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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/16/2016). Scroll to
the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Girls 5k Projected County Times
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Pl Name School Year Time Points
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1 Abigail Green Walter Johnson 2018 17:18.4 1
2 Julia Reicin Churchill 2017 18:31.4 2
3 Katriane Kirsch Walter Johnson 2017 18:34.7 3
4 Yasmine Kass Paint Branch 2018 18:41.7 4
5 Nandini Satsangi Poolesville 2019 18:46.4 5
6 Heather Delaplaine Damascus 2018 19:02.8 6
7 Zoe Nuechterlein B-CC 2017 19:04.6 7
8 Helena Lee Northwest 2020 19:06.4 8
9 Sofia Zarate Northwest 2017 19:12.0 9
10 Virginia Brown B-CC 2019 19:21.3 10
11 Janet Scott Walter Johnson 2018 19:24.9 11
12 Paula Bathalon Whitman 2020 19:25.0 12
13 Michaela Peterson B-CC 2017 19:31.0 13
14 Morgan Casey Blair 2018 19:33.9 14
15 Logan Rohde Poolesville 2020 19:35.7 15
16 Sophia Scobell Walter Johnson 2018 19:39.3 16
17 Josephine Brane-Wright Blair 2018 19:39.3 17
18 Maya Jacobson Quince Orchard 2017 19:39.9 18
19 Sadie Keller Walter Johnson 2018 19:43.5 19
20 Jessica Trzeciak Wootton 2019 19:43.7 20
21 Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz Damascus 2020 19:44.8 21
22 Alexa Donaldson Sherwood 2019 19:53.5 22
23 Nefrit El-Masry R. Montgomery 2018 20:04.4 23
24 Katherine Ellis B-CC 2017 20:06.2 24
25 Breanna McDonald Whitman 2019 20:06.7 25
26 Margaret Lilyestrom Quince Orchard 2019 20:08.8 26
27 Adna Trakic Wootton 2019 20:10.1 27
28 Sofia Grossman Sherwood 2019 20:13.4 28
29 Michelle Campano R. Montgomery 2020 20:18.1 29
30 Devi Payne B-CC 2017 20:18.4 30
31 Rachel Friedman Whitman 2017 20:18.5 31
32 Elise Durr Gaithersburg 2019 20:21.4 32
33 Erin Chelf Wootton 2019 20:22.3 33
34 Gabriela Jeliazkov B-CC 2019 20:23.0 34
35 Gwenyth Asbury Churchill 2017 20:23.2 35
36 Alicia Lauwers Whitman 2020 20:23.3 36
37 Bianca Zeigler Northwest 2019 20:23.5 37
38 Lena Feldman Whitman 2017 20:24.2 38
39 Madeline Grainger Wootton 2019 20:25.5 39
40 Natalie Nyborg Quince Orchard 2019 20:27.4 40
41 Amelia Guenterberg Sherwood 2018 20:28.4 41
42 Isadora Germain Blair 2018 20:30.3 42
43 Anaiah Little-Diop B-CC 2018 20:30.4 43
44 Gwen Klein Wootton 2017 20:31.6 44
45 Isabelle Sajonia Quince Orchard 2018 20:32.4 45
46 Helena Abbott Walter Johnson 2019 20:32.9 46
47 Olivia White Churchill 2017 20:35.4 47
48 Kathy Pena-Molina Magruder 2018 20:37.0 48
49 Leah Kannan Blair 2020 20:38.7 49
50 Valerie Hubert Wootton 2017 20:40.2 50
51 Lara Shonkwiler Blair 2017 20:42.2 51
52 Lilly Dirlik Einstein 2018 20:42.6 52
53 Eva Loewenstein Springbrook 2019 20:43.1 53
54 Lauren Zhou R. Montgomery 2019 20:44.5 54
55 Sage Kumar Wootton 2019 20:44.5 55
56 Alyssa D'Arpa Wootton 2020 20:45.6
57 Leah Peloff Sherwood 2018 20:45.7 56
58 Julia Johnson Whitman 2019 20:46.2 57
59 Anna Baldwin Wootton 2020 20:48.0
60 Anna O'Keefe B-CC 2019 20:49.9
61 Dimagi Kottage Wootton 2019 20:51.8
62 Lauren Kuo Churchill 2020 20:52.0 58
63 Emma Basset R. Montgomery 2019 20:52.0 59
64 Marissa Branham Northwest 2019 20:53.0 60
65 Madeline Cheng R. Montgomery 2017 20:54.4 61
66 Megan Kendall Sherwood 2019 20:56.6 62
67 Emma Walter Walter Johnson 2018 20:57.0 63
68 Olivia Woods Whitman 2017 20:57.6 64
69 Avery Jackson Clarksburg 2020 20:58.5 65
70 Elizabeth Cassell Quince Orchard 2018 21:00.0 66
71 Jasmine De La Vega R. Montgomery 2018 21:01.1 67
72 Theresa Nardone Poolesville 2017 21:01.9 68
73 Sierra Agarwal Walter Johnson 2019 21:04.8
Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
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Pl School Projected Points
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1 Walter Johnson 50
2 B-CC 84
3 Whitman 142
4 Wootton 163
5 Blair 173
6 Quince Orchard 195
7 Sherwood 209
8 Richard Montgomery 226
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Churchill, Northwest
The Ranking Formula
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE.
The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only
matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked
runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. The net point exchange
will be zero with a few exceptions that I won't go into right here. One of the important things to know is that there is
no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no
benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most
important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/16/2016 with a couple
notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the
county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points
do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he would be ranked
200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and
he would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point
totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once
one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the
ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that
will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same
exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Of course weather is also a factor,
but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity
runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last two years plus a line showing
the average finish time between those two years. The curve of the lines changed a good bit when the rules changed to
allow 10 runners in the varsity race in 2014 so we will only include the last two years. 2015 was far and away the
fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday afternoon on a beautiful day with dry
weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will regress back
towards a more typical year like 2014 (which also lines up pretty well with the previous three years). Under the
assumption that 2016 is an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or
worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the AVG line as closely as possible. I can't
manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can
only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise
ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
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