Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/15/2017). Scroll to the bottom to read
how the projected times were determined.
Projected Boys 5k County Championship Performances
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Pl Name School Year Project Time Points
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1 Adam Nakasaka B-CC 2018 15:51.0 1
2 Obsaa Feda Northwood 2019 15:55.3 2
3 Mark Unger R. Montgomery 2019 15:55.6 3
4 Garrett Suhr R. Montgomery 2020 16:03.5 4
5 Ryan Lockett Poolesville 2018 16:10.2 5
6 Chris Thoms Quince Orchard 2018 16:11.8 6
7 Aaron Bratt Whitman 2019 16:14.2 7
8 John Riker Wootton 2019 16:17.3 8
9 Noah Clifford Einstein 2018 16:17.6 9
10 Zachary Worthman Clarksburg 2019 16:27.0 10
11 Josh Fry B-CC 2018 16:28.6 11
12 Joachim El-Masry R. Montgomery 2018 16:33.0 12
13 Simeon Mussie Einstein 2018 16:36.8 13
14 Jackson Kilosky Clarksburg 2018 16:37.2 14
15 Tyler Wilson Einstein 2018 16:39.4 15
16 Moti Heda Springbrook 2018 16:41.2 16
17 Newell Mulugeta Paint Branch 2019 16:44.4 17
18 Chase Osborne Northwest 2018 16:44.8 18
19 Nicholas Olano R. Montgomery 2020 16:47.7 19
20 Ethan Tagliere Sherwood 2019 16:48.1 20
21 Peter Antonetti Gaithersburg 2018 16:48.6 21
22 Nicholas Karayianis Churchill 2020 16:48.6 22
23 Surafel Mengist Springbrook 2020 16:49.8 23
24 Baraka Sila Northwood 2019 16:50.1 24
25 Ayu Fantaw Northwood 2020 16:55.3 25
26 Sam Rose Davidoff Blair 2019 16:59.2 26
27 Daniel Rogers Northwest 2018 17:01.7 27
28 Gideon Giorgis Paint Branch 2018 17:06.2 28
29 Anthony Meza Poolesville 2018 17:06.4 29
30 Dalton Yu Whitman 2019 17:06.7 30
31 Tamrat Snyder Damascus 2020 17:06.7 31
32 Evan Pollack Blake 2018 17:06.8 32
33 Rodrigo Yepez-Lopez Walter Johnson 2020 17:08.1 33
34 Vincente Maltagliati Paint Branch 2019 17:09.5 34
35 Stefan Ney Northwest 2020 17:09.7 35
36 Sean Enright Sherwood 2020 17:10.0 36
37 Michael Madrigal B-CC 2019 17:10.2 37
38 Obi Onwuamaegbu Whitman 2019 17:10.2 38
39 Richard Qiao Wootton 2019 17:11.6 39
40 Timothy Franklin Gaithersburg 2019 17:12.2 40
41 Jordan La Churchill 2019 17:13.0 41
42 Benjamin Lesser Whitman 2020 17:13.0 42
43 Kyle Emery Churchill 2018 17:14.4 43
44 Leoluca Cannuscio Blair 2019 17:14.9 44
45 Nathaniel Kinyanjui Blair 2019 17:16.5 45
46 Aaron Forest Churchill 2019 17:16.8 46
47 Aidan Smyth B-CC 2019 17:17.0 47
48 Owen Hananel Walter Johnson 2018 17:17.7 48
49 Ryan Temple Blair 2020 17:17.9 49
50 Alexander Moore Northwest 2019 17:18.2 50
51 Eldon Phillips Northwood 2018 17:18.4 51
52 Edward Lee Churchill 2020 17:18.6 52
53 Cooper Hall Quince Orchard 2020 17:20.5 53
54 Jack O'Grady Blake 2018 17:20.6 54
55 Michael Murphy Whitman 2019 17:21.2 55
56 Gabriel Worthington Blair 2020 17:21.2 56
57 Ezra Dessie Paint Branch 2019 17:23.4 57
58 Javel Coleman Northwest 2018 17:23.6 58
59 Timothy Jiang Wootton 2019 17:24.0 59
60 Mitchell Fanger Wootton 2018 17:24.2 60
61 Abou Sow Blair 2019 17:25.2 61
62 Lucas Fernandez Clarksburg 2019 17:25.2 62
63 Ryan Holland Blair 2018 17:26.5 63
64 Miguel Salcido Quince Orchard 2018 17:27.3 64
65 Gregory Garner Whitman 2021 17:27.7 65
66 Amir Van Gieson Wootton 2018 17:28.3 66
67 Joseph Pohoryles Wootton 2019 17:28.3 67
68 Jason Hsu Poolesville 2019 17:30.8 68
69 William Moulec Walter Johnson 2018 17:30.8 69
70 Johan Deyonou Einstein 2020 17:31.2 70
71 Matthew Cauley Whitman 2020 17:32.1 71
72 Jonathan Botello Clarksburg 2018 17:32.2 72
73 Byron Olsen Magruder 2018 17:32.5 73
74 Joshua Tiren Poolesville 2018 17:33.6 74
75 Kolbey Woodard Northwest 2018 17:34.2 75
