|
Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/15/2017). Scroll to the bottom to read
how the projected times were determined.
Projected Girls 5k County Championship Performances
================================================================================
Pl Name School Year Project Time Points
================================================================================
1 Abigail Green Walter Johnson 2018 17:40.0 1
2 Nandini Satsangi Poolesville 2019 18:46.0 2
3 Yasmine Kass Paint Branch 2018 18:56.2 3
4 Janet Scott Walter Johnson 2018 19:11.5 4
5 Jenna Goldberg Walter Johnson 2020 19:12.6 5
6 Morgan Casey Blair 2018 19:14.6 6
7 Jessica Trzeciak Wootton 2019 19:14.9 7
8 Heather Delaplaine Damascus 2018 19:36.8 8
9 Charlotte Turesson R. Montgomery 2021 19:44.5 9
10 Emma Henderson Wootton 2018 19:51.1 10
11 Alicia Lauwers Whitman 2020 19:54.6 11
12 Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz Damascus 2020 19:54.9 12
13 Sophia Scobell Walter Johnson 2018 19:55.2 13
14 Helena Lee Northwest 2020 19:56.0 14
15 Isabelle Sajonia Quince Orchard 2018 19:56.1 15
16 Nefrit El-Masry R. Montgomery 2018 19:56.2 16
17 Logan Rohde Poolesville 2020 20:01.3 17
18 Paula Bathalon Whitman 2020 20:02.5 18
19 Madison Armonda Northwood 2019 20:05.3 19
20 Adna Trakic Wootton 2019 20:05.9 20
21 Emily Gravell Sherwood 2018 20:07.6 21
22 Alyssa D'Arpa Wootton 2020 20:09.5 22
23 Zuri Rashad Paint Branch 2018 20:12.1 23
24 Avery Jackson Clarksburg 2020 20:12.2 24
25 Anaiah Little-Diop B-CC 2018 20:12.3 25
26 Breanna McDonald Whitman 2019 20:14.1 26
27 Sadie Keller Walter Johnson 2018 20:16.9 27
28 Margaret Lilyestrom Quince Orchard 2019 20:19.5 28
29 Erin Chelf Wootton 2019 20:19.5 29
30 Elizabeth Sklaire Whitman 2020 20:19.8 30
31 Emmersen Weinberg Whitman 2020 20:27.5 31
32 Perrin Myers Churchill 2021 20:28.4 32
33 Josephine Brane-Wright Blair 2018 20:32.5 33
34 Michelle Campano R. Montgomery 2020 20:33.4 34
35 Marissa Branham Northwest 2019 20:33.6 35
36 Anjali Iyer Churchill 2020 20:34.4 36
37 Isadora Germain Blair 2018 20:36.8 37
38 Gabriela Jeliazkov B-CC 2019 20:37.7 38
39 Rosalind Van Der Does B-CC 2020 20:38.6 39
40 Joelle Sadd Clarksburg 2021 20:39.8 40
41 Madeline Grainger Wootton 2019 20:39.9 41
42 Ella Gaul Walter Johnson 2021 20:40.1 42
43 Madeleine Blaisdell Whitman 2020 20:40.3 43
44 Carolin Kennon Walter Johnson 2020 20:40.4 44
45 Sofia Grossman Sherwood 2019 20:41.2 45
46 Alyssa McCloskey Clarksburg 2018 20:42.6 46
47 Jessie Williams Einstein 2019 20:47.1 47
48 Leah Kannan Blair 2020 20:48.5 48
49 Brooke Kistler Northwest 2020 20:50.4 49
50 Kate Danzinger Churchill 2018 20:51.8 50
51 Jessica Zito Walter Johnson 2021 20:52.4
52 Jahmei Wyatt Clarksburg 2021 20:55.4 51
53 Camille Gagne Walter Johnson 2021 20:55.4
54 Jamie Grossberg Quince Orchard 2019 20:59.5 52
55 Ella Jacobs Blake 2021 21:00.6 53
56 Alexa Donaldson Sherwood 2019 21:05.1 54
57 Soraya Bernal B-CC 2021 21:05.1 55
58 Anna Baldwin Wootton 2020 21:05.9 56
59 Christina Karayianis Churchill 2018 21:07.4 57
60 Rena Edery Wootton 2019 21:07.6
61 Virginia Brown B-CC 2019 21:08.0 58
62 Laura Koye B-CC 2018 21:08.2 59
63 Mira Diamond-Berman Blair 2020 21:09.0 60
64 Elizabeth Cassell Quince Orchard 2018 21:09.0 61
65 Juliana Capizzi B-CC 2021 21:09.4 62
66 Lauren Zhou R. Montgomery 2019 21:09.6 63
67 Elise Durr Gaithersburg 2019 21:10.4 64
68 Katherine Weaver Walter Johnson 2020 21:12.0
69 Ashley Nguyen Northwest 2018 21:12.4 65
70 Ryan Sandoval Sherwood 2020 21:12.4 66
71 Anna Moore Blair 2019 21:14.5 67
72 Anne Elliott Damascus 2018 21:14.7 68
73 Rebecca Wessel Blair 2019 21:15.2 69
74 Emma Helgeson Wootton 2021 21:15.7
75 Kathy Pena-Molina Magruder 2018 21:15.9 70
76 Eva Loewenstein Springbrook 2019 21:16.6 71
77 Jasmine De La Vega R. Montgomery 2018 21:16.8 72
78 Sage Kumar Wootton 2019 21:17.0
79 Amelia Guenterberg Sherwood 2018 21:17.4 73
80 Helena Abbott Walter Johnson 2019 21:21.0
81 Isabel Present Blair 2018 21:23.2
82 Juliana Ancalmo Damascus 2018 21:23.9 74
83 Bianca Zeigler Northwest 2019 21:24.6 75
Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
=========================================
Pl School Projected Points
=========================================
1. Walter Johnson 50
2. Wootton 88
3. Whitman 116
4. Blair 184
5. Richard Montgomery 194
6. B-CC 215
7. Northwest 238
8. Sherwood 259
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Churchill, Clarksburg, Damascus, Quince Orchard
The Ranking Formula
Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula
compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all
ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange
among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running
"slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like
Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.
The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/15/2017 with a couple notable changes.
Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at
Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points.
Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking.
You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any
two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the
ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an
assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last
ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great
thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every
year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier
varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last three years plus a line showing the average finish
time between those three years. 2015 was far and away the fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday
afternoon on a beautiful day with dry weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will
regress back towards a more typical year like 2014 and 2016. Under the assumption that 2017 will be an average year, meaning that this year's
top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as
closely as possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system.
I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the
projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
|
