyouadamnakasaka
Ghost of Andrew Murray
Friday, October 21, 2016 02:21:14 PM
When you hear the wind whistle in the trees at Bohrer Park they say you can hear my name