76 Andrew Misura Churchill 2020 17:37.0 76
77 Walta Neguse Northwood 2019 17:37.0 77
78 Zach Goldman Northwest 2018 17:37.1 78
79 Jackson Shawen Quince Orchard 2018 17:37.3 79
80 Joey Caiazza-Blum B-CC 2020 17:37.8 80
81 Justin Bloomberg Sherwood 2019 17:37.9 81
82 Tsach Mackey Churchill 2021 17:38.4 82
83 Ben Simpson Einstein 2019 17:39.2 83
84 Jairo Huaylinos Poolesville 2019 17:39.5 84
85 Kevin McAuliffe B-CC 2019 17:40.2 85
86 James Cobau B-CC 2018 17:41.0 86
87 Meehir Bhalla Wootton 2019 17:41.4 87
88 Michael Zhang Churchill 2019 17:41.5
89 Sam Eig Clarksburg 2020 17:41.8 88
90 Connor O'brien R. Montgomery 2019 17:42.4 89
91 Ethan Russell Sherwood 2020 17:43.1 90
92 Howard Kirk Rockville 2019 17:45.5 91
93 Tyrees Hibbert Watkins Mill 2018 17:47.6 92
Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
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Pl School Projected Points
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1. Richard Montgomery 127
2. Whitman 172
3. B-CC 176
4. Northwood 179
5. Northwest 188
6. Einstein 190
7. Churchill 204
8. Blair 220
9. Wootton 232
10. Clarksburg 246
11. Poolesville 260
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Paint Branch, Quince Orchard, Sherwood
The Ranking Formula
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula
compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all
ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange
among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running
"slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like
Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/15/2017 with a couple notable changes.
Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at
Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points.
Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking.
You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any
two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the
ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an
assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last
ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great
thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every
year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier
varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last three years plus a line showing the average finish
time between those three years. 2015 was far and away the fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday
afternoon on a beautiful day with dry weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will
regress back towards a more typical year like 2014 and 2016. Under the assumption that 2017 will be an average year, meaning that this year's
top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as
closely as possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system.
I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the
projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
Name
Comments
white
Tuesday, October 17, 2017 08:25:21 PM
all types of messed up no way obsaa is placing 2nd over lockett, suhr, unger, etc
Ranked Runner
Wednesday, October 18, 2017 09:28:35 AM
Pretty cool ranking system. But just saying I’ll run faster than what’s projected
Ryun
Wednesday, October 18, 2017 09:39:54 AM
Wow, there's really no clear favorite this year for the first time since 2012 (and even that was just a two-man race). Can't wait!
E. Stein
Thursday, October 19, 2017 01:59:39 PM
I like the system, but I'd be very surprised to see only 2 or 3 sub 16's, especially Ryan Locket at a 16:10
